Food web assessments in the Baltic Sea: Models bridging the gap between indicators and policy needs

Ecosystem-based management requires understanding of food webs. Consequently, assessment of food web status is mandatory according to the European Union’s Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) for EU Member States. However, how to best monitor and assess food webs in practise has proven a challenging question. Here, we review and assess the current status of food web indicators and food web models, and discuss whether the models can help addressing current shortcomings of indicator-based food web assessments, using the Baltic Sea as an example region. We show that although the MSFD food web assessment was designed to use food web indicators alone, they are currently poorly fit for the purpose, because they lack interconnectivity of trophic guilds. We then argue that the multiple food web models published for this region have a high potential to provide additional coherence to the definition of good environmental status, the evaluation of uncertainties, and estimates for unsampled indicator values, but we also identify current limitations that stand in the way of more formal implementation of this approach. We close with a discussion of which current models have the best capacity for this purpose in the Baltic Sea, and of the way forward towards the combination of measurable indicators and modelling approaches in food web assessments. Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01692-x.     

Effect of potential HONO sources on peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) formation in eastern China in winter

As an important secondary photochemical pollutant, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) has been studied over decades, yet its simulations usually underestimate the corresponding observations, especially in polluted areas. Recent observations in north China found unusually high concentrations of PAN during wintertime heavy haze events, but the current model still cannot reproduce the observations, and researchers speculated that nitrous acid (HONO) played a key role in PAN formation. For the first time we systematically assessed the impact of potential HONO sources on PAN formation mechanisms in eastern China using the Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model in February of 2017. The results showed that the potential HONO sources significantly improved the PAN simulations, remarkably accelerated the RO_x (sum of hydroxyl, hydroperoxyl, and organic peroxy radicals) cycles, and resulted in 80%–150% enhancements of PAN near the ground in the coastal areas of eastern China and 10%–50% enhancements in the areas around 35–40°N within 3 km during a heavy haze period. The direct precursors of PAN were aldehyde and methylglyoxal, and the primary precursors of PAN were alkenes with C > 3, xylenes, propene and toluene. The above results suggest that the potential HONO sources should be considered in regional and global chemical transport models when conducting PAN studies.     

Simulation of three-stage operating temperature for supersaturation water-based condensational growth tube

In order to realize accurate dynamic control of supersaturation and to study condensation growth characteristics of nanoparticles through different levels of super saturation,a series of parametric analyses and systematic comparisons between two-stage and three-stage operating temperature designs were simulated with COMSOL Multiphysics.The simulation results showed that the three-stage operating temperature did not change peak supersaturation compared with two operating temperatures,and the three-stage operating temperature was superior in decreasing the amount of water vapor and the temperature,thus lowering particle loss and variation in detection and collection.The peak supersaturation level increased by 0.3 as the flow rate increased from 0.6 to 2.0 L/min,but the supersaturation peak moved from 0.0027 z0 to 0.08 z0(i.e.,the growth time and the final size decreased by 40%).Peak supersaturation increased as the temperature difference increased or the temperature difference window was shifting left,and minimum activation size decreased.Shifting the 70℃temperature difference window from 9℃,79℃-1℃,71℃for the condenser and initiator temperatures resulted in peak supersaturation in the centerline being above 5.8,and the activation size changed as low as 1 nm.Experiments with flow rates varying by a factor of 2.5(from 0.6 to 1.5 L/min) resulted in a final size decrease of 43%(from 3.2 to 1.8 μm),and experimental results of outlet particle size distributions were equivalent with theoretical analysis as the operating temperature was changed.     

美国资产证券化中的政府作用对我国的借鉴

美国政府在资产证券化创设过程中发挥了巨大的作用。为推动我国资产证券化的开展，我国政府可借鉴美国做法，采取修订法律、营造金融环境、设置政府机构等措施。     

Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed

Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km²) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and management changes under multiple scenarios up to the 2050s. The combined effect of climate and land use change on N-NO₃ and P-PO₄ loads is an increase by 20–60 and 24–31 %, respectively, depending on the intensity of future agricultural usage. Using a scenario that assumes a major shift toward a more intensive agriculture following the Danish model would bring significantly higher crop yields but cause a great deterioration of water quality. Using vegetative cover in winter and spring (VC) would be a very efficient way to reduce future P-PO₄ loads so that they are lower than levels observed at present. However, even the best combination of measures (VC, buffer zones, reduced fertilization, and constructed wetlands) would not help to remediate heavily increased N-NO₃ loads due to climate change and agricultural intensification.     

