近15a江苏省水源涵养功能时空变化与影响因素探析

定量评估生态系统服务功能是合理利用自然资源、促进人地关系与可持续发展的基础。以江苏省为研究区,基于InVEST模型产水模块,定量分析了江苏省2000~2015年产水功能和水源涵养功能的时空变化特征,并采用回归分析和主成分分析法评估了水源涵养功能与社会经济要素之间的关系。结果表明：（1）江苏省多年平均产水量为571×108 m³/a,水源涵养总量78.39×108 m³/a;（2）2000~2010年江苏省水源涵养功能呈下降趋势,2010~2015年有所回升,考虑到降水因素,江苏省实际水源涵养功能持续降低;（3）土地利用变化使15a来水源涵养功能下降15.2×108 m³,降低幅度为16.9%;（4）流域尺度上水源涵养功能与江苏社会经济因素相关关系不显著。研究结果可以为土地利用优化、流域水资源管理提供科学参考和支持。     

齐齐哈尔市PM2.5与PM10污染趋势及相关性分析

对2014—2016年齐齐哈尔市PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)质量浓度的时间变化特征进行简要分析,并探究PM_(2.5)/PM_(10)以及PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)的相关性。结果表明:2014—2016年齐齐哈尔的PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)的年均质量浓度分别为36.7、62.9μg/m~3,且呈逐渐下降趋势;冬季的PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)浓度最高,秋季次之,春季与夏季相对较低;2014—2016年PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)质量浓度月变化趋势基本相同,整体呈现2—6月逐渐下降,9—11月逐渐上升的规律;PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)质量浓度的日变化均呈双峰现象;对PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)进行线性拟合,相关系数为0.896 3。同时,残差分析也说明两者拟合情况良好,四季相关系数为r_(秋季)(0.982 2)r_(冬季)(0.964 4)r_(夏季)(0.943 9)r_(春季)(0.829 6);2014—2016年PM_(2.5)/PM_(10)平均值为55.27%,大气颗粒物PM_(2.5)的贡献率高达一半以上。     

The Fallacies of Concurrent Climate Policy Efforts

Climate policy has assumed an extreme degree of urgency in the international debate in recent years. This article begins by taking a critical look at the scientific underpinnings of the efforts to stabilize the climate. It points to several serious question marks on the purported relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, and expresses distrust about claims of impending catastrophes related to rising sea levels, hurricanes, and spread of infectious disease. It then reviews the concurrent climate policy efforts and concludes that they are incoherent, misguided and unduly costly, and that they have so far had no perceptible impact on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The exceedingly ambitious policy plans currently under preparation suffer from similar fallacies. For these reasons, but also because of the remaining scientific doubts and the exorbitant costs that have to be incurred, skepticism is expressed about the preparedness to implement the climate policy plans currently on the table.     

Climate Policy to Defeat the Green Paradox

Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO₂ emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of ‘backfiring’ and actually increasing CO₂ emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission targets. This leads us to a new way of formulating emission targets that include feedback effects, the global impact target. Once the full climate policy feedback mechanisms are accounted for, there are probably only three main routes in climate policy that stand a chance of mitigating global warming: (a) returning carbon to the ground, (b) technological leaps in zero-emission energy technology that make it profitable to leave much carbon in the ground even in Annex II countries and (c) international agreements that make it more profitable to leave carbon in the ground or in forests.     

矿化垃圾中的微生物区系与酶活性变化特征研究

选择某市郊城市生活垃圾填埋场为研究对象,对填埋时间分别达6、8、10年的矿化垃圾中的微生物区系与酶活性变化特征进行了比较。结果表明,表层(0～50 cm)和底层(100～150 cm)矿化垃圾中的微生物数量和酶活性变化幅度大于中层(50～100cm);填埋达6、8、10年后的各层矿化垃圾中的细菌数量明显低于对照,放线菌数量则明显高于对照,而真菌数量在表层和中层中高于对照或与对照相当,在底层则低于对照,各层中的脲酶、碱性磷酸酶、碱性磷酸酶活性则明显高于对照或与对照相当;总体来说,相同填埋深度的矿化垃圾中,填埋达6～8年的细菌、真菌、放线菌数量和脲酶、碱性磷酸酶、酸性磷酸酶活性的变化幅度要大于填埋8～10年的,且均在填埋8～10年趋于稳定。     

Effective communication about complex environmental issues: Perceived quality of information about carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) depends on stakeholder collaboration

This experimental research addresses the effectiveness of communication about complex environmental issues, depending on whether the same information is provided by multiple collaborating or by individual organizations (i.e., stakeholders). The information provided pertains to carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology, as an example of a complex environmental issue. In Studies 1 (N = 75) and 2 (N = 66) we found that participants perceived factual information from collaborating stakeholders to be of higher quality than when the same information was provided by individual stakeholders. As predicted, the expectation of diverse perspectives being represented in the collaborative information mediated this effect. In addition, in Study 3 (N = 79) the perceived dissimilarity of collaborating stakeholders was shown to be an important precondition for the collaboration effect observed in Studies 1 and 2. Finally, these studies indicate that occasional collaboration between different stakeholders does not necessarily harm the perceived credibility of each individual stakeholder.     

