灾损度指数法在灾害经济损失评估中的应用——以福建台风灾害经济损失趋势分析为例

采用灾损度DLD和环境不稳定度EI两个要素,构建了灾害经济损失指数DELI(灾损度指数)指标对灾害经济损失进行评估。并应用它对福建省台风灾害经济损失趋势变化进行分析。研究表明:利用灾损度指数对灾害经济损失评估方法可取,它不受灾害发生的时间和地点限制,可比性强,资料信息源多,计算方便,适用范围广;福建省台风灾害灾损度指数呈波动上升,反映福建台风灾情加重与灾害本身损失加大和福建省环境不稳定度加大有关,与实际情况相符。     

区域农业水分供应脆弱性分析及定量损失评估

采用积分湿度指数方法,建立了区域农业水分供应脆弱性分析模型,并以山东省为案例进行了应用研究,结果表明:无论春、夏、秋季还是年平均的积分湿度指数值,均呈从东南到西北递减的趋势,说明自然降水对农业需水的满足程度沿该方向递减。对山东省而言,农业用水的满足程度在季节上也存在较大的差异,夏季降水在农业满足程度方面最高、秋季次之、春季最差。由于气候因子的年变异较大,积分湿度指数的年变异亦大;根据作物产量的形成为一动态过程,作物整个生育期内的每一个生长阶段都对其最终产量有一定的贡献,利用积分回归模式对作物全生育期中每一旬降水因子与产量的定量关系进行模拟分析,得到了主要农作物全生育期内每旬降水对最终产量的贡献系数。根据每旬降水对产量的贡献系数和作物受旱指标,建立了作物旱灾损失评估模型。     

福建省台风灾害时空变化分析

根据福建省灾害性气象年鉴和福建省气候影响评价资料,建立以县域为单元的福建省台风灾害数据库,运用Excel软件和M ap info技术,重建了1980~2005年福建台风灾害时空动态格局。研究表明:福建台风灾害年际变化总体呈波动上升趋势,年内80%左右集中在7~9月份,群发性强。空间上集中在沿海地区,灾情明显存在3个高值中心,即闽中的莆田、福清、长乐和平潭,闽南的漳浦、云霄和诏安,闽东北的霞浦和福鼎;致灾因子与灾情灾次比空间分布错位,体现承灾体脆弱性对台风灾害的影响。分阶段研究表明:台风灾害致灾因子变化不太明显,但灾情呈明显增强趋势,进一步反映环境不稳定性和承灾体脆弱性对台风灾害的影响机制。     

铁路灾害线路通过能力损失评估模型

针对目前铁路抗灾减灾的实际需要 ,阐述了铁路灾害间接经济损失评估的重要性 ,论证了铁路灾害线路通过能力损失是铁路灾害间接经济损失的主要部分 ,并提出了铁路灾害线路通过能力损失的评估模型     

Using persuasive messages to encourage voluntary hearing protection among coal miners

INTRODUCTION: This longitudinal field study was designed to encourage Appalachian coal miners in West Virginia and Pennsylvania to engage in hearing-protection behaviors. METHOD: Participants were mailed postcards that featured either a positive, negative, or neutral message on the outside of the postcard and a message encouraging hearing protection behaviors on the inside. The first posttest measurement of the effectiveness of the persuasive messages was conducted about a week after the postcards were mailed. The delayed posttest measurement was conducted six weeks later. RESULTS: Responses from 307 coal miners revealed that the positive or neutral messages generated significantly more self-reported hearing protection behaviors than the negative message. Identical results were obtained in a delayed posttest assessment of miners' self-reported hearing protection behaviors. The positive message was also more effective than either the neutral or negative message in preventing defensive mechanisms from emerging over time. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Positive and neutral messages were convincingly more successful than negative messages in facilitating self-reported hearing protection behaviors among coal miners. Similarly, the positive messages kept defensive processes at bay.     

Radionuclide and chemical concentrations in mineral waters at Saratoga Springs, New York

A project to characterize the radionuclide and chemical components in natural spring waters in the vicinity of Saratoga Springs, New York (USA) has been completed. As a result of the measured radionuclide and chemical content, eight springs were labeled as mineral waters, whereas three springs contained very low concentrations of these components. The mineral waters were highly enriched in alkaline and alkaline-earth elements, as well as chloride ions. Three isotopes of radium ((224)Ra, (226)Ra, (228)Ra) were detected in the mineral waters and reached concentrations of 1, 20, and 2 Bq/L, respectively. Overall, the (226)Ra isotope constituted about 80% of the total radioactivity measured in the water samples. Dissolved uranium concentrations in the mineral waters were very low (mean approximately 50 mBq/L).     

进近着陆运输飞行事故原因及预防对策研究

进近着陆是最容易发生重大运输飞行事故的阶段,笔者对1980—1996年发生的民航运输飞行进近着陆事故进行了统计分析。结果表明:事故的主要原因是人为因素和环境因素,事故结果主要为飞机失去控制和可控飞行撞地的结果,飞机撞地后起火往往造成机组人员和乘客大量伤亡;加强研究民航飞行安全中的人为因素控制,改善进近着陆的环境系统,重视机场应急计划的编制和应急救援的模拟演练等措施,对降低进近着陆阶段的飞行事故次数、改善航空运输安全和减少人员伤亡具有重要意义。     

安全生产事故人员伤残间接损失统计研究

针对安全生产事故的人员伤残损失统计,除直接经济损失外,还包括因死亡和伤残而导致的间接经济损失。为了计算我国安全生产事故导致的人员伤残损失,DALY(伤残调整寿命年)是目前国际疾病负担应用较多的统计指标,其将因伤残导致的健康寿命损失和死亡寿命损失综合计算。笔者首次应用DALY来计算2005年我国工矿商贸企业伤亡事故导致的伤残寿命损失,2005年因事故伤亡导致的健康寿命损失至少有3 651 862人年,折合成静态经济损失约878亿元。通过DALY计算健康寿命损失可以从一个全新的角度发现事故造成的间接损失,在调查处理安全生产事故时,除了直接损失外,还应该重视安全生产事故带来的间接损失。     

EMI有源滤波器与阻抗失配问题的分析

EMI滤波器的阻抗失配往往使得滤波器不仅起不到应有的作用，反而加剧了干扰分量的强度，为了弄清有源滤波器的结构类型与阻抗匹配之间的关系，本文从滤波器的主要性能参数插入损耗的基本定义入手。推导了不同结构有源滤波器的插入损耗与阻抗、滤波器增益关系的表达式。由此得出滤波器结构类型与阻抗失配情况的合理搭配．经过实验验证该结论对选用和设计EMI有源滤波器有直接的指导意义。     

Assessing differences in chemical disaster proneness: The community chemical hazard vulnerability inventory*

The burgeoning number of accidents with dangerous chemicals makes it incumbent upon community and regional planners to systematically deal with this problem. The first step invariably involves the assessment of the likelihood and type of incident which may impact a given area so that disasters may be averted or, at least, their effects mitigated. This paper presents one such assessment scheme, the Community Chemical Hazard Vulnerability Inventory (CCHVI). This instrument, aside from considering the type and volume of substances posing a threat to a designated area, considers the physical and human resources available, as well as the general state of readiness of the area (including such things as the interface of emergency-related organizations). The use of such vulnerability assessment instruments allows local emergency planners to identify particular dangers within their communities and permits regional planners to allocate funds for planning according to relative needs.