Bumblebee Vulnerability: Common Correlates of Winners and Losers across Three Continents

Abstract:  It is widely agreed that in many parts of the world some bumblebee ( Bombus ) species have declined, and that this has often been driven by land-use changes that cause reductions in the abundance of food plants. There is much less agreement about how changes in food plants affect some bumblebee species more than others. We sought to identify which species' characteristics are generally associated with the relative winners and losers by comparing the 3 independent bumblebee faunas from parts of Britain, Canada, and China. Using available survey data, we assessed species characteristics, including competition with congeners, climatic specialization, proximity to climatic range edge, food specialization, phenology, body size, and range size. Results of our meta-analysis of correlations showed support for the hypotheses that decline susceptibility is generally greater for species that have greater climatic specialization, for species in areas where they occur closest to the edges of their climatic ranges, and for species that have queens that become active later in the year. The latter characteristic may render a species at a particular disadvantage when they have long colony cycles if there are losses of food plants in mid to late colony development.     

湖南省洪涝灾害脆弱性评估和减灾对策研究

自然灾害灾情受到灾害系统脆弱性和致灾因子风险性的共同作用，而脆弱性是自然环境变化和人为影响因素在一定的时空条件下耦合的产物。同一致灾强度下，灾情随脆弱性的增强而加重，降低灾害脆弱性可减轻灾害造成的经济损失，因此灾害脆弱性的研究对防灾抗灾具有重要的意义。洪涝灾害是湖南省最严重的自然灾害之一。根据长时间序列的气象资料和经济统计数据，选取7项指标，应用数学模型来综合评估湖南省洪涝灾害的脆弱性．揭示洪涝灾害脆弱性的基本特征。结果表明湖南省洪涝灾害脆弱性总体水平较高，并且具有明显的空间分异规律。通过相关分析，表明这种分异规律与实际洪涝灾害情况具有一致性，说明本研究对该区防洪抗涝决策有一定的借鉴和指导作用。最后针对影响洪涝灾害脆弱性的因素和成灾机制，提出一系列可持续的生态减灾工程体系的建设思路。     

河北省水文地质环境变化及其脆弱性分析

河北省是我国乃至世界水文地质环境恶化最严重的地区之一。本文通过分析生态环境和水文地质环境变化的过程和致灾现状 ,指出了其脆弱性累进的原因 ,并提出了遏制环境恶化 ,减轻灾害影响与损失 ,调整人类行为的对策与建议     

海原大地震极震区内烈度衰减异常探讨

宁夏海原大地震极震区所存在的南北两侧地震烈度衰减异常及伴随的震害程度差异现象,严格受极震区内黄土微地形地貌、土层厚度、显微结构、工程地质特性和发震构造断裂的控制。上述诸因素与地震波耦合后,达到进一步激化和放大地震能量的效应,导致研究区内黄土强度瞬间丧失,并因之具更高的地震易损性而加重震害。     

Reducing post-disaster conflict: a cross-cultural test of four hypotheses using archaeological data

Four hypotheses concerning the relationship between climate-related disasters and conflict are tested using archaeological data in a controlled cross-cultural comparison. The four hypotheses are (1) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because local economic conditions deprive polities of tax revenue so that they can no longer suppress conflict; (2) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because existing social inequalities lead to conflicts over differential access to resources; (3) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because migration forces population into condensed settlements ripe for conflict; and (4) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters in polities where leaders tightly control access to political authority because leaders may use violence to maintain control over the resources they use to secure support from other elites. Only the fourth hypothesis is supported. It is argued that understanding pre-disaster political strategies is key to understanding post-disaster conflict.     

Fire risk reduction through a community‐based risk assessment: reflections from Makola Market,Accra, Ghana

This paper explores the level of vulnerability to the hazard of fire that exists in Makola Market in Accra, Ghana, and assesses how this threat can be reduced through a community‐based risk assessment. It examines the perceptions of both market‐stall occupants and primary stakeholders regarding the hazard of fire, and analyses the availability of local assets (coping strategies) with which to address the challenge. Through an evaluation of past instances of fire, as well as in‐depth key stakeholder interviews, field visits, and observations, the study produces a detailed hazard map of the market. It goes on to recommend that policymakers consider short‐to‐long‐term interventions to reduce the degree of risk. By foregrounding the essence of holistic and integrated planning, the paper calls for the incorporation of disaster mitigation measures in the overall urban planning process and for the strict enforcement of relevant building and fire safety codes by responsible public agencies.     

脆弱性基本原理与控制方法

本文从社会进步导致自反性危机出发,通过对风险承载体脆弱性构成要素暴露度、敏感度、适应度的分析,提出了三特征要素递次演化的模型;并根据脆弱性的递次演化的特点,提出了对脆弱性的辨识和递次管控的基本思路;最后,依据对地铁运行安全管理脆弱性的研究,进行脆弱性管理的实证分析。     

Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species’ biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change‐threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change‐threatened species identified with the trait‐based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change‐threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait‐based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List assessments. To achieve this and to strengthen the climate change‐vulnerability assessments approach, it is necessary to identify and implement logical avenues for further research into traits that make species vulnerable to climate change (including population‐level threats).     

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

Natural‐resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural‐resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait‐ and triage‐based approaches encompassing the oft‐overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco‐physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural‐resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real‐world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.     

气候变化对莱州湾地区水资源脆弱性的影响

论文首先分析了在现状年(1993年)供水能力和需水条件下,1960～1993年的气候波动对莱州湾地区水资源供需平衡和脆弱性的影响。然后根据未来气候情景分析了在2000规划年和2020规划年供水能力和需水要求下,未来气候变化(2000～2042年)对水资源供需平衡及脆弱性的影响。在农业需水保证率50%时,2000～2019年水资源供需基本平衡,但2020～2042年水资源短缺20～57亿m³。若考虑未来气温的上升,则水资源短缺进一步加大。因此,2020年以后需在调入56亿m³客水资源基础上,从区外调入更多稳定的水量以保证该地区社会经济的可持续发展。