高速铁路信号系统的安全管理评价研究

高速铁路信号系统要通过安全管理来保障其开发与运行中的安全相关活动符合系统安全计划的要求。为了评估安全管理活动的可信性,提出基于系统安全分析技术的安全管理评价方法。通过建立安全管理流程与系统安全功能相关联的概念模型,使用安全文化危险与可操作性研究(SCHAZOP)辨识出安全管理流程中的行为偏差,基于失效传导转换符号(FPTN)建立管理角色的安全文化失效模型,最终将管理行为失效模式转换成组件故障树作为安全管理评价证据。研究结果表明,安全管理行为偏差体现了信号系统开发与运营过程中的安全文化特征;辨识与分析安全文化失效,为信号系统安全管理活动的可信性提供了评价依据。     

镉在3种乔木中的积累及其亚细胞分布和化学形态研究

研究不同镉(Cd)浓度(0、25、50、100、200 mg·kg-1)处理下,栾树(Koelreuteria paniculata)、臭椿(Ailanthus altissima)、银杏(Ginkgo biloba)3种乔木叶、枝、根中Cd的含量与积累特征,并分析Cd对其叶片超微结构的影响,探讨Cd在3种乔木叶片与根...     

Trace Element Concentrations and Bioindicator Responses in Tree Swallows from Northwestern Minnesota

Extremely high concentrations of cadmium (3.5 μg/g dry wgt.) and elevated concentrations of chromium (>10 μg/g dry wgt.) and mercury (1.6 μg/g dry wgt.) were reported in waterbird tissues at Agassiz National Wildlife Refuge in northwestern Minnesota in 1994. Tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) were studied during 1998–2001 at three drainages into the Refuge, two pools on the Refuge, and at a nearby reference location to document whether high levels of contaminants were still present, and if so to quantify the source and severity of the contamination. Trace elements were measured in tree swallow eggs, livers, and diet. Reproductive success and bioindicator responses were monitored. In 2000, water was drawn down on Agassiz Pool, one of the main pools on the Refuge. This presented an opportunity to evaluate the response of trace element concentrations in the diet and tissues of tree swallows after reflooding. High concentrations of trace elements were not detected in swallow tissues, nor were there differences among locations. Less than 20% of swallow samples had detectable concentrations of cadmium or chromium. Mercury concentrations were low and averaged <0.25 μg/g dry wgt. in swallow tissues. Trace elements, including mercury, did not increase in tree swallows following the 2000 drawdown at Agassiz Pool. Hatching success and survival of nestlings to 12 days-of-age for tree swallows on the Refuge were similar to the national average and consistent with background trace element concentrations. Bioindicator measurements were within the normal ranges as well.     

聚丙烯车间12m3釜聚合岗危险分析及安全措施

聚合岗位是石油化工厂聚丙烯车间重要且非常危险的岗位,一旦发生意外事故,将会导致人员的重大伤亡和巨大的经济损失。笔者依据聚丙烯车间生产现状,详细地介绍了12m3 釜聚合岗位工艺流程,用“系统安全”的理论和方法对其主要物质、生产工艺、操作过程的危险性进行了辨识,且绘制了主要危险点分布图;通过危险源辨识可知,聚合釜具有的超温、超压特点是该岗位众多危险源中最为严重的潜在危险,应用“事故树法”对聚合釜超温、超压爆炸事故进行了危险分析,找出其爆炸潜在的危险因素有2 4种,该事故树的最小割集共有6 6个,表明聚合釜爆炸可能性是很大的。依据分析结果,针对聚合釜爆炸可能性最大的危险因素,提出了安全对策与措施,以避免或减少爆炸事故的发生     

灰关联分析在故障树诊断中的应用

介绍一种灰色诊断法。在故障诊断模式识别中,运用灰关联分析,依据故障树的底事件重要度,通过关联度计算及排序,对故障树分析中,各种故障模式发生的可能性大小作出了准确的判断,从而为处理事故的先后、缓急提供了依据。     

