“一带一路”战略的环境风险分析与应对策略

"一带一路"战略的目的在于促进亚洲、欧洲和非洲之间的往来联系,加强区域之间的经济合作与人文交流,从而达到各国共赢的可持续发展。"一带一路"战略目标是要建立一个政治互信、经济融合、文化包容的利益共同体、命运共同体和责任共同体。然而,由于东道国资源环境和生态环境等环境因素的不同以及限制性,在为企业带来一定的投资机遇的同时,使得企业在对外投资过程中面临的挑战日益增多。针对企业"走出去"时可能面临的环境风险,本研究建立了影响企业对外投资的环境影响因素指标体系,运用主成分分析法分析了中国企业在"一带一路"战略沿线国家的环境风险状况。根据研究分析,得出"一带一路"战略沿线国家环境风险指数,相关的资源限制和生态限制因素。最后,结合环境风险状况及以往的合作内容,总结了适宜沿线国家发展的投资类型,并提出相应的对策与建议。本研究通过对"一带一路"沿线国家环境风险评估,为我国在一带一路沿线国家规避环境和投资风险提供依据,推动绿色化"一带一路"建设,与沿线国家分享可持续发展成果。     

长江经济带城市体系空间格局演变

构建科学合理的城市体系空间格局,是推进新型城镇化、促进区域协调发展的重要内容。基于1988、2001、2012年长江经济带城市影响力指数及交通路网数据,运用Kernel密度分析法、分形理论、修正引力模型等方法对长江经济带城市规模结构演变、城市等级结构演变及城市体系演变进行深入分析。结果表明:长江经济带城市规模变化明显,由单一低水平俱乐部向中、高水平的多个俱乐部发展,出现城市规模多峰主的"俱乐部趋同"现象,低、中、高的等级序列分布模式趋于完善;城市规模结构在空间上逐步形成典型的多核心-边缘结构;长江经济带城市规模体系总体呈初级首位型特征,但合理化发展趋势明显;城市引力强度差异持续缩小、地域差异性显著,低层级引力城市多分布在中西部地区;区域内逐步形成长三角、中三角及大西南3大城市体系,而中三角城市体系组织相对松散。基于城市体系格局分析,研究从因素层、机制层、特征层及目标层等4个层次探讨了长江经济带城市体系空间演化机理。     

长江经济带入境旅游经济时空格局动态性——基于ESDA&GWR法

以5 a为时间间隔,运用ESDA法采用旅游外汇收入平均增长量和平均增长率指标,研究长江经济带126个市域单元2000~2015年入境旅游经济的空间格局演化特征,运用GWR法分析入境旅游经济影响因素的空间异质性。结果表明:(1)长江经济带旅游外汇收入平均增长量莫兰指数经历了0.164 6~0.164 1~0.057 2的变化趋势,增量相似市域由较强集聚向较弱集聚转化,市域旅游经济增长趋于均衡。一级热点区始终位于江浙沿海市域。一级冷点区由研究区中部向苏北转移,空间范围大大缩小。(2)长江经济带旅游外汇收入平均增长率莫兰指数表现为0.098 6~0.293 1~0.198 9的变化趋势,市域之间旅游经济增长关联程度增强,总体差异逐渐缩小。一级冷热点区大幅度转移,同时热点区范围大幅度扩大。后期热点市域数量大大超过冷点市域数量。(3)入境旅游发展较为落后的湖南省、云南省增长速度最快,长三角城市群所属市域始终是入境旅游经济增长最活跃的地区。     

