VARIATION IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SNOWMELT RUNOFF IN OREGON AND ENSO AND PDO1

ABSTRACT: The value of using climate indices such as ENSO or PDO in water resources predictions is dependent on understanding the local relationship between these indices and streamflow over time. This study identifies long term seasonal and spatial variations in the strength of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) correlations with timing and magnitude of discharge in snowmelt streams in Oregon. ENSO is best correlated with variability in annual discharge, and PDO is best correlated with spring snowmelt timing and magnitude and timing of annual floods. Streams in the Cascades and Wallowa mountains show the strongest correlations, while the southernmost stream is not correlated with ENSO or PDO. ENSO correlations are weaker from 1920 to 1950 and vary significantly depending on whether Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) or Niño 3.4 is used. PDO correlations are strong from 1920 to 1950 and weak or insignificant other years. Although there are not consistent increasing or decreasing trends in annual discharge or spring snowmelt timing, there are significant increases in fractional winter runoff that are independent of precipitation, PDO, or ENSO and may indicate monotonic winter warming.     

Surface‐Water Nutrient Conditions and Sources in the United States Pacific Northwest1

Wise, Daniel R. and Henry M. Johnson, 2011. Surface‐Water Nutrient Conditions and Sources in the United States Pacific Northwest. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1110‐1135. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00580.x Abstract: The SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model was used to perform an assessment of surface‐water nutrient conditions and to identify important nutrient sources in watersheds of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (U.S.) for the year 2002. Our models included variables representing nutrient sources as well as landscape characteristics that affect nutrient delivery to streams. Annual nutrient yields were higher in watersheds on the wetter, west side of the Cascade Range compared to watersheds on the drier, east side. High nutrient enrichment (relative to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s recommended nutrient criteria) was estimated in watersheds throughout the region. Forest land was generally the largest source of total nitrogen stream load and geologic material was generally the largest source of total phosphorus stream load generated within the 12,039 modeled watersheds. These results reflected the prevalence of these two natural sources and the low input from other nutrient sources across the region. However, the combined input from agriculture, point sources, and developed land, rather than natural nutrient sources, was responsible for most of the nutrient load discharged from many of the largest watersheds. Our results provided an understanding of the regional patterns in surface‐water nutrient conditions and should be useful to environmental managers in future water‐quality planning efforts.     

Plutonium as a chronomarker in Australian and New Zealand sediments: a comparison with Cs

The construction of high resolution chronologies of sediment profiles corresponding to the last 50-100 years usually entails the measurement of fallout radionuclides ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs. The anthropogenic radionuclide, ¹³⁷Cs, originating from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing can provide an important “first appearance” horizon of known age (1954-1955), providing much-needed validation for the sometimes uncertain interpretations associated with ²¹⁰Pb geochronology. However, while ¹³⁷Cs usually provides a strong signal in sediment in the northern hemisphere, total fallout of ¹³⁷Cs in the southern hemisphere was only 25% that of the north and the low activities of ¹³⁷Cs seen in Australian and New Zealand sediments can make its horizon of first appearance somewhat arguable. Low ¹³⁷Cs fallout also limited the size of the 1963-1964 fallout peak, a peak that is usually seen in northern hemisphere sediment profiles but is often difficult to discern south of the equator.This paper shows examples of the use of nuclear weapons fallout Pu as a chronomarker in sediment cores from Australia (3 sites) and New Zealand (1 site). The Pu profiles of five cores are examined and compared with the corresponding ¹³⁷Cs profiles and ²¹⁰Pb geochronologies. We find that Pu has significant advantages over ¹³⁷Cs, including greater measurement sensitivity using alpha spectrometry and mass spectrometric techniques compared to ¹³⁷Cs measurements by gamma spectrometry. Moreover, Pu provides additional chronomarkers associated with changes in the Pu isotopic composition of fallout during the 1950s and 1960s. In particular, the ²³⁸Pu/^239+240Pu activity ratio shows distinct shifts in the early 1950s and the mid to late 1960s, providing important known-age horizons in southern hemisphere sediments. For estuarine and near-shore sediments Pu sometimes has another significant advantage over ¹³⁷Cs due to its enrichment in bottom sediment relative to ¹³⁷Cs resulting from the more efficient scavenging of dissolved Pu in seawater by sediment particles.     

