中国省域尺度下产业结构多维度特征及演化对碳排放的影响

在中国转向高质量发展及2030年前达到碳排放峰值的背景下,寻找保证经济增长的低碳减排途径是学界研究的热点。利用中国2005—2017年省域面板数据,建立SAR模型,并按八大经济区分别构建PECM模型,研究中国省域尺度下产业结构多维度特征及演化对碳排放的影响,主要结论如下：（1）中国省域碳排放具有显著的时滞性和空间溢出效应。（2）全国视角下,产业结构合理化水平提升对碳排放呈抑制作用,且存在负向空间溢出效应;而产业结构高度化对碳排放呈促进作用,且存在正向空间溢出效应,总体上处于“倒U型”曲线左侧。（3）八大经济区视角下,随着经济发展水平的提高,产业结构合理化水平提升总体上能够抑制碳排放,而产业结构高度化水平提升则呈现明显的“倒U型”趋势特征,具有两面性,发达地区呈现抑制效应,欠发达地区则相反;当前处于“倒U型”曲线右侧的区域多为发达地区。因此,由产业结构高度化提升导致碳排放量的增加依然属于中国多数省份当前发展的固有阶段性特征,而产业结构合理化提升在总体上能够拉动碳排放峰值前移,促使碳排放早日达峰。欠发达地区不应以增大三产份额为目标,盲目推动产业结构高度化水平提升,这将很有可能对区域经济发展产生负面影响;而产业结构合理化水平提升是既能够适应中国多数省份当前发展惯性,同时又能促进减排或排放降速的有效途径。     

Importance of Sulfate Aerosol in Evaluating the Relative Contributions of Regional Emissions to the Historical Global Temperature Change

During the negotiations of the KyotoProtocol the delegation of Brazil presentedan approach for distributing the burden ofemissions reductions among the Partiesbased on the effect of their cumulativehistorical emissions on the global-averagenear-surface temperature. The Letter tothe Parties does not limit the emissions tobe considered to be only greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions. Thus, in this paper weexplore the importance of anthropogenicSO_x emissions that are converted tosulfate aerosol in the atmosphere, togetherwith the cumulative greenhouse gasemissions, in attributing historicaltemperature change. We use historicalemissions and our simple climate model toestimate the relative contributions toglobal warming of the regional emissions byfour Parties: OECD90, Africa and LatinAmerica, Asia, and Eastern Europe and theFormer Soviet Union. Our results show thatfor most Parties the large warmingcontributed by their GHG emissions islargely offset by the correspondingly largecooling by their SO_x emissions. Thus,OECD90 has become the dominant contributorto recent global warming following itslarge reduction in SO_x emissions after1980.     

The cost of crop damage caused by ozone air pollution from motor vehicles

The effects of ozone air pollution on the agricultural sector are an important environmental challenge facing policy makers. Most studies of the economic impact of air pollution on agriculture have found that a 25% reduction in ambient ozone would provide benefits of at least $1–2 billion annually in the United States. This paper extends existing research by estimating the benefits of a reduction in emissions from a major source of ozone formation: motor-vehicle emissions. An agricultural production model is combined with an analysis of motor-vehicle emissions and air quality to estimate the impacts of emissions from six different motor-vehicle classes, at both the regional and national level. The benefits to the agricultural sector from completely eliminating ozone precursor emissions from motor vehicles ranges between $3·5 and $6·1 billion annually.     

不同能源政策下苏浙沪能源消费碳排放高峰估计

中国要实现2030年左右达到CO2排放峰值目标,最终要落实到区域层面上。长三角地区作为中国经济的领头羊,其节能减排政策制定对其它省区具有示范作用。基于经济平稳增长模型对江苏省、浙江省和上海市未来的能源消费碳排放量进行了估计,并模拟了不同能源政策情景对能源消费碳排放的影响。研究表明:(1)基准情景下,江苏省、浙江省和上海市的能源消费碳排放高峰分别出现在2034年、2033年和2032年。(2)不同的能源政策对碳高峰的影响不同。能源结构调整情景和能源效率提高情景下,江苏省、浙江省和上海市的能源消费碳排放高峰都能提前到2030年以前,完成2030年碳排放达到峰值的目标。综合能源政策情景模拟结果显示,同时调整能源结构和提高能源效率,碳减排效果更加明显。     

Impacts of pH and ammonia on the leaching of Cu(II) and Cd(II) from coal fly ash

Many coal-fired power plants are implementing ammonia-based technologies to reduce NO(x) emissions. Excess ammonia in the flue gas often deposits on the coal fly ash. Ammonia can form complexes with many heavy metals and change the leaching characteristics of these metals. This research tends to develop a fundamental understanding of the ammonia impact on the leaching of some heavy metals, exemplified by Cu(II) and Cd(II), under different pH conditions. Batch results indicated that the adsorption is the main mechanism controlling Cu(II) and Cd(II) leaching, and high concentrations of ammonia (>5,000 mg/l) can increase the release of Cu(II) and Cd(II) in the alkaline pH range. Based on the chemical reactions among fly ash, ammonia, and heavy metal ion, a mathematical model was developed to quantify effects of pH and ammonia on metal adsorption. The adsorption constants (logK) of Cu(2+), Cu(OH)(+), Cu(OH)(2), and Cu(NH(3))(m)(2+) for the fly ash under investigation were respectively 6.0, 7.7, 9.6, and 2.9. For Cd(II), these constants were respectively 4.3, 6.9, 8.8, and 2.6. Metal speciation calculations indicated that the formation of less adsorbable metal-ammonia complexes decreased metal adsorption, therefore enhanced metal leaching.     