Spring leaf flush in aspen (Populus tremuloides) clones is altered by long-term growth at elevated carbon dioxide and elevated ozone concentration

Early spring leaf out is important to the success of deciduous trees competing for light and space in dense forest plantation canopies. In this study, we investigated spring leaf flush and how long-term growth at elevated carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) and elevated ozone concentration ([O₃]) altered leaf area index development in a closed Populus tremuloides (aspen) canopy. This work was done at the Aspen FACE experiment where aspen clones have been grown since 1997 in conditions simulating the [CO₂] and [O₃] predicted for ∼2050. The responses of two clones were compared during the first month of spring leaf out when CO₂ fumigation had begun, but O₃ fumigation had not. Trees in elevated [CO₂] plots showed a stimulation of leaf area index (36%), while trees in elevated [O₃] plots had lower leaf area index (−20%). While individual leaf area was not significantly affected by elevated [CO₂], the photosynthetic operating efficiency of aspen leaves was significantly improved (51%). There were no significant differences in the way that the two aspen clones responded to elevated [CO₂]; however, the two clones responded differently to long-term growth at elevated [O₃]. The O₃-sensitive clone, 42E, had reduced individual leaf area when grown at elevated [O₃] (−32%), while the tolerant clone, 216, had larger mature leaf area at elevated [O₃] (46%). These results indicate a clear difference between the two clones in their long-term response to elevated [O₃], which could affect competition between the clones, and result in altered genotypic composition in future atmospheric conditions.     

Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Biogeochemical Cycles, Benthic Fauna, and Management

Hypoxia has occurred intermittently over the Holocene in the Baltic Sea, but the recent expansion from less than 10 000 km² before 1950 to >60 000 km² since 2000 is mainly caused by enhanced nutrient inputs from land and atmosphere. With worsening hypoxia, the role of sediments changes from nitrogen removal to nitrogen release as ammonium. At present, denitrification in the water column and sediments is equally important. Phosphorus is currently buried in sediments mainly in organic form, with an additional contribution of reduced Fe-phosphate minerals in the deep anoxic basins. Upon the transition to oxic conditions, a significant proportion of the organic phosphorus will be remineralized, with the phosphorus then being bound to iron oxides. This iron-oxide bound phosphorus is readily released to the water column upon the onset of hypoxia again. Important ecosystems services carried out by the benthic fauna, including biogeochemical feedback-loops and biomass production, are also lost with hypoxia. The results provide quantitative knowledge of nutrient release and recycling processes under various environmental conditions in support of decision support tools underlying the Baltic Sea Action Plan.     

东湖典型区域间隙水中营养盐的时空分布

以富营养化程度严重的浅水湖泊东湖为研究对象,通过持续采样调查,分析并比较了3个典型采样点柱状沉积物间隙水中营养盐的垂直分布和季节变化特征,结果表明东湖沉积物间隙水中营养盐浓度最高值一般出现在-5 cm以上,-5～-10 cm之间有一个快速降低的过程,-10～-26 cm之间趋于稳定,但也有小幅的波动;冬季间隙水中营养盐浓度明显低于其他季节,夏秋两季略高。分析认为沉积物间隙水中营养盐浓度受附近污染源直接影响较大,与上覆水水质有一定相关性,但不显著。间隙水中营养盐的季节变化主要因为冬季污染排放减少加速了间隙水中营养盐向上覆水的扩散、减少了水中营养盐在沉积物表层的沉积,以及温度降低导致微生物活动减少进而降低了有机物的矿化分解量。并且认为常规疏浚深度就可以有效移除东湖表层污染严重的沉积物     

1994~2006年上海市土地利用时空变化特征及驱动力分析

快速发展的都市地区是区域土地利用变化研究热点。基于上海市1994、2000、2003和2006年4期航空遥感影像资料数据,运用人机交互目视解译方法建立上海土地利用空间数据库,并结合GIS空间分析、数理统计方法与土地利用动态度模型,对上海市1994~2006年土地利用时空变化特征进行了深入分析。结果表明：12 a间,上海市综合土地利用动态度为207%;在各种用地变化中,耕地面积变化最大,共减少了94 00772 hm2,减幅达233%;从耕地转移来看,转变为城镇建设用地（包括工业仓储用地、交通用地、城镇居民点用地和其他用地）面积共74 82586 hm2,占耕地面积总流出量的6712%;可见城镇建设用地急剧扩张而大量占用耕地,是上海市土地利用变化的主要特征;上海市土地利用变化的另一个重要特征是城市绿地的大幅增加,12 a间城市绿地面积共增加了9 29241 hm2,单一动态度为1876%。从上海土地利用变化的区域特征来看,各区的综合土地利用动态度差异明显,且表现出明显的中心城区-近郊-远郊递减趋势,其中浦东新区综合土地利用动态度最大,崇明县最小,这种差异与各区（县）的区位条件、经济发展状况以及政策等因素密切相关。通过对上海LUCC的驱动力定性定量分析表明,社会经济因素包括人口分布及变化、经济增长、人民生活水平的提高、政策以及国际大型活动的举办均对上海土地利用格局及其变化产生了重要的影响