Long-Term Relationships Between Ocean Variability and Water Resources in Northeastern Utah1

Tingstad, Abbie H. and Glen M. MacDonald, 2010. Long-Term Relationships Between Ocean Variability and Water Resources in Northeastern Utah. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):987-1002. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00471.x Abstract: The Uinta Mountains in the northwestern Colorado River Basin are an important source of water for Utah and the western United States. This article examines 20th Century hydrology in the Uinta Mountains region in the context of the previous four to eight centuries as well as possible relationships with Pacific and Atlantic Ocean variability using new tree-ring based reconstructions for streamflow and snowpack. The 20th Century appears to have been unusually wet compared with previous centuries. Relationships between hydrology in the region and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are largely insignificant in instrumental datasets but may have been stronger, although inconsistent, over the longer time spans represented by the paleoclimate records. Impacts of individual modes of sea surface temperature variability may sometimes be enhanced by periods when climate forcing by ENSO, PDO, and/or AMO coincide. Such episodes are associated with deviations from mean hydrology as high as +14% and as low as −18%. The 20th Century could be a misleading benchmark to base water resource estimates upon and flexible water management strategies are necessary to take into account the large range of natural variability observed in the longer-term hydroclimatology as well as the challenges to predictability due to the apparently complex and inconsistent influence of ocean-driven variability.     

妈祖文化内涵及其在亚太合作发展中的重要功能

妈祖文化作为亚太地区人口众多的华裔文脉之源,对促进亚太民族间的文化交流与文化交融合作具有广泛影响力。虽然亚太各国的社会制度和经济发展存在一定的差异,但妈祖文化有望成为维系亚太地区的精神纽带,促进亚太合作发展。基于文化地理学的层次深入分析妈祖的精神文化内涵、制度文化内涵、物质文化内涵,提出了妈祖文化内涵的再认识。结合亚太合作发展现状,提出以推动亚太合作发展为最终目标,阐述妈祖文化是亚太合作发展的感情交融的纽带、转型促商的催化剂、和谐的基石和诚信的保障。     

Adaptive Capacity of Fishing Communities at Marine Protected Areas: A Case Study from the Colombian Pacific

Departing from a theoretical methodology, we estimate empirically an index of adaptive capacity (IAC) of a fishing community to the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs). We carried out household surveys, designed to obtain information for indicators and sub-indicators, and calculated the IAC. Moreover, we performed a sensitivity analysis to check for robustness of the results. Our findings show that, despite being located between two MPAs, the fishing community of Bazán in the Colombian Pacific is highly vulnerable and that the socioeconomic dimension of the IAC constitutes the most binding dimension for building adaptive capacity. Bazán is characterized by extreme poverty, high dependence on resources, and lack of basic public infrastructure. Notwithstanding, social capital and local awareness about ecological conditions may act as enhancers of adaptive capacity. The establishment of MPAs should consider the development of strategies to confer adaptive capacity to local communities highly dependent on resource extraction.     

钚同位素法示踪中国领海核爆散落物钚的主要来源与迁移途径

使用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪,对东海及冲绳海槽沉积物、南海及邻近海域以及西北太平洋表层水中240Pu/239Pu同位素比值进行了测定,以确定中国领海核爆散落核素钚的主要来源及迁移途径。结果显示:东海及冲绳海槽沉积物中240Pu/239Pu比值分布于0.24~0.31之间,南海及邻近海域以及西北太平洋表层水240Pu/239Pu比值也处于0.22~0.24之间,都明显高于全球大气理论沉降值0.18。根据240Pu/239Pu比值及其在沉积物芯中的分布特征分析,二十世纪50年代早期美国在北太平洋马绍尔群岛进行的核爆实验,被认为是中国领海及其邻近海域除全球大气沉降外的另一重要的钚的来源。模式计算显示,东海及冲绳沉积物中约55%、中国南海及其邻近海域表层水中约40%、西北太平洋表层水中约20%的钚,来自北太平洋核爆基地。北太平洋赤道环流及其在西北太平洋的分支洋流是钚自核爆地向中国领海迁移的主要通道。     

