国有大型企业灾害和事故损失分析方法研究——以某大型企业集团统计数据为例

我国的企业灾害和事故每年均造成了较为严重的人员伤亡和经济损失．因此控制企业、特别是大型企业的灾害和事故是十分重要的。对灾害和事故损失的定量分析是评估企业风险程度和确定其风险管理方式的基础。在定量分析的方法中，统计学方法仅适用于单坝灾害损失分析，而模糊物元方法则适用于多项灾害损大的综合分析．在模糊物元方法的分析角度方面，政府更多地是从社会角度评估企业的损失，而缺少补偿考虑的损失评估往往会造成评估值的偏差。企业作为独立经营的实体．更多地是从可持续经营角度评估损失，以补偿为核心的损失定量评估对企业较为适宜，以此为基础得出的损失数据和损大模型更有助于企州；确定适当的风险管理措施。     

灾损度指数法在灾害经济损失评估中的应用——以福建台风灾害经济损失趋势分析为例

采用灾损度DLD和环境不稳定度EI两个要素,构建了灾害经济损失指数DELI(灾损度指数)指标对灾害经济损失进行评估。并应用它对福建省台风灾害经济损失趋势变化进行分析。研究表明:利用灾损度指数对灾害经济损失评估方法可取,它不受灾害发生的时间和地点限制,可比性强,资料信息源多,计算方便,适用范围广;福建省台风灾害灾损度指数呈波动上升,反映福建台风灾情加重与灾害本身损失加大和福建省环境不稳定度加大有关,与实际情况相符。     

灾害造成人员伤亡价值损失的评估

根据灾害造成的人员伤亡的特点和灾害损失评估的目的 ,提出了评估灾害造成人员伤亡价值损失的基本原则 ,即系统化评估原则、从整个国家和社会的角度出发进行评估的原则、基于灾害后果的评估原则、“有无对比”的原则、货币计量与非货币计量相结合以货币计量为主的原则、不考虑沉没成本的原则和基于未来获利能力的原则。在给出灾害造成的人员伤亡的数量及其分布状况的假设后 ,应用人力资源价值理论 ,提出了评估灾害造成的人员伤亡价值损失的方法和模型。为采用统一价值尺度评估灾害损失提供了基础 ,也使得灾害损失评估理论与方法体系更趋于完善。     

冬小麦灌溉减损经济效益的初步探讨

灌溉是获取作物高产的主要措施之一,灌溉减损经济效益与农民收入和生产经济效益密切相关.提出了从灌溉次数和灌溉量参数入手,根据灌溉投入和灌溉减损量来分析灌溉减损效益、减灾效益和生产经济效益;以华北冬麦区单点试验和调查结果为例,讨论了该方法在冬小麦减灾评估应用中的普适性和可行性.     

铁路灾害线路通过能力损失评估模型

针对目前铁路抗灾减灾的实际需要 ,阐述了铁路灾害间接经济损失评估的重要性 ,论证了铁路灾害线路通过能力损失是铁路灾害间接经济损失的主要部分 ,并提出了铁路灾害线路通过能力损失的评估模型     

生命线系统的震害耦联

在震害分析时,弧立地评价一个生命线系统的功能,不考虑与其它生命线系统间的耦联关系,可能会低估地震造成的损失。将地理信息系统（ＧＩＳ）与现有的震害预测方法结合起来,有利于推动新方法的研究。本文在ＧＩＳ环境下定义了网络失效率,提出了一种考虑不同生命线系统之间耦联关系的震害分析方法,给出了一个算例,并建议了相应的生产能力相关的震后应急抢修决策方案。     

Innate antipredator responses of Arctic charr (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Salvelinus alpinus</Emphasis>) depend on predator species and their diet