卫星遥感数据在林火排放模型中的应用

火对大气中的温室气体和气溶胶的增加有显著影响,也是植被的一个主要干扰因子.利用精确卫星火产品对中国林火排放量进行量化计算,对于制定正确的减排战略具有参考意义.采用GBA2000的研究结果,分析了不同植被区的过火区分布情况.2000年中国林地上共有8 587个过火斑块,总面积为10 773 212 hm2,其中阔叶落叶林过火面积最大,为3 674 404 hm2;其次为阔叶常绿林,过火面积为1 141 402 hm2.林火排放计算模型采用各植被带平均生物量和燃烧系数估计火烧消耗的生物量和计算森林燃烧释放的温室气体量.我国2000年林火释放CO2 688 Tg,CO和CH4分别为57 Tg和4 Tg.计算精度取决于森林火灾面积、土地类型图、燃烧效率和排放因子.由于采用的卫星火产品没有对中国区域进行精度评估,据此统计的森林过火区有误差.如果采用更精确的卫星遥感数据,将提高林火释放模型的计算精度.     

An Empirical Study on the Environmental Kuznets Curve for China’s Carbon Emissions: Based on Provincial Panel Data

Abstract

Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory, the authors choose provincial panel data of China in 1990–2007 and adopt panel unit root and co-integration testing method to study whether there is Environmental Kuznets Curve for China’s carbon emissions. The research results show that: carbon emissions per capita of the eastern region and the central region of China fit into Environmental Kuznets Curve, but that of the western region does not. On this basis, the authors carry out scenario analysis on the occurrence time of the inflection point of carbon emissions per capita of different regions, and describe a specific time path.     

Carbon price impacts on sector cost: based on an input–output model of Beijing

Under the pressure of sustained growth in energy consumption in China, the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism is an effective economic policy measure for promoting emission reduction, as well as a hotspot of research among scholars and policy makers. In this paper, the effects of carbon prices on Beijing’s economy are analyzed using input–output tables. The carbon price costs are levied in accordance with the products’ embodied carbon emission. By calculation, given the carbon price rate of 10 RMB/t-CO₂, the total carbon costs of Beijing account for approximately 0.22–0.40% of its gross revenue the same year. Among all industries, construction bears the largest carbon cost. Among export sectors, the coal mining and washing industry has much higher export carbon price intensity than other industries. Apart from traditional energy-intensive industries, tertiary industry, which accounts for more than 70% of Beijing’s economy, also bears a major carbon cost because of its large economic size. However, from 2007 to 2010, adjustment of the investment structure has reduced the emission intensity in investment sectors, contributing to the reduction of overall emissions and carbon price intensity.     

Life improvement programme of producer gas–biodiesel operated dual fuel engines

Biomass fuels have attracted an increase in interest due to the alarming rise in global greenhouse gases and the rapid rise of petroleum prices. Energy security on a sustainable basis can come only with the responsible use of home-sourced resources and not from imported fossil fuels such as coal or crude petroleum products. Partial combustion of biomass in the downdraft gasifier generates producer gas that can be used as the sole fuel or as a supplementary fuel for internal combustion engines. A dual fuel mode of operation, in which producer gas is used as a supplementary inducted fuel along with injected pilot fuels of Honge or Jatropha biodiesels, can be a promising alternative to diesel only usage. Two different carburettors were designed and fabricated to facilitate gas entry at 45° and 90° to the engine cylinder. The engine was experimentally optimised using Honge or Jatropha biodiesels–producer gas combinations with respect to maximum pilot fuel savings in the dual fuel mode operation, optimum air and gas mixing with different tested carburettors. The performance, combustion and emission characteristics of these dual fuel combinations were compared at different load conditions. The results showed that biodiesels of Honge or Jatropha oils–Producer gas combinations with carburettor of 90° gas entry resulted in better performance.     

Effect of mixing chamber venturi,injection timing,compression ratio and EGR on the performance of dual-fuel engine operated with HOME and CNG

Stringent environmental policies and the ever increasing demand for energy have triggered interest in novel combustion technologies that use alternative fuels as energy sources. Of these, pilot-ignited compressed natural gas (CNG) engines that employ small biodiesel pilot to ignite a premixed natural gas–air mixture have received considerable attention. This paper discusses the effect of mixing chamber venturi, injection timing, compression ratio and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) on the performance of dual-fuel engine operated on biodiesel derived from honge oil and is called honge oil methyl ester (HOME) and CNG. The proposed study mainly focuses on the manifold induction of CNG along with HOME injection. However, CNG can also be injected using port or direct gas injector (Lakshmanan and Nagarajan 2010, Energy 35, pp. 3172–3178). The future study will involve these methods of CNG injection. From this study, it is concluded that an advanced injection timing and an increased compression ratio resulted in increased brake thermal efficiency and reduced smoke, hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide emissions. However, nitrogen oxides (NO _x ) emission increased significantly. The increased NO _x emission was effectively reduced with EGR method. A mixing chamber venturi of 3 mm size, injection timing of 27° before top dead centre (BTDC), compression ratio of 17.5 and 10% EGR were found to be optimum for the modified compression ignition engine that was operated on CNG–HOME dual-fuel mode.