地震直接损失的多因素灰色关联分析

根据对多次历史地震直接损失资料的统计和定性分析,应用灰色系统理论,分析了计算各影响因素与地震直接损失的关联度,并对其进行了排序,研究结果客观地揭示了地震直接损失与各影响因素之间的相互关系。     

论建筑事故经济损失的分担

长期以来,我国建筑事故频繁发生,给国家、企业和个人造成了很大的经济损失,也给社会带来了不安定因素。笔者认为建筑事故经济损失的分担不仅是经济、安全问题,也是一个法律问题。在事故发生后不仅要查清人员的伤亡情况、事故经过、原因分析、责任人处理、人员教育、措施制定、事故经济损失,还要弄清法律问题,要依法问责或依法问罪,也是行政法律问题,依法行政处罚和处分,还是民事法律问题,依法承担民事赔偿。笔者认为企业最好采用保险和非保险转嫁方式把事故造成的经济损失转移出去,减轻自己的负担。只有在找不到其他更好的处置方法,或是为了经济上的节约而并不影响自身的财务稳定且有控制风险的能力,或不知道风险的存在,或虽知风险存在,但由于预测失误、忽略而导致损失,才自己承担。当事故发生后要通过法定程序来确定的建筑事故经济损失是由保险公司、合同另一方和企业分担。     

非预混碳氢火焰结构条件矩封闭模拟

采用Smooke 35步机理和条件矩封闭模型,数值方法应用二阶精度中心差分和刚性系统算法器VODE,对一甲烷对撞火焰结构进行了模拟,获得了非预混火焰中反应物、主产物和微量组分随混合分数的变化关系.结果表明,该方法具有较好预测效果,具有较大潜力.     

环渤海地区水旱灾害经济损失评价

环渤海地区,包括北京、天津两市,河北、辽宁、山东、山西、内蒙古五省.水旱灾害是该地区经济可持续发展的重要制约因素.本文采用了各省市的不稳定度Cr和灾害直接经济损失占应得GDP百分比的平均数Sp,构建了水旱灾经济损失指数Ss.研究表明,Cr高值区和Sp高值区在空间上明显错位,前者在辽宁、北京,后者在内蒙古、山西.根据Ss的区域分异和等级排序,建议应以辽宁、内蒙古、山西、山东、河北、北京、天津为序进行环渤海地区的水旱灾害防治,Ss值在3以上的辽宁、内蒙古地区为国家防止和治理环渤海水旱灾害的重点省区.     

人─—化学农药──作物病虫害循环灾害与控制途径

立足于目前农业生产上化学农药使用的现状，从“人—化学农药—作物病虫害”系统阐述了化学农药滥用所造成的危害和灾难，并剖析了发生灾难的主要原因．用事实说明了化学农药的利弊；指出使用者的素质是能否科学用药的关键．最后，提出了克服灾害的主要途径。     

Environmental effects of soil property changes with off-road vehicle use

The effects of off-road vehicles (ORVs) on the physical and chemical properties of 6 soil series were measured at Hollister Hills State Vehicular Recreation Area in central California. Accelerated soil erosion and the alteration of surface strength, bulk density, soil moisture, temperature, and soil nutrients were quantified to gain an insight into the difficulty of revegetating altered, or modified, areas.Erosion is severe at Hollister Hills, particularly in coarse grained soils on steep slopes. Erosion displaced 0.5 and 3.0 metric tons per square meter on 2 trails on gravelly sandy loam, and 0.3 metric tons/m² from a trail on sandy loam. The surface strength and bulk density increased while the soil moisture decreased in gravelly sandy loam, coarse sandy loam, sandy loam, and clay. Clay loam had an increased surface strength with variably increased bulk density and no decrease in soil moisture. Diurnal temperature fluctuations increased and organic material and soil nutrients decreased in soil modified by vehicles.These property changes increase the erosion potential of the soil, impede germination of seedlings, and slow natural revegetation. Management methods in ORV-use areas should include planning trails by prior application of the universal soil loss equation and soil surveys, trail closure before complete loss of the soil mantle, and revegetation of closed areas.     

WATER LOSS EQUATIONS AND COEFFICIENTS TO ESTIMATE RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL1

Infiltration models are based on physical characteristics of the soil and initial soil moisture. For a given soil it is based on the initial soil moisture distribution. A computer simulation model for flood runoff systems (FH-Model) was used to analyze 39 sets of rainfall-runoff data on four small watersheds ranging in size from 17 to 342 square kilometers located in the Yamaska River basin in Quebec. From these analyses, parameters and coefficients have been determined for a water loss (infiltration) equation. A method for determining the loss parameters, using a nonlinear least square curve fitting technique, is presented. Expressions were made to relate the loss parameters to antecedent precipitation. The equations were tested on 11 storm rainfall and runoff events on a watershed located in the same region and close agreements were found.     

水旱灾害损失评估系统

从我国水旱灾害防治实际需求出发,提出研建水旱灾害损失评估系统的必要性,对系统的结构、功能和作用作了详细的分析和描述．     

Models for Prediction and Assessment of Losses of Production Suspending and Cutting in Enterprises

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交通运输生命线灾害经济效益损失计算

生命线灾害的经济损失分为财产损失、救灾费用和效益损失;每种经济损失又分为企业经济损失和社会经济损失。文章提出了交通运输生命线灾害社会效益损失的计算方法,给出了灾害造成的运输费用和运输时间增加等１５个项目的计算内容和计算公式;计算中分别考虑了正常运输量、外部转移运输量、内部分流运输量、诱发运输量等损失变化所造成的社会经济效益损失。