The ability to discriminate between more dangerous and less dangerous predators can have serious fitness advantages for fish juveniles. This is especially true for hatchery-reared fish young used for stocking, because their post-release mortality is often much higher than that of wild-born conspecifics. We tested whether two coexisting fish predators and their different diets induce innate behavioral responses in predator-naive Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) young originating from an endangered hatchery-bred population used for re-introductions. We predicted the antipredator responses of charr to be stronger towards chemical cues of brown trout (Salmo trutta) and pikeperch (Stizostedion lucioperca) than towards odorless control water. More pronounced antipredator behavior was predicted in treatments with predators fed on charr than when their diet consisted of another sympatric salmonid, European grayling (Thymallus thymallus), or when they were food-deprived. The Arctic charr young showed strong antipredator responses in all brown trout treatments, whereas odors of the less likely predator pikeperch were avoided with conspecific diet only. Freezing was the most sensitive antipredator behavior, as it was completely absent in control treatments. We found considerable individual variation in the amount and strength of antipredator responses. Although almost half of the charr failed to show antipredator behavior towards the piscivores, those with the innate ability showed highly sensitive recognition of predator odors. Our results indicate that the innate antipredator behavior of the juvenile fish is already finely tuned to respond specifically to chemical cues from different fish predators and even their diets.Communicated by J. Krause     

Insight of chemical environmental risk and its management from the vinyl chloride accident

The combustion of vinyl chloride (VC) after the train derailment accident in Ohio, USA in February, 2023 has caused widespread concern around the world. This paper tried to analyze several issues concerning the accident, including the appropriateness of the VC combustion in the emergency response in this accident, the meanings of so-called “controlled combustion”, the potential environmental risks caused by VC and combustion by-products, and follow-up work. In our view, this accident had surely caused environmental and health risks to some extent. Hence, a comprehensive environmental risk assessment is necessary, and then the site with risk should be comprehensively remediated, hazardous waste should be harmlessly treated as soon as possible. Finally, this accident suggests that further efforts should be taken to bridge the gap between chemical safety management and their environmental risk management.     

Metrics for quantifying how much different threats contribute to red lists of species and ecosystems

Red lists are a crucial tool for the management of threatened species and ecosystems. Among the information red lists provide, the threats affecting the listed species or ecosystem, such as pollution or hunting, are of special relevance. This information can be used to quantify the relative contribution of different threat factors to biodiversity loss by disaggregating the cumulative extinction risk across species into components that can be attributed to certain threats. We devised and compared 3 metrics that accomplish this and may be used as indicators. The first metric calculates the portion of the temporal change in red list index (RLI) values that is caused by each threat. The second metric attributes the deviation of an RLI value from its reference value to different threats. The third metric uses extinction probabilities that are inferred from red list categories to estimate the contribution of a threat to the expected loss of species or ecosystems within 50 years. We used data from Norwegian Red Lists to test and evaluate these metrics. The first metric captured only a minor portion of the biodiversity loss caused by threats because it ignores species whose red list category does not change. Management authorities will often be interested in the contribution of a given threat to the total deviation from the optimal state. This was measured by the remaining metrics. The second metric was best suited for comparisons across countries or taxonomic groups. The third metric conveyed the same information but uses numbers of species or ecosystem as its unit, which is likely more intuitive to lay people and may be preferred when communicating with stakeholders or the general public.     

Aromatization of waste polyolefin pyrolysate over H-ZSM-5 zeolite-supported gallium oxide catalysts

H-ZSM-5 zeolite-supported gallium oxides were studied as aromatization catalysts for polyolefin pyrolysate. The catalysts were prepared by a conventional physical mixing method with a gallium content of 1.0 and 4.5 wt% and were reduced in flowing hydrogen at 585°C. To test their activity, a polyolefin sample was pyrolyzed and passed over a heated catalyst layer; the product was analyzed by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. A continuous-flow fixed-bed reactor was used for aromatization of a model gas of polyolefin pyrolysate. For chlorine-free sources at 450°C, the catalyst with only 1.0 wt% gallium exhibited activity comparable to a gallium silicate catalyst. For chlorine-contaminated sources, the catalyst with 4.5 wt% gallium sustained catalytic activity for long periods. From the activity test results, it was found that zeolite-supported gallium catalysts prepared by the physical mixing method are suitable for converting polyolefin into aromatic hydrocarbons.