基于模糊集和改进TOPSIS方法的跑道侵入风险评估

为预防民航机场跑道侵入事件的发生,减轻塔台管制员面临的跑道运行安全的压力,根据国际民航组织(ICAO)颁布的《防止跑道侵入手册》描述的空中交通管制(ATC)因素,建立影响跑道侵入的ATC指标评价体系。首先运用模糊集理论建立评价模型,并计算子指标的模糊可能性值,其值反映所论子指标风险概率。其次,采用改进的TOPSIS方法进行验证,并计算子指标的信度效度值。结果表明,得出的子指标风险值与模糊可能性值的排序一致。最后,根据子指标风险值的大小提出防止跑道侵入事件发生的建议。     

乌鲁木齐市大气污染治理成效的综合评估分析

2012~2013年乌鲁木齐采用了以煤改气为主的大气环境治理措施.利用2009~2014年冬季主要污染物浓度、1993~2014年的直接辐射、能见度、霾日数据,并参考相关文献,从大气环境的化学属性、物理属性两个方面评估煤改气等工程措施对乌鲁木齐市大气环境的改善效果.结果表明, 2013~2014年两个冬季乌鲁木齐市主要污染物PM₁₀、SO₂、NO₂浓度比煤改气前期(2009~2011年冬季)各自下降了26.1%、80.2%、11.6%;细颗粒物PM_2.5中水溶性物质的总浓度比例下降了20.57%.煤改气工程前后PM_2.5中可溶性离子浓度排名前三位的均是SO₄^2-、NH₄⁺和NO₃^-,但后期SO₄^2-和NH₄⁺占据PM_2.5质量浓度比例比前期下降近一半,NO₃^-质量浓度比例变化不大.从大气物理特性来看,煤改气等工程之后乌鲁木齐冬季直接辐射量提高,且2014/2015年冬季的直接辐射量是过去23年中第二个峰值;2012/2013年冬季能见度平均增加了5.7km,是1997年以来的最大值.与上年度同期相比,增幅达35.0%;2012/2013年冬季霾日数比上年度同期减少了15d,降幅达50%.上述结果说明乌鲁木齐市的大气环境得到了一定程度的改善.     

Measuring marginal willingness to pay using conjoint analysis and developing benefit transfer functions in various Asian cities

We need a consistent methodology to measure the co-benefits of climate change mitigation across Asian countries. This study chose a strategy of modifying the Japan-specific life-cycle impact assessment method based on endpoint modeling (LIME) for wider application across countries. LIME has two dimensions. First, it is an environmental science that links the cause-and-effect chain. Second, it is an environmental valuation that weighs four endpoint damages in monetary terms through a conjoint analysis that is derived from an Internet-based questionnaire survey. This article describes the modification of the methodology for application of the conjoint analysis to weigh environmental impacts. We approached the investigation as follows. First, we conducted Internet surveys to measure marginal willingness-to-pay (MWTP). We used a sample of 112 respondents in their 20 s to 40 s, divided equally between men and women, in 11 cities across China, India, and Southeast Asia. The results obtained showed clear statistical significance and were comparable across the cities. Second, we attempted to develop functions (called benefit transfer functions) to simplify the measured MWTP in order to apply it across different Asian countries. The functions were derived through a stepwise meta-analytic method, a type of multiple regression analysis whose independent variable was MWTP and dependent variables were attributes of both respondents and surveyed cities. The functions showed that coal consumption and percentage of nature reserve were dependent variables. Then, the MWTPs estimated from the functions were compared with the measured MWTP for transfer error, which is calculated by the absolute value of the difference between the estimated value and the measured value divided by the latter. The transfer error was below 50% in about 90% of the 44 results (a combination of four endpoints and 11 cities), implying that the developed functions were statistically significant.     

The role of weekly high‐activated positive mood,context, and personality in innovative work behavior: A multilevel and interactional model

This article proposed and tested a multilevel and interactional model of individual innovation in which weekly moods represent a core construct between context, personality, and innovative work behavior. Adopting the circumplex model of affect, innovative work behavior is proposed as resulting from weekly positive and high‐activated mood. Furthermore, drawing on the Big Five model of personality and cognitive appraisal theory, openness to experience and support for innovation are proposed as individual and contextual variables, respectively, which interplay in this process. Openness to experience interacts with support for innovation leading to high‐activated positive mood. Furthermore, openness interacts with these feelings leading to greater levels of innovative work behavior. Overall, the model entails a moderated mediation process where weekly high‐activated positive mood represents a crucial variable for transforming contextual and individual resources into innovative outcomes. These propositions were tested and supported using a diary methodology and multilevel structural equation modeling, on the basis of 893 observations of innovative work behavior and moods nested in 10 weekly waves of data. This information was collected from 92 individuals of diverse occupations employed in 73 distinct companies. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大断层采动“活化”导水特性研究

