Interactions between cod, herring and sprat in the changing environment of the Baltic Sea: A dynamic model analysis

The interactions between cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) in the Central Baltic Sea were examined with a simple dynamic model, an alternative to more complicated and data-demanding multispecies and ecosystem models. The main aims of the study were to compare the effect of alternative structures on the model output and examine the control relationships in the fish assemblage under different environmental conditions. The effect of environmental conditions was modelled using a stock-recruitment equation for cod incorporating an environmental index. The model output was especially sensitive to the functional response in predation by cod on herring and sprat. The type II functional response led to a collapse of the clupeid stocks when cod was abundant, while the type III response produced more realistic stock dynamics. According to the simulations, an abundant cod stock was able to keep the sprat stock at a low level, while the herring stock was less affected and benefited from the decreased density of sprat. Simulation of different fishing scenarios indicated that reducing fishing mortality to the level currently advised by ICES would allow the recovery of the cod stock even in unfavourable environmental conditions.     

Modeling eelgrass spatial response to nutrient abatement measures in a changing climate

For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbidity, and a wave model for predicting the future hydrodynamics in the coastal area. Using this, eelgrass distribution was modeled for different combinations of nutrient scenarios and future wind fields. We are the first to demonstrate that while under a business as usual scenario overall eelgrass area will not recover, nutrient reductions that fulfill the Helsinki Commission’s Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) are likely to lead to a substantial areal expansion of eelgrass coverage, primarily at the current distribution’s lower depth limits, thereby overcompensating losses in shallow areas caused by a stormier climate.     

Stable-isotope probing of bacterial community for dissolved inorganic carbon utilization in Microcystis aeruginosa-dominated eutrophic water

Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is an important source of carbon in aquatic ecosystems, especially under conditions of increased frequency of cyanobacterial bloom. However, the importance of bacteria in direct or indirect utilization of DIC has been widely overlooked in eutrophic freshwater. To identify the functional bacteria that can actively utilize DIC in eutrophic freshwater during cyanobacterial bloom, stable-isotope probing (SIP) experiments were conducted on eutrophic river water with or without inoculation with cyanobacteria (Microcystis aeruginosa). Our 16S rRNA sequencing results revealed the significance of Betaproteobacteria, with similar relative abundance as Alphaproteobacteria, in the active assimilation of H¹³CO₃^? into their DNA directly or indirectly, which include autotrophic genera Betaproteobacterial ammonia-oxidizing bacteria. Other bacterial groups containing autotrophic members, e.g. Planctomycetes and Nitrospira, also presented higher abundance among free-living bacteria in water without cyanobacteria. Microcystis aggregates showed a preference for some specific bacterial members that may utilize H¹³CO₃^? metabolized by Microcystis as organic matter, e.g. Bacteroidetes (Cytophagales, Sphingobacteriales), and microcystin-degrading bacteria Betaproteobacteria (Paucibacter/Burkholderiaceae). This study provides some valuable information regarding the functional bacteria that can actively utilize DIC in eutrophic freshwater.     

Assessing the costs and environmental benefits of IMO regulations of ship-originated SOx and NOx emissions in the Baltic Sea

To assess the value of the environmental benefits of the Sulphur Emission regulation (SECA) that came into force in 2015, changes in depositions of SOx and NOx from ship exhaust gas emissions were modelled and monetized for the Baltic Sea region for the years 2014 and 2016. During this period, the total deposition of SOx in the study area decreased by 7.3%. The decrease in ship-originated SOx deposition from 38 kt to 3.4 kt (by over 88%) was translated into a monetary value for the ecosystem impacts of nearly 130 million USD, according to the EcoValue08 model. This is less than the modelled health benefits, but it is not insignificant. For NOx, there was no decreasing trend. The exceedance of the critical loads of SOx and NOx was also estimated. The effect of Baltic shipping on the exceedance of critical loads of acidification after SECA is very small, but Baltic shipping still has a considerable effect on the exceedance of critical loads for eutrophication.     

