PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF COVARIANCES OF REGIONALIZED VARIABLES1

ABSTRACT: The usefulness of stochastic models in describing the spatial variability of hydrogeologic quantities, such as permeability, storativity, piezometric head, seepage velocity, and solute concentrations is now widely recognized. In practice, these quantities are represented as the sum of a well-structured component, or drift, and a more erratic fluctuation component which is described statistically through its covariance function. This paper reviews some of the most recent and most promising methods for the estimation of parameters of these covariances from existing data. They are maximum likelihood, restricted maximum likelihood, minimum-variance unbiased quadratic estimation, and minimum-norm (weighted least squares) estimation. The applicability of such methods to conditional and unconditional probability problems is discussed.     

Restoration ecology of riverine wetlands: II. An example in a former channel of the Rhône River

Riverine wetlands, which provide numerous valuable functions, are disappearing in floodplains of a channelized European river. A restoration project has been proposed by scientists to restore a former braided channel of the Rhône River by the removal of fine organic sediments in order to enhance groundwater supply. A precise and intensive prerestoration monitoring program during one year (including comparison with a reference channel) has taken into account several variables and ecological performance indicators measured at various spatial and temporal scales. Three restoration techniques were then suggested, taking into account two characteristics of ecosystem functions for increasing restoration success and self-sustainability: (1) the riparian forest as well as the shores must be preserved or disturbed as little as possible; and (2) the upstream alluvial plug must be preserved to prevent direct supply of nutrientrich water from the Rhône River. Among the three restoration options proposed, it was not possible to carry out the less ecologically disturbing one as it was considered too expensive, time consuming, and difficult to realize. A precise and intensive postrestoration monitoring program, conducted over two years, demonstrated restoration success but also unpredicted problems, such as a locally thick layer of fine organic sediment. As long as a self-sustainable state is not achieved, this monitoring should be continued. Afterwards, a less precise and less intensive long-term monitoring should enable the detection of future events that may influence ecosystem changes.     

DESIGN OF DESALTING PLANTS FOR CONJUNCTIVE OPERATION1

ABSTRACT The selection of an evaporator design must reflect the balancing of captial cost (primarily in heat exchanger surface and vessels) against operating cost (primarily steam cost) to achieve minimum cost. In a conjunctive plant the tendency is to select a low-capital cost, high-operating cost plant. In addition, it is advantageous to use a high-capacity plant which needs to be operated much less of the time than a plant which is sized just at the needed rate. For example, in the study of a possible system to satisfy a future increase of 450 MGD in water supply to New York Qty, a plant of 750 MGD capacity was selected as optimum. This plant, of the advanced VTE-MSF process type, would have a performance ratio of 9 lb product/1000 Btu as compared to 10-13 normally used for base-loaded plants. Steam would be supplied by a multi-unit dual-purpose nuclear power plant. The most economical type of energy supply would be “interruptible”; the steam would be used by a low pressure turbine to generate electricity during periods of peak electrical demand but would be available to the desalting plant at other times. The low pressure turbine would be available as spinning reserve during desalting plant operation. It is estimated that the desalting plant would have a load factor of 27 per cent over its life.     

Simulation of Live and Dead Phytomass Formation and Transformation in Optimized Agrocenoses

The formation and transformation of live and dead phytomass in agrocenoses with a complex horizontal structure are described. These processes are demonstrated to be specific and to be determined by differences in the horizontal structure. Only agrocenoses of a mosaic structure (with square parcels) have optimal conditions for these processes.     

