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171.
Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Sandra Brown Myrna Hall Ken Andrasko Fernando Ruiz Walter Marzoli Gabriela Guerrero Omar Masera Aaron Dushku Ben DeJong Joseph Cornell 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(6):1001-1026
Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C)
emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key
elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the
projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change
being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging
from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more
complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic
factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest
Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model.
The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic
conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State,
Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico.
A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines.
In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest
loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations
of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance
were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable)
in explaining empirical land-use patterns.
We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing
credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond
10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change
and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed
project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the
second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using
a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year
baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock
estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final
step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed.
This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new
roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation
could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated
into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection. 相似文献
172.
浙江墩头盆地横山组孢粉化石的发现及其地层意义 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
浙江墩头盆地红色岩层中上部首获丰富的以Cassopllis为主(58.39—62.54%)伴有Exesipollenites(15.21—15.84%),Hsuisporites(0.56—0.62%),Cicatricosisporites(0—0.31%)等孢粉化石。该孢粉组合特征既与国内外晚侏罗世孢粉组合面貌差别较大,又与早白垩世中晚期孢粉组合面貌存在明显差异,显示了早白垩世早期孢粉组合的色彩。笔者认为这套红色岩层应归早白垩世早期横山组为宜。 相似文献
173.
A model for predicting the distribution of dibenzofuran and polychlorinated dibenzofuran (PCDF) congeners from a distribution of phenols was developed. The model is based on a simplified chemical mechanism. Relative rate constants and reaction order with respect to phenol precursors were derived from experimental results using single phenols and equal molar mixtures of up to four phenols. For validation, experiments were performed at three temperatures using a distribution of phenol and 19 chlorinated phenols as measured in municipal waste incinerator exhaust gas. Comparison of experimental measurements and model predictions for PCDF isomer distributions and homologue pattern shows agreement within measurement uncertainty. The R-squared correlation coefficient exceeds 0.9 for all PCDF isomer distributions and the distribution of PCDF homologues. These results demonstrate that the distribution of dibenzofuran and the 135 PCDF congeners from gas-phase condensation of phenol and chlorinated phenols can be predicted from measurement of the distribution of phenol and the 19 chlorinated phenol congeners. 相似文献
174.
石灰湿法脱硫过程中pH条件对结垢的影响研究 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
针对石灰湿法脱硫中存在的结垢问题,在鼓泡床中模拟了石灰湿法脱硫过程,通过分析液相的组成,结合反应机理探讨了pH对结垢的影响。结果表明,当pH控制在6.0~4.0时,既能避免结垢,又能获得较高的脱硫率。提出了实际中预测结垢倾向的方法。 相似文献
175.
Stable hydrogen isotopes of two chlorinated solvents, trichloroethylene (TCE) and 1,1,1-trichloroethane (TCA), provided by five different manufacturers, were determined and compared to their carbon and chlorine isotopic signatures. The isotope ratio for delta2H of different TCEs ranged between +466.9 per thousand and +681.9 per thousand, for delta13C between -31.57 per thousand and -27.37 per thousand, and for delta37Cl between -3.19 per thousand and +3.90 per thousand. In the case of the TCAs, the isotope ratio for delta2H ranged between -23.1 per thousand and +15.1 per thousand, for delta13C between -27.39 per thousand and -25.84 per thousand, and for delta37Cl between -3.54 per thousand and +1.39 per thousand. As well, a column experiment was carried out to dechlorinate tetrachloroethylene (PCE) to TCE using iron. The dechlorination products have completely different hydrogen isotope ratios than the manufactured TCEs. Compared to the positive values of delta2H in manufactured TCEs (between +466.9 per thousand and +681.9 per thousand), the dechlorinated products had a very depleted delta2H (less than -300 per thousand). This finding has strong implications for distinguishing dechlorination products (PCE to TCE) from manufactured TCE. In addition, the results of this study show the potential of combining 2H/1H analyses with 13C/12C and 37Cl/35Cl for isotopic fingerprinting applications in organic contaminant hydrogeology. 相似文献
176.
合肥市典型交通干道大气苯系物的特征分析 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
为研究合肥市交通干道大气苯系物污染状况,采用自主研制的差分吸收光谱(DOAS)系统,于2016年3月期间对合肥市交通主干道大气苯系物(苯、甲苯、间二甲苯和邻二甲苯)以及常规污染物NO_2、SO_2等进行了连续观测.观测结果显示,观测期间苯、甲苯、间二甲苯和邻二甲苯的平均浓度分别为:21.7、63.6、33.9和98.7μg·m~(-3).与国内外其它城市比较显示,合肥市交通干道大气苯和甲苯的污染处于中等水平,二甲苯的污染较为严重.结合观测期的间风速风向、T/B特征比值以及与CO等污染物的相关性,对上述苯系物来源进行了分析,结果显示观测期间T/B值为0.8~4.5,苯、甲苯与CO的相关性系数R分别为0.55和0.34.表明机动车尾气排放是观测区域苯和甲苯的主要排放源之一,同时也受到周边工业园区排放的影响,二甲苯的主要排放源为观测地点北偏东方向的涂料行业工业园区.苯和甲苯的夜间高浓度峰值分析结果表明,夜间的高浓度苯和甲苯可能主要来源于观测地点周边工业园区的排放.观测区域苯系物的臭氧生成潜势(OFP)表现为邻二甲苯间二甲苯甲苯苯,其中二甲苯的OFP占总OFP的85%,表明周边工业园区的排放对该地区臭氧生成的贡献较大. 相似文献
177.
钢铁行业是我国二噁英的第一大排放源,但对不同钢铁生产过程二英的生成排放认识有所欠缺.本文系统探究了钢铁行业不同物料的二噁英生成能力和同系物分布特征.结果表明,烧结飞灰的二英生成能力最强,而烧结生料生成二噁英能力最弱.3种污泥(连铸、热轧、冷轧)和烧结生料的二英生成途径相似,4种飞灰(电炉、转炉、高炉一次、高炉二次)之间也有相似的二英生成途径,而烧结飞灰则与其他物料均不同.所有物料中,有毒2,3,7,8-PCDD同系物之间存在极强的相关性,且氯酚合成二噁英路径也被发现存在于钢铁生产过程中. 相似文献
178.
为了探讨生物质锅炉羰基化合物的排放特征,采用气袋采样-PFPH衍生-GC/MS分析的方法测量了6台生物质锅炉排放烟气中的21种羰基化合物.结果表明,这些生物质锅炉的烟气中羰基化合物排放特征存在明显差异,总体而言,己醛和丙醛浓度在测定的21种目标化合物中比重最高,分别占总量的29%~47%和19%~31%,其次为甲醛和丙酮,乙醛和壬醛.通过羰基化合物排放量与消耗的燃料质量比值估算了排放因子,6台锅炉羰基化合物排放因子介于3.06~18.29mg/kg之间,平均为9.45±6.05mg/kg.采用最大增量反应活性法(MIR)评价了羰基化合物的化学反应活性及臭氧生成潜势(OFP),平均总的臭氧生成潜势(以O3计)为5.97gO3/gVOCs;己醛、丙醛、甲醛对OFP的贡献尤为明显,丙酮虽然占有较高的质量浓度,但对OFP的贡献较低. 相似文献
179.
180.