安徽省棉花冰雹灾害风险区划研究

雹灾风险区划是雹灾风险研究的重要内容,对制定区域性的雹灾防灾减灾对策具有指导意义。而雹灾风险评价是开展雹灾风险区划的前提和基础。以我国雹灾频发区--安徽省为例,选择其主要经济作物棉花为承灾体,基于区域灾害系统理论和棉花雹灾风险区划数据库,在“E-H-V-R”四维评价基础上,提出了多技术手段和多方法相结合的“3（E、H、V）+1（R）”维的雹灾风险区划方法,编制了安徽省棉花雹灾风险图,将其划分为淮北平原区、江淮平原丘陵区和皖南山区3个一级区,10个二级区和19个三级区,为安徽省棉花雹灾风险管理和防灾减灾工作的开展提供科学依据,同时为其他区域和其他灾害风险区划研究提供方法和技术参考     

Can Labor Out-Migration Reduce Firewood Consumption by Rural Households in Western Mountainous China

Abstract

The relationship between out-migration of labor in the Qinling mountain area and households’ firewood consumption is explored. Migration and remittances reduce households’ firewood consumption due to increases in both income and opportunity cost of firewood collection. Previous studies have been equivocal because they ignored uncertainty in household economy, which is widespread in forest areas of less developed countries. This study provides additional insight by considering vulnerability and subjective assessment of poverty generated by unstable income and an uncertain future. We provide evidence that the amount of firewood consumed depends on income and opportunity cost of firewood collection, but also on a prudent consumption strategy, due to farmers’ subjective assessment of their future possible poverty. We also find out-migration of labor can reduce per capita firewood consumption but subjective poverty also acts against reduction of firewood consumption.     

Water quality requirements for sustaining aquifer storage and recovery operations in a low permeability fractured rock aquifer

A changing climate and increasing urbanisation has driven interest in the use of aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) schemes as an environmental management tool to supplement conventional water resources. This study focuses on ASR with stormwater in a low permeability fractured rock aquifer and the selection of water treatment methods to prevent well clogging. In this study two different injection and recovery phases were trialed. In the first phase ~1380 m(3) of potable water was injected and recovered over four cycles. In the second phase ~3300 m(3) of treated stormwater was injected and ~2410 m(3) were subsequently recovered over three cycles. Due to the success of the potable water injection cycles, its water quality was used to set pre-treatment targets for harvested urban stormwater of ≤ 0.6 NTU turbidity, ≤ 1.7 mg/L dissolved organic carbon and ≤ 0.2 mg/L biodegradable dissolved organic carbon. A range of potential ASR pre-treatment options were subsequently evaluated resulting in the adoption of an ultrafiltration/granular activated carbon system to remove suspended solids and nutrients which cause physical and biological clogging. ASR cycle testing with potable water and treated stormwater demonstrated that urban stormwater containing variable turbidity (mean 5.5 NTU) and organic carbon (mean 8.3 mg/L) concentrations before treatment could be injected into a low transmissivity fractured rock aquifer and recovered for irrigation supplies. A small decline in permeability of the formation in the vicinity of the injection well was apparent even with high quality water that met turbidity and DOC but could not consistently achieve the BDOC criteria.     

基于GIS技术的生态环境脆弱性模糊综合评价

研究过程中摒弃了以往生态环境脆弱性分析中常有的以乡、镇为研究单元的传统模式,改用栅格单元为基本研究单元,切实反映了区域自然环境特征的非均衡性和连续性,使研究结果打破行政区界限从而具有＂空间性＂;并基于栅格单元首次提出了将＂地理信息系统技术＂和＂AHP-模糊综合评价模型＂互相融合的生态环境脆弱性研究的＂分解-合成＂新方法,使得原本数据信息有限的模糊矩阵扩展成包含大量网格信息的巨型空间矩阵,较好的解决了图层属性单一化与模糊隶属最大原则之间的矛盾。文章从＂模糊隶属度＂层面进行生态环境脆弱性综合分析评价。     