连续型空间故障树中因素重要度分布的定义与认知

为了解工作环境条件因素对系统故障概率的影响的特征,同时丰富连续型空间故障树(CSFT)的理论框架,提出因素重要度分布的概念。因素重要度分布从经典故障树的概率重要度发展而来,目的是研究系统所处环境因素变化导致系统可靠性变化的程度。给出元件和系统的因素重要度分布概念、公式及所需基础数据,并分析因素重要度分布的正负分布特点。使用该概念研究元件X1和系统T的因素t重要度分布和因素c重要度分布。结果表明:在不同环境中,对于因素t或c变化影响元件或系统的故障概率变化程度是不同的。因素重要度分布有效地表达了t和c对元件或系统的故障概率影响特征。     

秦皇岛市4种常见绿化植物滞尘效应研究

通过对秦皇岛市4种常见绿化植物的叶片滞尘量、单株滞尘能力及相关因素的研究,发现绿化植物单位叶面积的滞尘量最大可以相差2.5倍左右,树种叶片滞尘能力的大小排序为：国槐＞悬铃木＞金银木＞连翘,单株滞尘能力的大小排序为：悬铃木＞国槐＞金银木＞连翘;绿化植物的滞尘量与环境中粉尘含量成正比,树木滞尘能力还与叶片表面性状、叶面积指数及植物所处环境等因素有关。     

Millennial‐Length Records of Streamflow From Three Major Upper Colorado River Tributaries1

Gray, Stephen T., Jeffrey J. Lukas, and Connie A. Woodhouse, 2011. Millennial‐Length Records of Streamflow From Three Major Upper Colorado River Tributaries. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):702‐712. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00535.x Abstract: Drought, climate change, and shifting consumptive use are prompting a widespread reassessment of water availability in the Upper Colorado River basin. Here, we present millennial‐length records of water year (October‐September) streamflow for key Upper Colorado tributaries: the White, Yampa, and Little Snake Rivers. Based on tree rings, these records represent the first paleohydrological reconstructions from these subbasins to overlap with a series of Medieval droughts (∼ad 800 to 1300). The reconstructions show marked interannual variability imbedded in nonstationary behavior over decadal to multidecadal time scales. These reconstructions suggest that, even in a millennial context, gaged flows from a handful of years (e.g., 1977 and 2002) were extremely dry. However, droughts of much greater duration and magnitude than any in the instrumental record were regular features prior to 1900. Likewise these reconstructions point to the unusual wetness of the gage period, and the potential for recent observations to paint an overly optimistic picture of regional water supplies. The future of the Upper Colorado River will be determined by a combination of inherent hydroclimatic variability and a broad range of human‐induced changes. It is then essential that regional water managers, water users, and policy makers alike consider a broader range of hydroclimatic scenarios than is offered by the gage record alone.     

Application of Decision Analysis to Forest Road Deactivation in Unstable Terrain

Resource managers require objective methodologies to optimize decisions related to forest road deactivation and other aspects of road management, especially in steep terrain, where road-related slope failures inflict extensive environmental damage. Decision analysis represents a systematic framework that clearly identifies real options and critical decision points. This framework links current decisions with expected future outcomes and provides advantages such as a common currency to systematically explore the liability consequences of limited budget expenditures to road deactivation and other road-related activities. Furthermore, the decision framework prevents the analysis from becoming hopelessly entangled by the vast number of possibilities generated by the alternative occurrences, magnitudes, and consequences of landslide/debris flow events and provides the information required for the first step of an adaptive management process. Here, a structured analysis of potential environmental risks for a road deactivation project in coastal British Columbia, Canada is presented. The application of decision analysis generates a ranking of the expected benefits of proposed deactivation activities on various road sections. The ranking distinguishes between road sections that offer high expected benefit from those that offer moderate to low expected benefit. Seventeen of 171, 100–m road segments accounted for 18% of the cumulative cost and 98% of the cumulative expected net benefits from road deactivation. Furthermore, the cost of deactivating a section of road is related to the expected benefit from such deactivation, thus providing the basis for more effective resource allocation and budgeting decisions.     

A quantitative succession model for nine montana forest communities

A quantitative succession model was developed both to meet resource management needs in Montana's Lewis and Clark National Forest and to develop a modeling methodology. It builds upon previous concepts and incudes three new features: quantitative prediction of all tree species and seedlings; quantitative predictions of important understory species; and successional pathways determined by fire intensity and scorch height. The method is described and demonstrated for selected Montana habitat (community) types. It is also available in managerial guidelines and has been programmed as a new module in theforplan simulator. Weaknesses of this and other models are discussed. Conclusions relate succession modeling to resource management needs.