基于APJE-SLIM的海运人因失误概率的确定

安全是海运行业永恒的主题,调查研究表明,人因失误是造成海事的主要原因。为了对海运人因失误进行研究,探讨引起人因失误的行为形成因子(PSF),确定在PSF影响下的人因失误概率。在调查海上避让行为的人因失误和这些失误的行为形成因子的基础上,采用APJE和SLIM相结合的方法对航海人员避让行为中的可靠性进行分析。结果表明,航海人员疲劳与健康程度、知识、经验与培训水平、任务复杂程度、安全管理水平与组织有效性等PSF对人因失误概率有着不同程度的影响,相应提高PSF水平,可极大地减少人因失误概率。利用APJE确定端点绝对失误概率,解决了SLIM方法中难以获得参考点概率的问题,获得了在不同种类不同水平PSF影响下的海运人因失误概率。     

Alternative mating tactics in the Italian treefrog, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hyla intermedia</Emphasis>

As in many lekking anurans, Italian treefrog males use two mating tactics: they can attract females by calling vigorously or be satellites, that is, they can remain silent in proximity of a calling male and try to intercept females attracted by their neighbour. We investigated the factors that affected the expression of this mating tactic. Consistent with the conditional mating tactic hypothesis, satellites were smaller than average and smaller than their parasitised calling males. They spent a larger-than-average number of nights at the breeding site, where most of them were also observed calling. Moreover, satellites showed lower call rates and lower mating success than those of males they parasitise but not lower than those of males they did not parasitise. Overall, these results, together with those derived from the analyses of the seasonal and spatial distribution of males, provide evidence for a non-random association between satellites and calling males and are consistent with the hypothesis that satellites have spectral and temporal acoustic preferences that parallel those of females. By adopting the less-successful satellite mating tactic, competitively inferior males can nevertheless maximise their potential reproductive fitness by sexually parasitising the most attractive chorusing males.     

The rarity of twins: a result of an evolutionary battle between mothers and daughters—or do they agree?

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that parent–offspring conflict over parental investment might have led to the rarity of dizygotic twins in humans. We explored the theoretical prediction that twins maximize their inclusive fitness by the death of a co-twin, while mothers of twins maximize fitness by raising both twins to independence. We used life history data (1700–1900) from two parishes in Central Norway to compare differences in inclusive fitness (measured as number of children reared to the age of 16 years, using Hamilton's rule) between twins and mothers of twins. Our results show that twins maximize their inclusive fitness by the death of a co-twin, while mothers of twins raise more children by rearing both twins to adulthood. However, because twins growing up as singletons may produce higher or at least equal number of offspring than the sum of the two twins growing up together, mothers might gain more grandchildren by allowing twins to grow up as singletons. To conclude, both selfish twins and their mothers might benefit by the death of a co-twin, indicating that there is no parent–offspring conflict responsible for the rareness of twins in these human populations. Finally, we discuss the results in the light of “The Insurance Egg Hypothesis” and “The Natural Selection Hypothesis”.     

Multiple song repertoire characteristics in the willow warbler (Phylloscopus trochilus): correlations with female choice and offspring viability

Male willow warblers have song repertoires which vary in complexity along several dimensions. We examined whether female choice, as measured by date of pairing, was based on these song characteristics in 4 different years. Pairing date was negatively correlated with song repertoire size in 1 year, and with song versatility in another year, but there was no consistent effect of any song characteristic on pairing throughout the years or in the pooled sample. The variable that best explained how soon a male pairs is male arrival date (only males that had settled territories before the first female arrived were considered in the analysis). This correlation is consistently significant in all years. This is most parsimoniously interpreted as females choosing some habitat characteristic in the same way that males do. A small percentage of males (8.3%) attracted and paired with a second female. The likelihood of becoming polygynous was not explained by any measured song characteristic, but it was related to arrival date: early males were more likely to pair with two females. Males with large repertoires fledged more young in their primary nests, and there was a trend for the offspring of these males to have a greater probability of being recruited into the population. In conclusion, the results show that in most years there is no sexual selection by female preference on song characteristics, although the data on reproductive success is consistent with the idea of repertoire size being an indicator of male quality. Received: 4 June 1999 / Received in revised form: 1 December 1999 / Accepted: 31 December 1999     

Reproductive success of monogamous and polygynous pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca)

One of the most interesting aspects of the mating system of pied flycatchers is the regular occurrence of polygyny. Here we present data on the reproductive success of polygynously paired pied flycatcher males compared to monogamous males based on paternity analyses through DNA fingerprinting. Males paired with two females suffered a higher loss in reproductive output per female compared to monogamous males due to (1) a greater proportion of unhatched eggs in their broods, (2) greater nestling mortality and (3) a greater probability of being cuckolded. Nevertheless, the number of fledglings was significantly greater for polygynous males. Based on the number of nestlings that returned for subsequent breeding seasons, however, the reproductive success of monogamous and polygynous males did not differ significantly. These data raise the question as to why males attempt polygyny. Received: 16 August 1999 / Received in revised form: 15 March 2000 / Accepted: 18 March 2000     

Reproductive success increases with degree of kinship in cooperative coalitions of female red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus)