长江经济带水资源利用的动态效率及绝对β收敛研究——基于三阶段DEA-Malmquist指数法

利用三阶段DEA-Malmquist指数法,对2009~2014年长江经济带11省市水资源全要素生产率及其分解指数进行了测算和分析。研究结果表明:在剔除了外部环境因素和随机误差因素以后,长江经济带水资源的全要素生产率及其分解效率发生了显著变化,水资源全要素生产率年均增长7.2%,技术进步指数年均增长4.7%,技术效率指数年均增长2.4%,技术进步是推动长江经济带水资源全要素生产率增长的主要源泉。分区域来看,西部地区水资源全要素生产率和技术效率年均增长率最高,东部地区技术进步年均增长率最高。长江经济带水资源全要素生产率存在显著绝对β收敛,表明长江经济带内省际水资源全要素生产率差距正在缩小,最终都朝相同的稳态水平趋近。     

“一带一路”国家天然气投资绩效评价及其改进路径

运用超效率数据包络分析(SE-DEA)方法,综合考虑目标国资源现状、政治因素、经济技术、社会条件、市场体制和国际合作情况,构建天然气投资绩效评价线性规划模型,并以2003—2013年中国对"一带一路"国家的天然气投资绩效均值进行聚类,结合规模报酬和投入要素的影子价格分析,提出目标国天然气投资绩效改进路径。结果显示:(1)中国对中亚及北亚、东南亚和南亚的天然气投资普遍处于中高效区,对独联体、中东欧洲和西亚北非地区的天然气投资普遍处于中低效区。(2)高效区国家自2012年起投资绩效处于规模报酬不变阶段,技术水平和国家经济对天然气贸易的依赖程度是影响投资绩效的关键因素。(3)中效区国家投资绩效大多处于规模报酬递增阶段,从2013年起总储量、人文地理和与中国油气合作状况成为影响中效区投资绩效的关键因素。(4)低效区国家投资绩效处于规模报酬递增阶段,国家经济对天然气贸易的依赖程度和技术水平要素是影响低效区投资绩效的关键因素;此外,对于处于低效区的中亚国家资源现状是影响投资绩效的另一关键因素,政治因素则是中东欧洲和独联体国家的关键因素,东南亚和南亚地区的投资关键因素则包含社会条件。这意味着,中国要提高在"一带一路"区域的天然气投资绩效,就要针对不同地区投资现状制定改进策略。对于高效区和低效区的中亚国家,未来中国要加强同目标国政府间的沟通,达成"以技术换气条款";对中效区和低效区的中东欧洲、独联体国家可采用与油气企业合作方式降低合作风险;对低效区的东南亚和南亚国家,可签订天然气长期贸易合同。     

丝绸之路经济带资源环境成本及生态负荷强度的时空演变分析

为了科学地评价丝绸之路经济带生态系统对经济与社会发展的服务支撑能力,本研究引入生态系统服务理论,构建资源环境成本及绿色GDP核算、生态负荷强度模型,计算出丝绸之路经济带辐射国家2005—2012年的资源环境成本、生态负荷强度,并在此基础上利用探索性空间数据分析方法,对2005年以来丝绸之路经济带的生态负荷强度随时间演变的趋势及其空间分布特征进行分析和探讨(数据获取难易程度,仅分析了部分带内国家)。结果表明:在研究时段内,带内国家或地区的资源环境成本由2005年的675.02×108元攀升至1 178.51×108元(2005年可比价),生态负荷强度由0.3369下降到0.2307;丝绸之路经济带生态负荷强度呈现出由欧洲经济圈向中国西北地区集聚的空间分布特征,其中中亚及中国西北地区为高-高集聚区、欧洲经济圈为低-低集聚区;这种西、东集聚现象的显著性在研究时段内逐渐减弱,且区域生态效益或经济效益持续向周边溢出。     

Long term remediation of highly polluted acid mine drainage: a sustainable approach to restore the environmental quality of the Odiel river basin

During 20 months of proper operation the full scale passive treatment in Mina Esperanza (SW Spain) produced around 100 mg/L of ferric iron in the aeration cascades, removing an average net acidity up to 1500 mg/L as CaCO₃ and not having any significant clogging problem. Complete Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ti and V removal from the water was accomplished through almost the entire operation time while Fe removal ranged between 170 and 620 mg/L. The system operated at a mean inflow rate of 43 m³/day achieving an acid load reduction of 597 g·(m² day)⁻¹, more than 10 times higher than the generally accepted 40 g·(m² day)⁻¹ value commonly used as a passive treatment system designing criteria. The high performance achieved by the passive treatment system at Mina Esperanza demonstrates that this innovative treatment design is a simple, efficient and long lasting remediation option to treat highly polluted acid mine drainage.     

