Effect on fatality risk of changing from secondary to primary seat belt enforcement

BACKGROUND: Most seat belt use laws originally passed in the United States contained language restricting enforcement to drivers already stopped for some other reason. States that have since removed this secondary enforcement restriction have reported increased seat belt use. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the effect of these law changes on driver fatality rates. METHOD: Trends in passenger vehicle driver death rates per billion miles traveled were compared for 10 states that changed from secondary to primary seat belt enforcement and 14 states that remained with secondary enforcement. RESULTS: After accounting for possible economic effects and other general time trends, the change from secondary to primary enforcement was found to reduce annual passenger vehicle driver death rates by an estimated 7% (95% confidence limits 3.0-10.9). CONCLUSION: The majority of U.S. states still have secondary enforcement laws. If these remaining secondary laws were amended, an estimated 696 deaths per year could be prevented.     

木材在不同放置角度下火蔓延特性的实验研究

选用厚度为2 mm与3 mm的木材,研究了可碳化固体可燃物在静止氛围中不同角度下的火蔓延特性.研究表明,在不同角度范围内火蔓延经历着熄灭、稳定燃烧、加速燃烧以及快速燃烧等变化过程.对两种厚度的木材火蔓延行为对比分析发现,在自然对流条件下,两种厚度木材的火蔓延极限角度分别为-5°,5°.另外,研究了试样上下表面火焰参数与火蔓延速度之间的关系.在10°＜α＜60°范围内,火蔓延速度计算值与实验值能较好拟合.     

中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004

能源消费是碳排放的主要来源。随着中国经济的快速发展,能源消费的急剧增长以及以煤为主的能源结构在短期内很难改变,因此,碳排放不可避免地会出现一定幅度的增加。本文基于碳排放量的基本等式,采用对数平均权重Divisia分解法（Logarithmic mean weight Divisia method,LMD）,建立中国人均碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析了1995-2004年间,能源结构、能源效率和经济发展等因素的变化对中国人均碳排放的影响,结果显示经济发展对拉动中国人均碳排放的贡献率呈指数增长,而能源效率和能源结构对抑制中国人均碳排放的贡献率都呈倒“U”。这说明能源效率对抑制中国碳排放的作用在减弱,以煤为主的能源结构未发生根本性变化,能源效率和能源结构的抑制作用难以抵销由经济发展拉动的中国碳排放量增长。     

Modelling outflow from a ruptured pipeline transporting compressed volatile liquids

The paper presents a mathematical model for predicting outflow rates from a ruptured pipeline transporting compressed volatile liquids. The main focus of the paper is the methodology used to predict thermodynamic properties of interest. The model is validated using experimental data in the open literature. As the field scale outflow data does not include typical operating conditions the model is further validated at higher pressures and longer pipelines by comparing outflow rates calculated using a commercial pipeline simulation package, PROFES. The mathematical model predictions of mass flow rate and pipeline inventory agree well with the measured data and the more sophisticated pipeline model.

The simple pipeline rupture model is a useful tool for consequence analysis as it has a fast runtime on a standard PC. A further advantage is it is more easily, without having to address all of the numerical issues that arise when using a more sophisticated pipeline model. This allows a safety engineer to focus on the potential hazard rather than driving the model.     

生命线工程网络抗震可靠性分析方法的比较研究

生命线工程网络抗震可靠性分析是进行生命线工程系统规划、设计、改造与优化的基础。因此 ,寻找一种高效的适应性强的系统可靠性分析方法对实际工程应用具有重要的意义。本文主要介绍两种高效的网络系统两终端连通可靠性分析方法———递推分解算法和有序二分决策图算法。首先 ,分别对两种算法的原理及实现过程进行了详细的论述和说明 ,并且用c语言编制了二分决策图算法的计算程序。然后 ,利用这两种方法及随机模拟算法对 2 0个以往研究中的经典算例和两个实际工程网络———河南省电力网和上海市浦西供水管网 ,进行了网络系统抗震连通可靠性分析。通过对实例分析结果的比较研究 ,得到了一些经验性的结论 ,以期为优化设计工程网络时选择系统可靠性的分析工具提供参考。研究表明 ,由于递推分解算法具有适应性强和能够求得问题近似解的优点 ,因此有良好的实际工程应用前景。     