Vertical and spatial distribution of biogenic silica in the sediment of the gulf of Riga,Baltic Sea

The vertical and spatial concentration trends of biogenic silica (BSi) were investigated in a variety of sediment types from the Gulf of Riga. These trends were compared with the concentration of organic carbon to examine how variations in the mass sedimentation and the dissolution rate of BSi versus bacterially mediated oxidation of organic matter affect the distribution of BSi in different environments. The effects of important physical and biogeochemical factors on the distribution of BSi have also been examined.

The concentration of BSi in the surface sediment at accumulation bottoms ranges between 0.8–1.5 mmol/g with an average concentration of 1.1 mmol/g. This is about two times the concentration that has been reported in similar sediments in the open Baltic proper. Much lower concentrations were measured in erosion and transitional areas; on average around 0.2 and 0.6 mmol/g, respectively.

A comparison between recent sedimentation rate measurements (²¹⁰Pb) and concentrations of BSi within different accumulation bottoms suggests an approximate inverse relationship with each other. The importance of variation in the sedimentation rate on the surface BSi concentration is supported by the fact that higher C_org/BSi ratios are found in periphery accumulation zones close to transition areas (larger supply of carbon rich allochthonous material that dilutes settled amounts of BSi) than at accumulation bottoms in the central part of the Gulf. The C_org/BSi ratio in the sediment is always lower than in living siliceous algae which shows that the microbial degradation of organic carbon is always greater than the inorganic dissolution of BSi, irrespective of the assemblage of silica and non‐silica species.

The general vertical concentration pattern at accumulation sites showed a decreased concentration with increased depth down to 2–6 cm below seafloor where the concentration gradually equalizes. The concentration in the equalizing zone is on average about 20% lower than in the uppermost centimeter. This implies that the main part of the BSi entering the accumulation bottoms is permanently buried and that a great amount of silica already has been released during halmyrolysis. The spatial and vertical BSi trends at sites in transitional and erosional areas reflects prevailing sedimentation conditions with a low concentration in sections with a dominance of sand and gravel (no deposition of fine material) and a higher concentration in the sections containing stiff glacial clay (former accumulation area).

The average annual burial amount of BSi in the Gulf has been estimated to be around 50 000 tons of which most is buried in accumulation bottoms outside the central muddy part of the Gulf. The buried amount is about 60% of the annual river load of silica.     

A critique of the official report on the evacuation of the World Trade Center: continued doubts

This paper criticises the conclusions and the unanswered questions in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)'s official report on the evacuation of the World Trade Center in New York City, United States, on 11 September 2001. It reviews the extent to which the report disregards several conventional statistical methods and comments on the NIST's refusal to share the machine‐readable data file with the scientific community for replication and further analysis. Problems lie in the sampling methods employed, the treatment of missing data, the use of ordinary least squares (OLS) with binary dependent variables, the failure to document the scalability of the scales used, the lack of tests to check for constant error variance, and the absence of overall fit tests of the model. There are also conceptual and theoretical issues, such as the absence in the report of considerations of the influence of group‐level processes and their impact on the collective behaviour of evacuating collectivities.     

A proposal for a long-term baseline phytobenthos monitoring programme for the Finnish Baltic coastal waters: monitoring submerged rocky shore vegetation

Several local surveys on the submerged vegetation have been conducted in past decades along the Finnish Baltic coastal areas. Surveys have been carried out by using various methods,which make the temporal comparisons of the results difficult.The need of a joint programme for coastal phytobenthic monitoringis emphasised by the Nordic Council of Ministers and HELCOM. TheFinnish coastal phytobenthic monitoring programme complements theBaltic HELCOM monitoring programme (COMBINE). It is primarily designed to reveal the effects of eutrophication. The programmeincludes general principles for selection of monitoring areas aswell as a proposal for monitored habitats, communities and species. The need of evaluated and tested field methods, datacollecting, interpretation and data storage are addressed in theQuality Assurance part. The cost-efficiency is secured by integrating the phytobenthos programme with the coastal water monitoring for obtaining the supporting data such like salinity,temperature and nutrients. In the design of the monitoring programme a special interest is paid on areas with high protection values such as Natura 2000 or HELCOM's BSPA (Baltic Sea Protected Areas) or on aspects that would support the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive.     