Evaluation of evolutionary mechanisms proposed to promote cooperative behavior depends on the relative influence of the behavior on the reproductive success of individuals, the reproductive success of the group in which they interact behaviorally, and the degree of gene correlation among cooperators. The genetic relationship within cooperative coalitions of female red howler monkeys was examined for three populations with different densities and growth rates. Patterns of gene correlation change within coalitions is documented using data from the mitochondrial and nuclear genomes, and long-term census monitoring. Differences in fecundity and infant survivorship within and between groups of unrelated (rˉ=0) and related (rˉ≥ 0.25) females are compared. Females that emigrate from their natal groups form coalitions with other migrant females. These coalitions attempt to establish a territory and, once successful in producing offspring, exclude other females from feeding resources. Females in these coalitions had different mtDNA haplotypes and a genetically estimated mean r of 0, supporting demographic data on emigration patterns indicating that these females rarely have the opportunity to form coalitions with kin. Patterns of recruitment and rate of matriline development within social groups supported behavioral data indicating that females actively attempt to promote their own matriline as breeders over that of other females, and that some matrilines are more successful at this than others. Mean r among females was significantly higher in coalitions established as social groups for several generations (rˉ=0.44). In these groups, females all shared the same mtDNA haplotype, and mtDNA haplotype divergence was significantly higher between than within groups. Females in coalitions with kin had significantly higher reproductive success than females in unrelated coalitions in all populations. This difference was not a function of coalition size, number of males, socionomic sex ratio, or primiparity, although anecdotal evidence suggests that allomothering may compensate for inept new mothers in related coalitions more often than in unrelated ones. Differences in territory quality could not be ruled out as a potential causal factor in the saturated populations, but were unlikely in the low-density, growing population. There were substantial differences among long-established coalitions in overall reproductive output in all three populations, and this was significantly correlated with the number of breeding females. Increase in coalition size was a function of both group age and the behavioral tolerance among females. Regardless of the underlying reasons for the patterns observed, reproductive success clearly increases with degree of gene correlation among females within cooperative coalitions, and coalitions that recruit more daughters produce more offspring. The nature of the cooperative relationship among group females directly influences both of these outcomes. This is associated with substantial genetic differentiation among social groups within populations, creating conditions in which genetic tendencies towards cooperative behavior can become tightly associated with group reproductive success. Received: 15 September 1999 / Revised: 27 April 2000 / Accepted: 27 May 2000     

Mating patterns and reproductive success in the bushy-tailed woodrat (Neotoma cinerea), as revealed by DNA fingerprinting

The mating patterns and reproductive success of the bushy-tailed woodrat (Neotoma cinerea) were investigated over a 3-year period (1992–1994) using DNA fingerprinting. Paternity was determined by genetic analysis of 58 juveniles of known maternity from 35 litters. Analysis of DNA fingerprints revealed that all offspring within a litter were fathered by a single male; the statistical probability of detecting multiple males mating with a female was high, indicating that multiple paternity would have been detected had it occurred. However, individual males did not father more than one litter from a given female either within or between years. At least 75% of females and 57% of males successfully produced offspring each year. The finding that all littermates are first-order relatives may contribute to the high level of female cooperation in this species. Received: 28 May 1997 / Accepted after revision: 22 March 1998     

Assessing Landowner Activities Related to Birds Across Rural-to-Urban Landscapes

Fluctuations of bird abundances in the Midwest region of the United States have been attributed to such factors as landscape change, habitat fragmentation, depredation, and supplemental feeding. However, no attempt has been made to estimate the collective role of landowner activities that may influence birds across a landscape. To investigate how landowners might influence birds when the majority (> 90%) of land is privately owned, we surveyed all 1694 private domestic landowners living on three breeding bird survey routes (120 km) that represent a continuum of rural-to-urban landscapes in Southeastern Michigan from October through December 2000. Our survey was designed to investigate (1) the proportion of landowners involved in bird feeding, providing bird houses, planting or maintaining vegetation for birds, gardening, landscaping, applying fertilizer, and applying pesticides or herbicides; (2) whether differences existed between urban, suburban, and rural landowner activities; and (3) whether landowners that carried out a given activity were sociodemographically different from those who did not. Of the 968 respondents (58.5% response rate), 912 (94%) carried out at least one of the activities on their land and the average landowner carried out 3.7 activities. A total of 65.6% fed birds, 45.7% provided bird houses, 54.6% planted or maintained vegetation for birds, 72.7% gardened, 72.3% landscaped, 49.3% applied fertilizer, and 25.2% applied pesticides or herbicides. Significant differences existed between the landscapes, with rural landowners having more bird houses and applying pesticides or herbicides in greater frequency. Similarly, urban landowners had a greater density of bird feeders and houses, but planted or maintained vegetation in the lowest frequency. Participation in activities varied by demographic factors, such as age, gender, and occupation. Scaling each activity to all landowners, including nonrespondents, across all landscapes indicates that between 14% and 82% of landowners may be engaged in a particular activity, with application of pesticides or herbicides having the least potential involvement (13.9%–55.4%) and gardening having the greatest potential involvement (40.1%–81.6%). Taken collectively, our results indicate that landowners are both intentionally and unintentionally engaged in a wide range of activities that are likely to influence bird populations.     

中国煤矿火灾的防治

分析了中国煤矿历年火灾与安全技术工程的关系,火灾类别、发火部位、与频率的统计;介绍了煤矿内外因火灾防治方法的沿革与发展,包括注浆、阻化剂、均压防灭火,注氮情化防火,高泡、燃油惰气灭火等的实例与成效。     

Community richness and stability in agricultural landscapes: The importance of surrounding habitats

In this paper, the role played by habitat diversity in the landscape on species richness and on the stability of farmland bird communities was investigated. Species richness was estimated on 374 samples monitored in farmland by the French breeding bird survey during the 2001–2005 period. A capture–recapture approach was used to estimate species richness accounting for the variation in detection probability among species of the 100 most common species detected in farmland. Landscape structure and composition were measured both in farmland and in adjacent habitats. The independent effect of each variable on community richness and stability was further assessed using hierarchical variance partitioning and taking spatial autocorrelation into account. A strong matrix effect was detected: non-cropped land deeply influenced richness and stability of bird assemblages.