Modeling Pre‐ and Post‐Dam Removal Sediment Dynamics: The Kalamazoo River,Michigan1

Abstract:  The state of Michigan is interested in removing two low‐head dams in an 8.8 km reach of the Kalamazoo River between Plainwell and Otsego, Michigan, while minimizing impacts locally and to downstream reaches. The study was designed to evaluate the erosion, transport, and deposition of sediments over a 37.3‐year period using the channel evolution model CONCEPTS for three simulation scenarios: Dams In (DI), Dams Out (DO), and Design (D). The total mass of sediment emanating from the channel boundary, for the DI case, shows net deposition of 4,100 T/y for the study reach, with net transport (suspended and bed load) of 10,500 T/y passing the downstream boundary. For the DO case, net erosion is 19,200 T/y with net transport of 30,100 T/y (187% increase) passing the downstream boundary. For the D case, net deposition is 2,570 T/y (37% decrease) with transport of 14,200 T/y (35% increase) passing the downstream boundary. The most significant findings were: (1) removal of the low‐head dams will cause significant erosion of sediments stored behind the dams and increased sediment loads passing the downstream boundary and (2) sediment loads for the proposed channel design are similar to existing conditions and offer reduced fine‐sediment loadings.     

Factors in offshore planning that affect the risk for major accidents

The purpose of this paper is to systematically analyse a typical planning process in the offshore industry from the perspective of causes of major accidents, with the ultimate aim of identifying factors that affect the risk for major accidents occurring. We first study and describe a typical planning process for offshore oil and gas operations in Norway. Then we analyse a number of theories of major accidents, to see how the different theories and their explanations of causes and contributing factors can be of relevance for future plans and planning processes. Finally, we review accident investigations to search for evidence of how weaknesses in planning processes can contribute to major accidents through the above identified factors. Also, we try to identify any additional factors that have not been recognised through the theoretical review. This provides empirical support for the theoretical basis. Thirteen factors which directly or indirectly can influence the planning process causing a major accident potential are identified. These are exemplified through a review of investigation reports. The paper suggests that planning process should focus more on increasing quality in the plans at an early phase, with examples from incidents, and illustrate the relation between planning quality and potential for major accidents.     

The Aging of America's Reservoirs: In‐Reservoir and Downstream Physical Changes and Habitat Implications

Reservoirs are important for various purposes including flood control, water supply, power generation, and recreation. The aging of America's reservoirs and progressive loss of water storage capacity resulting from ongoing sedimentation, coupled with increasing societal needs, will cause the social, economic, environmental, and political importance of reservoirs to continually increase. The short‐ and medium‐term (<50 years) environmental consequences of reservoir construction and operation are well known and include an altered flow regime, lost connectivity (longitudinal, floodplain), an altered sediment regime, substrate compositional change, and downstream channel degradation. In general, reservoir‐related changes have had adverse consequences for the natural ecosystem. Longer term (>50 years) environmental changes as reservoirs enter “old” age are less understood. Additional research is needed to help guide the future management of aging reservoir systems and support the difficult decisions that will have to be made. Important research directions include assessment of climate change effects on aging and determination of ecosystem response to ongoing aging and various management actions that may be taken with the intent of minimizing or reversing the physical effects of aging.     

长江源区基于坡面尺度的土壤水热过程模拟研究

长江源多年冻土区土壤水热传输过程机理与模拟,是广泛关系到高原生态环境保护恢复和区域水文过程的关键科学问题。因此,以GEOtop模型为研究平台,以长江源不同植被盖度下（裸地、30%、65%和92%）高寒草甸的观测数据为基础,检验模型对土壤水热迁移过程的描述与模拟精度。总体而言,GEOtop模型需要率定的参数较少,从而减少模型模拟的不确定性,提高了模拟精度。对不同植被盖度下土壤温度、水分和实际蒸散发模拟的NSE 系数基本达到08,表明模型能准确模拟高寒生态系统土壤的水热传输过程,可以作为长江源区土壤水热过程的有效模拟工具     

水环境中的碘化X-射线造影剂及其去除工艺研究进展

碘化X-射线造影剂(Iodinated X-ray contrast media,ICM)在水环境中被广泛检出,因其近期被发现是碘化消毒副产物的前体物而受到越来越多的关注.本文总结了ICM在污水、地表水和饮用水等水环境中的污染现状;分析了ICM的转化产物及转化机制;重点介绍了ICM的去除工艺,包括高级氧化技术、辐射技术以及生物降解转化技术;讨论了ICM及其降解转化产物可能对环境造成的生态风险.最后,本文对未来ICM的研究前景进行了展望.