NEW ENGLAND DROUGHT AND RELATIONS WITH LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS1

ABSTRACT: To provide a basis for regional hydroclimatic forecasting, New England (NE) precipitation and streamflow are compared with indices for the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Significant positive correlations are found between the NAO index and monthly streamflow at western inland locations, with the strongest seasonal correlations occurring in winter. Smoothed records for the winter NAO and winter streamflow are highly correlated at some sites, suggesting that interrelationships are most significant in the low frequency spectrum. However, correlations between the NAO and precipitation are not significant, so further examination of other factors is needed to explain the relationship between the NAO and streamflow. NAO related regional air temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), storm tracking, and snowfall variability are possible mechanisms for the observed teleconnection. Exceptionally cool regional air temperatures, and SSTs, and unique regional storm track patterns characterized NE's climate during the famous 1960s drought, suggesting that concurrent (persistent) negative NAO conditions may have contributed to the severity of that event. Monthly and winter averaged regional streamflow variability are also significantly correlated with the PNA index. This, along with results from previous studies, suggests that tropospheric wave character and associated North Pacific SST anomalies are also related to NE regional drought conditions.     

1949～1999年西北太平洋热带气旋活动时空分异研究

采用西北太平洋热带气旋年鉴数据 (1949～ 1999年 ) ,进行了统计分析 ,然后以每次热带气旋的中心位置资料 ,建立起 1°× 1°经纬度的热带气旋路径频数分布图 ,从季节、年际变化全面分析了西北太平洋热带气旋的时空变化规律。结果表明 :(1) 1949年到 1999年 ,西北太平洋热带气旋活动频繁 ,2 0世纪 6 0年代是热带旋多发期 ,70年代后期以后逐渐减少 ;而从年内的变化来看 ,7,8,9,10 ,这 4个月热带气旋发生的次数占绝大多数 ;(2 )热带气旋频数的分布大体以中国南海地区、菲律宾群岛以及马里亚纳群岛附近这 3个密集区为中心 ,向各个方向呈辐射状减少 ;(3)热带气旋频数空间分布存在着明显的季节变化 ,而年际变化不明显。     

Analysis of the eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna fishery based on multiple management objectives

Vector optimization techniques were used to generate arbitrary segments of a policy frontier for a dynamic yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) fishery model assuming fixed technology and considering four policy objectives: minimizing dolphin mortality, minimizing incidental catch (all species except dolphins), maximizing sustainable yield, and minimizing biological risk for the yellowfin tuna stock. Results show that along the policy frontier: (1) reducing incidental dolphin mortality increases the incidental catch of other species in a nonlinear way; (2) yield increases (subject to a biomass precautionary level) can only be obtained at the expense of higher levels of dolphin mortality and incidental catch; (3) biological risk increases as the level of tunas caught increases, but this increase depends on the type of fishery (longline fishing and three different modes of purse-seining: log-sets, dolphin-sets or school-sets) that dominates the fishing effort; (4) there is an indirect relationship between the dolphin mortality levels and those of biological risk; (5) there is a direct relationship between the incidental catch levels and biological risk. Catch obtained with dolphin-sets dominates the Pareto-optimal solutions with highest dolphin mortality levels but is associated with lower biological risk, whereas catch obtained with log-sets dominates in Pareto-optimal solutions with higher incidental catch and higher biological risk. In general, trade-offs or shadow prices among objectives are not linear, indicating that marginal costs vary along the policy frontier. Results of the trade-off analysis may provide useful information for decision-makers and other policy actors. Complete information about the preferences of the decision-makers regarding the objectives is necessary to recommend a specific management policy.     