Supporting climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments in the Asia-Pacific region: an example of sustainability science

Sustainability is achieved only when there is full reconciliation between: (1) economic development; (2) meeting, on an equitable basis, growing and changing human needs and aspirations; and (3) conserving the limited natural resources and the capacity of the environment to absorb the mulitple stresses that are a consequence of human activities. The linkages between climate and sustainability are examined in the context of both the wider Asia-Pacific region and local level climate risks and adaptation responses. These findings are used to underpin and illustrate several implications for sustainability science. Climate change is seen as both an impediment to increasing sustainability and as an opportunity, though in most cases the former far outweighs the latter. Assessments of climate change vulnerability and risk are shown to be of critical importance because they inform decisions as to where resources for adaptation are best invested. They also show whether global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions need to be strengthened because of limits to adaptation. In practice, adaptation takes place at many levels, essentially ranging between tangible interventions at community and enterprise level and national and international efforts to strengthen the enabling environment for adaptation. It is informative to undertake regional assessments of adaptation, even though most adaptation interventions need to reflect local conditions, including local adaptive capacities. The foregoing findings, based in part on a series of regional and local case studies, lead to several recommendations for further research that will help reduce barriers to implementing responses that reduce climate related risks, including adverse consequences for sustainability. The recommendations relate to such themes as making optimum use of predictive capabilities, characterising the linkages between climate change and sustainability, implications of the required rates and magnitudes of adaptation, institutional responses that enhance adaptive capacity, use of new and traditional technologies, the multiple dimensions of social responsibility, and enhancing the enabling environment for adaptation at the community and enterprise level. If these recommendations are acted upon they will, in turn, help address much needed improvements in quantifying the costs and benefits of adaptation, prioritising adaptation options, assessing sustainable development tradeoffs, and monitoring the success of adaptation initiatives. Such improvements will have even greater utility if they are incorporated into user-friendly decision support tools for adaptation.     

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATERSHED PLANNING IN WASHINGTON STATE1

ABSTRACT: This paper draws on interviews with Washington State Watershed Planning Leads (Planning Leads) and interactions with local watershed planning units to identify factors that may influence the inclusion of climate change in watershed planning efforts in Washington State. These factors include the interest of individual planning unit members in climate change; Planning Lead familiarity with climate impacts; the influence of trust, leadership, and “genetic knowledge” on planning units; and perceptions of strategic gain. The research also identifies aspects of the planning process that may create opportunities for addressing climate impacts in future planning. These aspects include continuation of watershed planning units after plans are developed; commitment to updating watershed plans; recognition of climate impacts in planning documentation; dedicated incentive funding; and the availability of hydrologic modeling tools for assessing hydrologic impacts. Additional types of technical assistance that could support integration of climate impacts are also identified. It is hoped that the insight provided by this analysis will help individuals involved in stakeholder‐based watershed planning recognize the various dynamics potentially affecting the inclusion of climate change in watershed planning and in doing so, contribute to the development of planning approaches and tools that will support local efforts to adapt to climate impacts.     

江苏省春季连阴雨和太平洋海温的响应关系研究

对太平洋海温和江苏省春季连阴雨进行相关普查,通过非线性最优化因子处理方法对太平洋海温因子进行变换,确定高相关区。结果表明:江苏春季连阴雨的发生与太平洋海温的变化显著相关,从相关区域的大小看,下半年各海区温度变化与江苏次年春季连阴雨的相互关系更为密切,苏南和江淮地区的显著性要优于淮北;而从海区的位置上看,淮北连阴雨的相关海区在冬春季主要集中在高纬地区,夏季在低纬地区;其它地区的相关海区则从春季开始由高纬度向低纬度地区过渡。通过t检验分析了ENSO现象对当年和次年的江苏省春季连阴雨发生的次数的影响,发现EI Nino事件对当年和次年的江苏春季连阴雨发生次数均呈正效应,La Nina事件对当年江苏春季连阴雨无显著影响,与次年的春季连阴雨呈负效应。