Steady states and sensitivities of commonly used pelagic ecosystem model components

Pelagic, coupled ocean circulation-ecosystem models, are widely used in climate research. These tools aim to quantify fluxes of nutrients and carbon in the ocean and are, increasingly, the base of future projections. For this purpose it is crucial to quantify and identify the sources of uncertainties. In contrast to physical models, the underlying equations for ecosystem models are derived from empirical relationships rather than based on first principles. This resulted in the development of a multitude of different ecosystem models - different in respect to both, underlying principles and complexity. Clearly, the question arises, to what extent the sensitivities of these models are comparable.This study focuses on the intrinsic dynamics of some widely used, simple (containing 2-3 prognostic variables) ecosystem models in a 0-D framework (i.e., comprising only the well-mixed oceanic surface layer). A suite of differing model approaches is tuned such that their behavior is similar. The setup resembles the well-mixed oceanic surface layer in the Baltic proper. It is illustrated that strong differences between the model approaches appear due to exemplary, anticipated changes in the external nutrient and light conditions. Herewith, we demonstrate the well-known, but rarely demonstrated fact that, apparent consistency between modeled prognostic variables with today's data bases is not necessarily a good measure of forecast skill. The causes which lead to the different sensitivities are illustrated by considering the steady state solutions. It is pointed out, that apparently small changes in the model formulations can result in very different dynamical behavior and an enormous spread between the model approaches, despite the feasibility to tune a common behavior in a limited range of light and nutrient supply. In our examples, the sensitivity is mainly a function of the formulation of the loss rate of phytoplankton. It is thus, in particular, the formulation of highly unknown heteorotrophic processes that determines the model sensitivity.     

Worker policing and nest mate recognition in the ant <Emphasis Type="Italic">Formica fusca</Emphasis>

A conflict over male production arises in social insects where workers are able to lay unfertilized male eggs. This happens because each female (queen or worker) is most closely related to her own sons and is thus predicted to reproduce. The conflict is modulated by worker policing where workers prevent each other from reproducing by aggression or egg cannibalism. In this study, we show that in the ant Formica fusca, worker policing occurs by egg cannibalism rather than by overt aggression among workers. Furthermore, we show that, contrary to bees, wasps and other ant species, egg discrimination in F. fusca is not based only on a universal queen signature chemical and that nest mate recognition of eggs occurs.     

The prediction of scenic beauty from landscape content and composition

Two studies were conducted to examine distance classes of vegetation (foreground, middleground and background) and scene composition (presence of vegetation in left, center or right section of the image) as predictors of perceived scenic beauty. In study one, 41 students rated 63 landscape scenes with regard to scenic beauty. The Scenic Beauty Estimation Method was used to derive interval scale beauty values (SBEs). For each landscape image, areal measures of vegetation in each distance class and for each vertical section were taken and used as predictors. Presence of haze, clouds and human impacts were also recorded. Among the most important contributors to scenic beauty were amount of center middleground vegetation, and center background vegetation. Left foreground vegetation and right foreground vegetation were found to have significant and opposing regression weight signs—negative for the left and positive for the right. Study two was conducted to determine whether these opposing regression weight signs for foreground vegetation were due to a perceptual right-left bias or to some specific content in the image itself. In the second study, the photographic slides used to present landscape scenes to subjects were reversed so that the content which was previously on the right was now left, and vice versa. Thirty-nine students rated the reversed slides with regard to their scenic beauty. The signs of the regression weights in study two shifted such that left foreground was now positively valued and right foreground was negatively valued. This finding suggests that viewers are sensitive to foreground content and its placement in the image, and not simply to one side of the field of vision.     

Dilemmas and advances in corporate social responsibility in Brazil. The work of the Ethos Institute

This article discusses the development of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in Brazil from the perspective of the Ethos Institute of Business and Social Responsibility. The Institute is a not‐for‐profit, non‐governmental organization, that has played a leading role in the Brazilian CSR effort. In Brazil, CSR initiatives have a long tradition of philanthropy, a consequence of the country's great social inequalities. The increased attention to corporate social responsibility has paralleled growing concern about sustainable development and the intensifying activities of pressure groups (consumers, customers, investors, NGOs, labour unions, the media, among others) that have been increasing since the 1990s as natural resources are progressively becoming exhausted, social tensions rising and environmental conditions deteriorating worldwide. This article identifies problems and obstacles to the growth of corporate social responsibility in Brazil, as well as advances and alternatives for CSR and towards creating conditions for the country to be internationally competitive and sustainable in the financial, social and environmental areas.