China, the United States and technology cooperation on climate control

The U.S. and China are the world's largest and second largest CO₂ emitters, respectively, and to what extent the U.S. and China get involved in combating global climate change is extremely important both for lowering compliance costs of climate mitigation and adaptation and for moving international climate negotiations forward. While it is unavoidable that China will take on commitments at some specific point of time in the future, this paper has argued that the proposal for joint accession by the U.S. and China is not a way forward. For various reasons, such a proposal is in the U.S. interest, but is not in the interest of China. Given the U.S. political reality and institutional settings on the one hand and China's over-riding concern about economic growth and poverty reduction on the other, the two countries are unlikely to take on emissions caps under an international regime, at least for the time being. Therefore, we need to explore the area where cooperation between the two countries to address climate change seems best. The research, development and deployment of clean technology is the area that is in the best interests of the two countries. The U.S. has adopted a technology-oriented approach to climate issues, and has launched the four multilateral initiatives on technology cooperation and the Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate (APP). China has participated in all these U.S.-led initiatives, and is a partner to the APP. Strengthened technology cooperation between the two countries through these initiatives and the APP has led some tangible benefits. However, it should be pointed out that while technology is a critical ingredient in a climate policy package, efforts such as the APP can only be part of the solution. They alone cannot ensure that best available technologies are always deployed in the marketplace, and that new technologies will roll out at the pace and on the scale that we need. In order to have such technology-oriented approach to play a full role, we do need a coordinated policy framework agreed via the Kyoto Protocol or a follow-up regime or the parent United Nations Framework Convention.     

Where the exception confirms the rule: The cyclones of 1982-1983 in French Polynesia

The island groups of French Polynesia, which had not experienced any really devastating cyclones since the beginning of the century, were hard hit several times between December 1982 and April 1983. This paper reviews the cost of damage from these cyclones and shows how lowered public awareness of the hazard in a low-frequency area combined with the special economic conditions prevailing in the Territory to make the total cost much higher than it need have been. Ways and means of rehabilitation are analyzed. The development of the thermal imbalance in the Pacific, which appears to have triggered this series of natural disasters, only seemingly exceptional, is briefly discussed.     

Phylogeography and Limited Genetic Connectivity in the Endangered Boring Giant Clam across the Coral Triangle

Abstract: The Coral Triangle is the global center of marine biodiversity; however, its coral reefs are critically threatened. Because of the bipartite life history of many marine species with sedentary adults and dispersive pelagic larvae, designing effective marine protected areas requires an understanding of patterns of larval dispersal and connectivity among geographically discrete populations. We used mtDNA sequence data to examine patterns of genetic connectivity in the boring giant clam (Tridacna crocea) in an effort to guide conservation efforts within the Coral Triangle. We collected an approximately 485 base pair fragment of mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase 1 (CO1) from 414 individuals at 26 sites across Indonesia. Genetic structure was strong between regions (φ_ST=0.549, p < 0.00001) with 3 strongly supported clades: one restricted to western Sumatra, another distributed across central Indonesia, and a third limited to eastern Indonesia and Papua. Even within the single largest clade, small but significant genetic structure was documented (φ_ST=0.069, p < 0.00001), which indicates limited gene flow within and among phylogeographic regions. Significant patterns of isolation by distance indicated an average dispersal distance of only 25–50 km, which is far below dispersal predictions of 406–708 km derived from estimates of passive dispersal over 10 days via surface currents. The strong regional genetic structure we found indicates potent limits to genetic and demographic connectivity for this species throughout the Coral Triangle and provides a regional context for conservation planning. The recovery of 3 distinct evolutionarily significant units within a well‐studied taxonomic group suggests that biodiversity in this region may be significantly underestimated and that Tridacna taxa may be more endangered than currently recognized.     

Overview of Radioactive Waste Disposal at Sea

For hundreds of years, the seas have been used as a place to dispose of wastes from human activities. Although no high level radioactive waste has been disposed of into the sea, variable amounts of packaged low level radioactive wastes have been dumped at 47 sites in the northern part of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. in 1946 the first sea dumping operation took place at a site in the North-East Pacific Ocean. the last dumping operation was in 1982, at a site off the European continental shelf in the Atlantic Ocean. Between these two dates, an estimated 46 PBq (1.24 MCi) of radioactive waste coming from research, medical, military and industrial activities have been disposed of at sea. the present trend, through the Convention for the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and other Matter and other Regional Conventions, points towards the prohibition of the dumping of any radioactive waste into the marine environment.     