膨胀聚苯乙烯热分解动力学分析和寿命预测

针对既有聚苯乙烯泡沫类外墙外保温系统的防火问题,在空气和氮气气氛下对非阻燃和阻燃型膨胀聚苯乙烯泡沫进行了热重分析。样品由10℃/min、20℃/min、40℃/min和50℃/min四个升温速率从室温加热至800℃。热分解动力学参数由Flynn-Wall-Ozawa(FWO)等转化率方法和多参数非线性回归方法(multivariate non-linear re-gression method)计算,结果表明六溴环十二烷(HBCD)阻燃剂可一定程度上提高EPS的热稳定性。EPS在空气和氮气气氛下热解可认为是单步反应。非阻燃聚苯乙烯泡沫在空气和氮气气氛下的热解过程可由自催化n阶反应机理描述。阻燃EPS在空气气氛下的热解机理为自催化n阶反应,在氮气气氛下则为n阶反应机理。基于动力学参数和反应机理,对聚苯乙烯泡沫在不同温度下的寿命进行了预测。     

4种硝酸酯热安定性的绝热试验研究

利用绝热加速量热仪(ARC)对硝酸正丙酯(NPN)、硝酸异丙酯(IPN)、太根(TEGDN)、敌根(DEGDN)4种硝酸酯的热稳定性进行了绝热试验研究,得到绝热放热曲线和热分解特征参数。分析了4种物质分解过程的特点,对测试结果进行了修正。计算得到动力学参数和自加速分解温度SADT,以此作为评估热安定性的判据。结果表明,4种硝酸酯在外界热作用下容易发生分解,反应速度较快,伴随明显的热效应和压力效应。4种硝酸酯的热安定性由好到差排序为:IPN、NPN、TEGDN、DEGDN。     

From conference abstract to publication in the conservation science literature

Every 2 years, the conservation community comes together at The Society for Conservation Biology's International Congress for Conservation Biology (ICCB) to share new developments in conservation science and practice. Publication of findings presented at conferences in scientific journals adds to the permanent record and helps increase the potential impact of the work presented. However, quantitative research on publication rates for meetings relevant to conservation is lacking. For the 25th ICCB, (Auckland, New Zealand in 2011), we examined study publication rates and presenter demographics, recorded titles, number of authors, presenter affiliations, gender, country of the study region, publication status, and elapsed time between presentation and publication. Of the 980 contributions (782 talks and 198 posters), 587 (60%) were published as peer-reviewed journal articles or book chapters. Mean time to publication was 13.7 months for all presentation abstracts and 21.3 months excluding abstracts with corresponding articles that were published before the meeting. The gender breakdown of presenters was almost even (53% male, 47% female), but representation of the countries where the presenting authors were based was skewed. The political units with the most contributions were by far the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Presenters based in 16 different English-speaking countries made up 74% of the total sample, but this did not influence the likelihood of their abstract leading to a publication. Examination of conference presenters and publication of their presentations is useful to identify biases and potential challenges that need to be addressed to make conference communications permanent and increase their reach beyond conference attendees.     

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to quantifying stakeholder attitudes toward conservation in the presence of reporting error

Stakeholder support is vital for achieving conservation success, yet there are few reliable mechanisms to monitor stakeholder attitudes toward conservation. Approaches used to assess attitudes rarely account for bias arising from reporting error, which can lead to falsely reporting a positive attitude toward conservation (false-positive error) or not reporting a positive attitude when the respondent has a positive attitude toward conservation (false-negative error). Borrowing from developments in applied conservation science, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify stakeholder attitudes as the probability of having a positive attitude toward wildlife notionally (or in abstract terms) and at localized scales while accounting for reporting error. We compared estimates from our model, Likert scores, and naïve estimates (i.e., proportion of respondents reporting a positive attitude in at least 1 question that was only susceptible to false-negative error) with true stakeholder attitudes through simulations. We then applied the model in a survey of tea estate staff on their attitudes toward Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in the Kaziranga–Karbi Anglong landscape of northeast India. In simulations, Bayesian model estimates of stakeholder attitudes toward wildlife were less biased than naïve estimates or Likert scores. After accounting for reporting errors, we estimated the probability of having a positive attitude toward elephants notionally as 0.85 in the Kaziranga landscape, whereas the proportion of respondents who had positive attitudes toward elephants at a localized scale was 0.50. In comparison, without accounting for reporting errors, naïve estimates of proportions of respondents with positive attitudes toward elephants were 0.69 and 0.23 notionally and at local scales, respectively. False (positive and negative) reporting probabilities were consistently not 0 (0.22–0.68). Regular and reliable assessment of stakeholder attitudes–combined with inference on drivers of positive attitudes–can help assess the success of initiatives aimed at facilitating human behavioral change and inform conservation decision making.