Applied tracer tests in fractured rock: Can we predict natural gradient solute transport more accurately than fracture and matrix parameters?

Applied tracer tests provide a means to estimate aquifer parameters in fractured rock. The traditional approach to analysing these tests has been using a single fracture model to find the parameter values that generate the best fit to the measured breakthrough curve. In many cases, the ultimate aim is to predict solute transport under the natural gradient. Usually, no confidence limits are placed on parameter values and the impact of parameter errors on predictions of solute transport is not discussed. The assumption inherent in this approach is that the parameters determined under forced conditions will enable prediction of solute transport under the natural gradient. This paper considers the parameter and prediction uncertainty that might arise from analysis of breakthrough curves obtained from forced gradient applied tracer tests. By adding noise to an exact solution for transport in a single fracture in a porous matrix we create multiple realisations of an initial breakthrough curve. A least squares fitting routine is used to obtain a fit to each realisation, yielding a range of parameter values rather than a single set of absolute values. The suite of parameters is then used to make predictions of solute transport under lower hydraulic gradients and the uncertainty of estimated parameters and subsequent predictions of solute transport is compared. The results of this study show that predictions of breakthrough curve characteristics (first inflection point time, peak arrival time and peak concentration) for groundwater flow speeds with orders of magnitude smaller than that at which a test is conducted can sometimes be determined even more accurately than the fracture and matrix parameters.     

Heavy metals in Hediste diversicolor (polychaeta: nereididae) and salt marsh sediments from the lagoon of Venice (Italy)

The nereid polychaete Hediste diversicolor was frequently used as biomonitor of heavy metals contamination in estuaries. In the present work, the bioaccumulation of five heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Pb) in tissues of H. diversicolor collected from six salt marshes in the lagoon of Venice is studied by analysing the relationships between concentrations of the operationally-defined reactive fraction of trace metals in sediments and total concentrations in tissues. The characterisation of sediment samples shows a clear distinction between sites near and far from the Industrial Zone; no analogous pattern is observed for tissue concentrations suggesting that metal bioaccumulation is controlled by complex interactions between metal bioavailability and physiological factors. Considering relationships between metals, strong inverse correlations are observed in polychaetes and sediments for Cu and Cr concentrations suggesting a possible interaction between these two metals. The role played by organic matter (OM) in the availability of metal is highlighted considering inverse relationships found between bioaccumulation factors for Cu, Cr, Cd and OM.     

电弧防护服性能测试及影响因素研究

针对电力行业电弧引发的事故,电弧防护服相关标准开始制定并逐步完善。现有电弧防护性能的标准测试方法包括开弧测试和盒式测试,针对不同形式的电弧,测试方式仍在不断发展。电弧防护性能的最常用的衡量指标是电弧热性能值ATPV。对于不同工作场所电弧服的选择是基于对工作现场的危害评级。最后文章总结了电弧防护服性能影响因素的研究,包括电弧防护性、热湿舒适性和作业适应性。未来的电弧防护服的开发会朝向更安全、低成本、更舒适的方向进行。     

资源约束与经济增长研究

资源约束条件下的经济增长研究对中翻经济的可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义.本文从宏观经济的微观基础分析入手.结合当前中国社会和经济发展的实际,在传统效用函数的基础上,引入了社会地位和资源两个影响因素,通过模型的静态及动态分析,重点研究资源约束对经济系统均衡条件、动态转移的影响.分析结果表明:①当期资源的使用量取决于资源的边际效用、消费的边际效用和时间贴现率的大小.②消费资本比足够大或消费足够多且资本与消费的边际替代率足够小是经济系统存在鞍点均衡的必要条件.③资源消耗足够多时,消费资本比将显著下降.并从资源约束这一角度解释了中国经济增长的投资消费失衡问题.最后从实证角度,利用协整理论验证了资源消耗与消费资本比之间的反向关系.     