火灾频发暴露我国城市公共安全系统脆弱性

为剖析近来我国火灾事故频发的原因,以上海＂11·15＂火灾事故为典型案例,分析了事件灾害过程和行为特征。结果提示：事件过程所暴露的风险管理疏失;安全基础设施薄弱;应急准备欠缺和应急响应能力不足等现象,凸显我国城市公共安全领域的系统脆弱性。系统脆弱性可能是导致＂11·15＂火灾事故发生与成灾的主要原因,作者认为系统脆弱性存在实质是公共安全体系的结构性缺陷。建议应从制度化建设入手,注意克服系统脆弱性,以加强公共安全保障能力,提高社会管理水平。     

基于对抗交叉评价模型的中国自然灾害区域脆弱性评价

首次提出使用对抗交叉评价（Aggressive-Cross-Evaluation）模型对自然灾害的区域脆弱性程度进行研究。从区域自然灾害的危险性,区域承灾体暴露性和区域自然灾害造成的损失程度构建了区域自然灾害系统的脆弱性评价模型,并通过算例对中国自然灾害的区域脆弱性进行了评价。传统的DEA方法为了保证算法的有效性,一般选取的输入和输出指标的个数较少。对抗交叉评价模型回避了传统的DEA方法的缺陷,继承了DEA方法不需要预先估计权重参数和函数模型的优点,可以全面、客观地评价自然灾害的区域脆弱性。     

综合交通枢纽运营安全集成管理机制的构建

为提高综合交通枢纽(ITH)运营安全管理的效率和效果,从脆弱性的角度,分析综合交通枢纽运营安全事故的机理和运营安全管理的特性,构建综合交通枢纽运营安全集成管理机制。该机制以安全信息、安全组织和安全资源的协调、集成和优化为核心,包含干扰监测、威胁预警、漏洞修复、事故控制、鲁棒性提升和应急与恢复等实施机制。建立包含管理措施和技术手段的支撑体系。研究表明:脆弱性是综合交通枢纽运营安全事故发生的根源;该机制以脆弱性为突破口,通过若干管理措施和技术手段,能够实现综合交通枢纽运营安全的全要素、全过程和全资源的集成管理。     

基于GIS的上海浦东暴雨内涝灾害脆弱性研究

随着全球气候变化和城市化进程的加速发展,城市暴雨洪涝灾害的频度和强度不断加强。灾害脆弱性研究是当前灾害研究的热点,基于灾损率的脆弱性分析方法是当前灾害脆弱性研究的重要课题点与前沿。采用G IS和遥感技术,依据20年、50年、100年、200年、500年、1000年一遇的6个重现期情景,对上海浦东新区开展了基于灾损曲线的脆弱性研究。研究中修正了上海地区的径流模型,基于G IS栅格编制了不同重现期的淹没深度图,实地调查了研究区暴雨内涝灾害的灾损率数据,确定了研究区的脆弱性等级划分,并利用G IS编制了基于不同重现期情景的上海浦东脆弱性图。研究中提出的方法对于沿海城市开展暴雨内涝等自然灾害脆弱性研究具有借鉴意义,研究结果可供区域灾害风险评估和防灾减灾规划参考。     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

风暴潮风险研究进展

中国沿海是全球少数几个风暴潮风险最大的区域之一。受全球气候变暖和海平面上升的影响,沿海地区风暴潮灾害风险水平呈显著上升的趋势。从灾害风险理论出发,在对风暴潮风险的认识、风暴潮危险性评估、风暴潮易损性评估,以及风暴潮综合风险评估等四个方面,系统地总结了目前风暴潮风险研究的最新成果、研究进展和存在的主要问题。总体来看,现阶段风暴潮风险评估研究还比较薄弱,未来的风暴潮风险研究应该由单要素评估走向综合评估,加强风暴潮风险评估的综合性和系统性。随着沿海地区社会经济的发展,应充分考虑全球变化和海平面上升对未来风暴潮风险的影响,完善风暴潮综合风险评估体系,提升风暴潮预报预警能力,为风暴潮灾害的防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。