“一带一路”沿线自然灾害分布特征研究

“一带一路”是促进各国经济、社会高速发展的跨时代宏伟构想,更是加强国际交流合作的重要契机。“一带一路”战略涉及范围达65个国家,其自然灾害造成的危害和经济损失是强烈和致命的。对“一带一路”所经区域的自然灾害及其分布特征的研究,显示全球范围内自然灾害呈现出逐年上升、以洪涝和地震灾害最为显著的趋势;东亚地区的地震和洪涝灾害,中亚、西亚地区的干旱灾害,中东欧地区的高温及洪涝灾害都显示出地区性的主要灾害影响特征;灾害分布特征的研究对“一带一路”所经地带的自然灾害防御具有重要意义,也对促成“一带一路”经济带的安全展开有着学术性的意义。     

Influence of different nitrogen rich supplements during cultivation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pleurotus </Emphasis><Emphasis Type="Italic">florida</Emphasis> on corn cob substrate

The cultivation of white rot edible fungus Pleurotus florida was performed in polybags. The corn cob was employed as basal substrate while eight different additives such as urea, ammonium sulphate, gram flour, soybean meal, ground nut cake and molasses were used with corn cob. Three different levels of variable combinations with corn cob were evaluated in response to different parameters of mushroom viz., mycelial growth, spawn running, primordial initiation, fruit body yield and its biological efficiency. Each additive at different combinations showed variable impact on the different stages of mushroom life cycle. The primordial initiation was observed for the first time during 20.2–35.1 days. The biological efficiencies in every supplemented set were increased over un-supplemented control set. Increasing the level of additives, the biological efficiency was negatively affected at higher levels. The cotton seed cake was found the best supplement producing 93.75% biological efficiency while soybean meal was the second best additive producing 93.00% yield. The highest growth rate, rapid mycelia run, early primordial initiation, highest yield and biological efficiency were recorded in the combination of corn cob and cotton seed cake at 2% (98 + 2) level.     

Speciation and uptake of arsenic accumulated by corn seedlings using XAS and DRC-ICP-MS

ICP-MS was used to investigate the uptake of As(III) and As(V) from hydroponics growth media by corn seedlings. It was found that arsenic uptake by the plant roots for the arsenic(V) and arsenic(III) treatments were 95 and 112 ppm, respectively. However, in the shoots of the arsenic (V) treatments had 18 ppm whereas arsenic(III) treatments had 12 ppm. XANES studies showed that As for both treatments arsenic was present as a mixture of an As(III) sulfur complex and an As(V) oxygen complex. The XANES data was corroborated by the EXAFS studies showing the presence of both oxygen and sulfur ligands coordinated to the arsenic. Iron concentrations were found to increase by 4 fold in the As(V) contaminated growth media and 7 fold in the As(III) treatment compared to the control iron concentration of 500 ppm. Whereas, the total iron concentration in the shoots was found to decrease by approximately the same amount for both treatments from 360 ppm in the control to approximately 125 ppm in both arsenic treatments. Phosphorus concentrations were found to decrease in both the roots and shoots compared to the control plants. The total sulfur in the roots was found to increase in the arsenic(III) and arsenic(V) treatments to 560 ppm and 800 ppm, respectively, compared to the control plants 358 ppm. In addition, the total sulfur in shoots of the plants was found to remain relatively constant at approximately 1080 ppm. The potassium concentrations in the plants were found to increase in the roots and decrease in the shoots.