TNT当量法预测某石化设备爆炸后果评价

以烃化反应器为模拟发生泄漏事故源,泄漏的物料形成爆炸性气体,发生爆炸事故,采用TNT当量法预测爆炸事故后果,通过公式,计算出因爆炸冲击波导致肺出血而引起死亡的概率为0.5的半径.     

A comparative study of US EPA 1996 and 1999 emission inventories in the west Gulf of Mexico coast region, USA

Emission inventory is one of the required inputs to air quality models. To assist in the urban and regional modeling efforts, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has compiled a National Emission Inventory (NEI) for criterion pollutants, and the precursors of ozone and particulate matter (PM). In December 2002, EPA released the 1999 NEI estimates (NEI99), which represent the most recent national emission data. However, the data sets are not in model-ready format for air quality simulations. This present work converts the NEI99 Final Version 2 data sets into Inventory Data Analyzer (IDA) format and processes the data using the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system to generate a gridded emission inventory in a domain covering the west Gulf Coast Region, USA. The spatial and diurnal emission characteristics of the gridded emission inventories are then assessed and compared with those of the National Emission Trend 1996 (NET96). The NEI99 database contains more complete emission records in both area and point sources. It is also found that NEI99 data exhibit greater emissions with respect to point and mobile sources but smaller emissions with respect to area sources when compared to the corresponding gridded NET96 data in the same study domain. The most distinct differences between the NEI99 and NET96 databases are CO emission of mobile sources, SO2 emissions of point sources, and VOC/PM/NH3/NOx emissions of area and non-road sources. The gridded NEI99 data show low VOC/NOx ratios (<2-5) in the urban areas of the study domain.     

突发事件机理体系与现代应急管理体制设计

本文为了增加对突发事件的科学认识,提升应急管理的能力水平,首先对突发事件和应急管理的内在机理进行剖析。通过分阶段、划层次地构建"4L-5S"机理分析模型,将二者划归为统一体系,以理清其逻辑内涵;然后,为顺应时代发展特征,满足应急管理的更高要求,实现应急管理工作从非常态协同应对转为常态化职能管理,对现代应急管理体制加以总体设计。从而,突发事件机理体系设计使得我国的突发事件机理研究逐渐过渡至具有阶段性和层次性,现代应急管理体制设计使得我国应急管理整合出具备现代思维理念的逻辑框架。     

Estimating abundance without recaptures of marked pallid sturgeon in the Mississippi River

Abundance estimates are essential for assessing the viability of populations and the risks posed by alternative management actions. An effort to estimate abundance via a repeated mark‐recapture experiment may fail to recapture marked individuals. We devised a method for obtaining lower bounds on abundance in the absence of recaptures for both panmictic and spatially structured populations. The method assumes few enough recaptures were expected to be missed by random chance. The upper Bayesian credible limit on expected recaptures allows probabilistic statements about the minimum number of individuals present in the population. We applied this method to data from a 12‐year survey of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the lower and middle Mississippi River (U.S.A.). None of the 241 individuals marked was recaptured in the survey. After accounting for survival and movement, our model‐averaged estimate of the total abundance of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old in the study area had a 1%, 5%, or 25% chance of being <4,600, 7,000, or 15,000, respectively. When we assumed fish were distributed in proportion to survey catch per unit effort, the farthest downstream reach in the survey hosted at least 4.5–15 fish per river kilometer (rkm), whereas the remainder of the reaches in the lower and middle Mississippi River hosted at least 2.6–8.5 fish/rkm for all model variations examined. The lower Mississippi River had an average density of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old of at least 3.0–9.8 fish/rkm. The choice of Bayesian prior was the largest source of uncertainty we considered but did not alter the order of magnitude of lower bounds. Nil‐recapture estimates of abundance are highly uncertain and require careful communication but can deliver insights from experiments that might otherwise be considered a failure.     