Seasonal and Regional Patterns in Performance for a Baltic Sea Drainage Basin Hydrologic Model

This study evaluates the ability of the Catchment SIMulation (CSIM) hydrologic model to describe seasonal and regional variations in river discharge over the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin (BSDB) based on 31 years of monthly simulation from 1970 through 2000. To date, the model has been successfully applied to simulate annual fluxes of water from the catchments draining into the Baltic Sea. Here, we consider spatiotemporal bias in the distribution of monthly modeling errors across the BSDB since it could potentially reduce the fidelity of predictions and negatively affect the design and implementation of land‐management strategies. Within the period considered, the CSIM model accurately reproduced the annual flows across the BSDB; however, it tended to underpredict the proportion of discharge during high‐flow periods (i.e., spring months) and overpredict during the summer low flow periods. While the general overpredictions during summer periods are spread across all the subbasins of the BSDB, the underprediction during spring periods is seen largely in the northern regions. By implementing a genetic algorithm calibration procedure and/or seasonal parameterization of subsurface water flows for a subset of the catchments modeled, we demonstrate that it is possible to improve the model performance albeit at the cost of increased parameterization and potential loss of parsimony.     

Coherence between marine and land use planning: public attitudes to landscapes in the context of siting a wind park along the Latvian coast of the Baltic Sea

The aim of this paper is to contribute to coherence in marine, coastal and land use planning and management from the perspective of landscape values. At a time when new sea uses are emerging and marine spatial planning laws and regulations are being adopted, but have not yet been put into practice, research studies are required that provide spatial planners with informed insights concerning public stakeholder attitudes to controversial policies. The undertaken research explored the attitudes of two important social groups (local residents and tourists/recreational users) regarding locating wind parks in the marine and/or terrestrial environment along the Latvian coast of the Baltic Sea. The results of the study indicate that both groups support land-based wind park development versus offshore. Moreover, the visibility of wind turbines influences the willingness of tourists to visit recreation sites and impacts directly on their duration of stay. Research findings indicate that policy makers and spatial planners from both marine and land domains should adopt a broader and more integrated approach when setting priorities and allocating space for development activities where both domains are involved.     

Tropical arboreal ant mosaics: innate attraction and imprinting determine nest site selection in dominant ants

The modalities of nest site selection have, until now, been a key factor missing in the understanding of the arboreal ant mosaic, the manipulation of which could be used to favour one ant species to the detriment of others in biological control. We compared two dominant African arboreal ants of economic importance, Tetramorium aculeatum (Myrmicinae) and Oecophylla longinoda (Formicinae). The two species differed in terms of innate attraction to nesting site plants, their hierarchies of attractiveness being nearly inverse. Winged females and workers were confronted with choice tests using four plant species. By using winged females and workers originating from one of the plants to be tested, we showed the existence of a familiarisation process which can supersede innate attraction in both species. We recorded the same effect in neonatal workers bred in the laboratory in contact with a tested plant for 25 days after emergence, while mature workers could not be conditioned. There is, therefore, early learning, with a sensitive period after which the influence of the environment ceases, suggesting that this is a true imprinting process. Choice tests using neonates produced from larvae and pupae bred in the laboratory in contact with the leaves of each tested plant permitted us to demonstrate the existence of pre-imaginal learning. Nest site selection therefore depends on innate selective attraction and on environmental factors whose effect begins at the larval stage. There is, therefore, the potential to “control” imprinting, allowing one ant species to be favoured to the detriment of others in monospecific tree crop plantations. Received: 25 May 1998 / Accepted after revision: 9 October 1998