煤层回采引起的断层“活化”导水是矿井突水的一种重要形式,具有很高的危险性和隐敝性。依托具体的工程背景,建立简化的力学模型和数值模型,根据弹塑性力学和裂隙介质水动力学理论分析不同推进距离时断层面上的主应力和法向应力变化情况,并通过模拟计算得出回采过程中应力变化与塑性破坏特征。研究结果表明,新集矿区F10大型断层在煤层推进至距断层20 m位置时开始有“活化”趋势,断层带岩体位移值陡增到005 m,距10 m时断层面主应力急剧增大,峰值应力向浅部转移,断层带发生明显位移,孔裂隙扩张。为保证生产安全,需预设30 m防水煤柱,避免煤岩体突水通道沟通主干断层及承压含水层,该研究成果可为矿井生产提供一定的参考价值。     

微波促进无机酸对金属腐蚀速率的研究

为缩短无机酸对金属腐蚀性的检测时间,提高危险性鉴定效率,在联合国《关于危险货物运输的建议书-试验和标准手册》关于化学品对金属腐蚀性检测方法的基础上,以微波辐射装置代替传统的电加热水浴,以20#碳钢和7075-T6铝作为金属试片,研究了不同温度下采用微波法与标准试验方法时稀盐酸和硫酸溶液对金属的腐蚀速率。研究表明,金属的重量损失率随着测试温度的升高而增加,微波法下金属试片的质量损失率显著高于相同腐蚀时间和温度下的标准试验方法。微波法在75℃下40h可与标准试验方法55℃下168h的腐蚀效果进行等效,可以明显提高无机酸对于金属腐蚀性的检测效率。     

一起高压除氧器爆炸事故原因分析

除氧器是火力发电厂给水回热系统中的一个混合式加热器,它的作用是除去锅炉给水中的氧气和其它不凝结气体,以保证锅炉给水的品质,除氧器的安全运行是发电厂安全运行的有效保证。本文对火力发电厂一台20万千瓦机组在正常运行时除氧器突然发生爆炸事故进行分析,找出事故原因提出预防事故的措施。     

上海城市河流生态系统服务的支付意愿

条件价值评估法(CVM)是推导环境资源生态系统服务的支付意愿的标准方法之一.以全国城市河流整治的样板工程--上海浦东张家浜为例,采用支付卡式CVM研究方法,对该城市河流生态系统服务的支付意愿进行了分析.共发放支付卡式CVM问卷800份,回收有效问卷646份.获得张家浜生态系统服务的平均支付意愿为195.07～253.04元/(a·户),将研究结果与国内外部分研究进行了比较.讨论了支付意愿的分布形态和范围,对支付意愿与受访者个人社会经济变量(收入、学历、捐款经历和环境态度等)的回归关系进行了较为详细的分析,并对回归结论进行了环境经济学解释.对支付卡式CVM研究中导致支付意愿产生偏差的部分原因作了一定讨论.最后提出了用CVM推导支付意愿的研究方法面对的批评和争议以及CVM研究结论可靠性的环境决策依据.     

秦岭山地松栎混交林土壤养分空间变异及其与地形因子的关系

在陕西省境内秦岭山脉中段油松-锐齿槲栎混交林集中分布的区域设置20 块调查样地,采取土壤样品测定了该区森林土壤0~20、20~40 和40~60 cm 3 个土层的全氮、全磷、全钾、速效氮、速效磷、速效钾、有机质7 项养分指标。通过计算不同土壤养分指标的变异系数并应用典范对应分析(CCA)技术,对秦岭山地松栎混交林土壤养分空间变异与海拔、坡位、坡向和坡度4 项地形因子的关系进行分析。结果表明:①单因素方差分析显示,随着土层深度增加,全氮、有机质、速效氮、速效磷和速效钾含量均呈极显著下降趋势,而全磷、全钾在不同土层中的含量无显著性差异;②变异系数计算结果表明,各土层的7 项养分指标均表现为中等程度变异性,变异系数最大者是0~20 cm土层速效氮,最小者为0~20 cm土层全钾;③从CCA排序结果看,地形因子对不同土层养分变异的影响程度及因子种类明显不同。0~20 cm表层土壤养分变异受地形因子制约作用较小,20~40 cm土层养分的主要影响因子为坡向和海拔,40~60 cm土层养分的主要影响因子为海拔和坡位,而坡度和海拔则是控制0~60 cm整体土壤层养分变异的主要因素。综上所述,地形高异质性的微生境造成了秦岭山地松栎混交林土壤养分空间分布格局的差异。     

基于CVM的城市大气细颗粒物健康风险的经济评估

运用权变评价法(CVM)调查北京居民对降低PM2.5健康风险的支付意愿,结果表明居民为PM2.5年平均浓度降低30%、45%和60%的平均支付意愿分别71.60元/月、85.66元/月和94.31元/月.基于结构方程模型,以风险特征、风险情绪、风险沟通3个维度衡量风险认知,构建风险认知与支付意愿相关模型,分析表明风险认知对支付意愿的影响系数为0.37;风险认知3个维度中风险情绪反映度最高,负荷量为0.95,且风险情绪中“现实满意度”影响最显著,负荷量为0.71;风险特征中PM2.5健康风险发生可能性、后果严重性影响程度最高,负荷量均为0.85;个人特征能直接或通过风险认知间接影响支付意愿,总影响系数为0.47,且个人特征中受教育程度与收入表现出强共变性,共变系数为0.67.