小样本感度试验方法

提出了一种用于炸药及火工品感度试验的小样本方法。此方法较之传统的Ｂｒｕｃｅｔｏｎ升降法（估计方差一般需要３０ 个以上的试件,而且估计出的方差往往偏小）,可以在少于３０ 个试件的小样本的条件下,对方差进行估计,而且估计精度高。建立了高置信度、高可靠度的Ｐ发火刺激量置信限公式,该公式可以综合利用当前试验数据和以往经验数据,从而仅需少量当前试验,便可达到Ｂｒｕｃｅｔｏｎ 升降法采用３０ 个以上试件方能达到的精度,大大节省了试验的费用及时间。大量的ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ 模拟试验及实例分析都进一步证明了上述结论。     

上海粘土流变性质及地面沉降问题初步研究（一）

报导了作者早先时候所做的有关上海地区粘土流变性质实验研究结果和地面沉降问题的初步分析,简要评述了当时已有的有关文献,介绍了试验方法,并指出了试验中有重要影响的问题,给出了一些详细的试验结果,发现瞬间塑性变形间性变形还大,不容忽视。     

What do significance tests really tell us about the environment?

Routine application of significance tests does not extract the maximum information from environmental data and can lead to misleading conclusions. Reasons leading to this are: a significant result can often be reached merely by collecting enough samples; a statistically significant result is not necessarily practically significant; and reports of the presence or absence of statistically significant differences for multiple tests are not comparable unless identical sample sizes are used. These problems are demonstrated by application to pH data for grazed and retired fields, and by discussion of significance tests used in recent US regulations for groundwater quality. The advantages of equivalence tests, where the tester must state the difference of practical difference, are discussed and applied to the field pH problem. We recommend that environmental managers and scientists pay more attention to statistical power and decide on what is a practical difference. Confidence intervals for the size of the differences, accompanied where necessary by equivalence tests, are the preferred means of addressing the question: “is there a difference of practical significance?”     

PRA浓度和显色温度对West—Gaeke法测定SO2的回归斜率和空白值的影响

试验研究表明，Ｗｅｓｔ－Ｇａｅｋｅ法制定大气ＳＯ２，空白试验值不仅随显色温度增高而增高，而且随ＰＲＡ浓度增高而增高。尤其，在２０±２℃时，ＰＲＡ浓度＞０．０１６％时，校准曲线斜率比方法规定值偏高；称取ＰＲＡ０．１００ｇ提纯后使用，在３０℃时，回归斜率比方法规定值偏低。本文提出了对方法的补充意见。     

基于GM(1,1)模型的铁路行车事故预测

铁路行车事故的发生具有偶然性 ,但可利用预测理论的方法加以预测。笔者简述了灰色理论中GM(1,1)预测模型的建模过程和精度检验的方法及步骤 ,在某铁路分局 1995～ 2 0 0 2年间的铁路行车事故统计的基础上 ,应用GM(1,1)预测模型预测了该铁路分局 2 0 0 4年的铁路行车事故发生趋势 ,经精度检验表明 ,模型的精度等级合格 ,其预测结果为铁路行车事故的防范和降低事故损失提供了指导和科学依据。     

STREAMBED HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY FOR RIVERS IN SOUTH‐CENTRAL NEBRASKA1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents hydraulic conductivities of streambeds measured in three rivers in south‐central Nebraska: the Platte, Republican, and Little Blue Rivers. Unlike traditional permeameter tests in streams that determine only the vertical hydraulic conductivity (K_v), the extended permeameter methods used in this study can measure K in both vertical and horizontal as well as oblique directions. As a result, the anisotropy of channel sediments can be determined from streambed tests of similar sediment volumes. Sandy streambeds with occasional silt/clay layers exist in the Republican and Platte Rivers. The average K_v values range from about 15 to 47 m/day for the sandy streambed and about 1.6 m/day for the silt/clay layers. Statistical analyses indicated that the K_v values of sand and gravel in the Platte and Republican Rivers essentially have the same mean; but the K_v values from the Little Blue River have a statistically different mean. K_v is about four times smaller than the horizontal hydraulic conductivity (K_h) for the top 40 cm of sandy streambed. Measured K_h values of the sandy streambed are in the same magnitude as the K_h of the alluvial aquifer determined using pumping tests. The smaller K_v value in the whole aquifer is the result of interbedded layers of silt and clay within the sand and gravel sediments.