Riparian Zone Management in the Pacific Northwest: Who's Cutting What?

Oncorhynchus sp.), regional governments now restrict timber harvest in riparian forests. I summarize and assess the riparian zone management guidelines of the states of California, Oregon, and Washington (USA) and the province of British Columbia (Canada). Only Oregon and British Columbia protect fish-bearing streams with “no-harvest” zones, and only the wider (20–50 m) no-harvest zones for larger fish-bearing streams in British Columbia are likely to maintain near-natural linkages between riparian and stream ecosystems. All four jurisdictions protect most streams with “management zones” of variable width, in which timber harvest activities are restricted. All the management zone guidelines permit the harvest of the largest conifers from riparian forests and will, if applied over a series of timber harvest rotations (60–80 years), result in the continued removal of potential sources of large woody debris from the region's watersheds. All four jurisdictions require additional protection for streams and watersheds that are severely degraded or (in the United States) contain threatened or endangered species. The governments of the PNW have taken a “manage until degraded, then protect” approach to riparian forest management that is unlikely to maintain or restore the full suite of riparian-stream linkages necessary for lotic ecosystems to function naturally at the stream, watershed, basin, or regional scale.     

Cascading loss and loss risk multipliers amid a changing climate in the Pacific Islands

Human society has experienced, and will continue to experience, extensive loss and damage from worsening anthropogenic climate change. Despite our natural tendencies to categorise and organise, it can be unhelpful to delineate clean boundaries and linear understandings for complex and messy concepts such as loss and damage. Drawing on the perspectives of 42 local and regional Pacific Islander stakeholders, an underexplored resource for understanding loss and damage, we explore the complexity and interconnectedness of non-economic loss and damage (NELD). According to participants, Pacific Islander worldviews, knowledge systems and cosmologies often make it difficult to separate and evaluate NELD independently, challenging the nomenclature of NELD categories developed through international mechanisms. Instead, NELD understandings are often centred on the interdependencies between losses, including the cascading flow-on effects that can occur and the nature of some losses as risk multipliers (i.e. one loss creating the risk for further losses). Most notably, losses to biodiversity, ecosystem services and land are critically linked to, and have cascading effects on, livelihoods, knowledge, ways of life, wellbeing, and culture and heritage. We argue that loss and damage is not always absolute, and that there are NELD that are arguably reparable. Concerning, however, is that biodiversity loss, as a risk multiplier, was considered the least reparable by participants. We put forward that NELD understandings must consider interconnectivity, and that biodiversity and ecosystem conservation and restoration must be the focus for interventions to prevent irreparable and cascading losses from climate change in the Pacific Islands.     

Vertical distributions of (99)Tc and the (99)Tc/(137)Cs activity ratio in the coastal water off Aomori, Japan

Using a sector-field ICP-MS the vertical distributions of the ⁹⁹Tc concentration and ⁹⁹Tc/¹³⁷Cs activity ratio were measured in the coastal waters off Aomori Prefecture, Japan, where a spent-nuclear-fuel reprocessing plant has begun test operation. The ⁹⁹Tc concentrations in surface water ranged from 1.8 to 2.4 mBq/m³, no greater than the estimated background level. Relatively high ⁹⁹Tc/¹³⁷Cs activity ratios (10-12 × 10⁻⁴) would be caused by the inflow of the high-⁹⁹Tc/¹³⁷Cs water mass from the Japan Sea. There is no observable contamination from the reprocessing plant in the investigated area. The ⁹⁹Tc concentration and the ⁹⁹Tc/¹³⁷Cs activity ratio in water column showed gradual decreases with depth. Our results implied that ⁹⁹Tc behaves in a more conservative manner than ¹³⁷Cs in marine environments.