湖北省PM2.5与PM10比值分析及PM2.5时空分布特征研究

基于2012年-2014年湖北省大气污染物监测数据,通过数据反演方法,得到湖北省17个城市的PM2.5年均浓度.利用ArcGIS绘制出各城市不同年份的颗粒物浓度空间分布图,并对其进行分析.结果表明,2012年-2014年间,湖北省17个城市PM2.5与PM10年均浓度比值为0.66,PM2.5年均浓度超出国家二级标准,整体呈现上升趋势.城市方面,在多数城市PM2.5与PM10浓度上升的同时,仅武汉、黄冈和天门3个城市颗粒物浓度2014年较2013年有所下降,且武汉市PM2.5浓度下降率达12.8%,表明武汉市近两年来采取的政策措施具有较好的可行性和有效性.     

城区机动车尾气排放量与雾霾关系研究

近年来雾霾严重影响到了人们正常的生活和身体健康,许多报道都将机动车尾气看做是雾霾的"元凶".G20期间,在柯桥区及周边区域几乎全部企业都处于停产状态下,根据柯桥区域机动车限行前后的数量与空气报告得出的数据显示:PM2.5浓度没有随着机动车减少而降低,汽车的尾气对PM2.5浓度的影响有限,机动车尾气是雾霾的"元凶"的说法有些言过其实.     

长春市春季PM2.5中金属污染与潜在生态风险评价研究

2014年春季采集了长春市大气PM2.5样品,测定了PM2.5及其17种金属元素的含量.PM2.5质量浓度为175.2±75.1μg/m3,变异系数为0.44,环境重污染日与优良日空气质量差异较大.PM2.5中金属元素平均含量顺序为Ca>Fe>K>Mg>Al>Zn>Ti>Mn>Pb>As>Cu>V>Ni>Cr>Co>Ba>Cd.采用富集因子法和潜在生态风险指数法对PM2.5中金属进行了评价.其中Cd、As、Zn、Pb、Cu富集因子大于100.金属综合潜在生态风险等级为极强生态风险,Cd的贡献率为83.2%,受人类活动干扰严重.     

烟花禁燃对南京市春节期间PM2.5及其组分的影响研究

对2014年、2015年两年春节期间南京市空气质量监测数据进行分析,探讨禁止燃放烟花爆竹规定实施前后空气质量变化情况.结果表明:烟花爆竹燃放使得空气质量达重污染,且空气中的PM2.5质量浓度迅速上升,出现局地短时间峰值,同时会使PM2.5中的水溶性离子组分含量也急剧升高,其中与烟花爆竹主要成分基本一致的SO2-4、Cl-、K+和Mg2+攀升迅速;禁止燃放烟花爆竹对空气质量改善有显著作用,2015年春节禁燃后,南京市空气质量均达标率同比上升4成以上,春节期间PM2.5平均质量浓度,同比改善56%;PM2.5中的水溶性离子组分也基本处于正常监测范围,较少出现波动.     

Phenomenological compensation of thermally caused position and orientation errors of rotary axes

Thermal errors of machine tools are one of the major sources of inaccuracy. Therefore, the reduction of temperature induced deviations or the compensation of the resulting tool center point (TCP) errors have been of strong interest to the manufacturing industry for a couple of years. Up to now, the observation of the environment, the main spindle, the linear axes and the machine bed were in the focus of research, but with the rising demand for 5-axis machine tools and the increasing requirements regarding their accuracy, the analysis of the thermal behavior of rotary axes becomes more and more important. This paper gives an overview of corresponding thermal measurements of machine tools. The thermal behavior of rotary and swiveling axes is analyzed in detail. A simulation model and an approach for a phenomenological compensation of the TCP error are introduced and verified by measurements.     

如何提高压差法测定BOD_5标样考核合格率

针对压差法测定生化需氧量的技术特点,通过总结日常分析、标样考核取得的经验,提出了想要提高压差法测定BOD标样考核合格率应注意的问题。