SENSITWITY ANALYSIS OF SIMULATED CONTAMINATED SEDIMENT TRANSPORT1

ABSTRACT: A simulation analysis of contaminated sediment transport involves model selection, data collection, model calibration and verification, and evaluation of uncertainty in the results. Sensitivity analyses provide information to address these issues at several stages of the investigation. A sensitivity analysis of simulated contaminated sediment transport is used to identify the most sensitive output variables and the parameters most responsible for the output variable sensitivity. The output variables included are streamflow and the flux of sediment and Cs¹³⁷. The sensitivities of these variables are measured at the field and intermediate scales, for flood and normal flow conditions, using the HSPF computer model. A sensitivity index was used to summarize and compare the results of a large number of output variables and parameters. An extensive database was developed to calibrate the model and conduct the sensitivity analysis on a 6.2 mi² catchment in eastern Tennessee. The fluxes of sediment and Cs¹³⁷ were more sensitive than streamflow to changes in parameters for both flood and normal flow conditions. The relative significance of specific parameters on output variable sensitivity varied according to the type of flow condition and the location in the catchment. An implications section illustrates how sensitivity analysis results can help with model selection, planning data collection, calibration, and uncertainty analysis.     

An investigation on biological stability of product water generated by lab-scale and pilot-scale distillation systems

Material Disposal Area G is the primary low-levelradioactive waste disposal site at Los Alamos NationalLaboratory, New Mexico, and is adjacent to Pueblo of SanIldefonso lands. Pueblo residents and Los Alamos scientists areconcerned about radiological doses resulting from uptake of AreaG radionuclides by mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) andRocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus), then consumption ofdeer and elk meat by humans. Tissue samples were collected fromdeer and elk accidentally killed near Area G and were analyzedfor ³H, ⁹⁰Sr, total U, ²³⁸Pu, ^{239, 240}Pu,²⁴¹Am, and ¹³⁷Cs. These data were used to estimatehuman doses based on meat consumption of 23 kg y^-1. Humandoses were also modeled using RESRAD, and dose rates to deer andelk were estimated with a screening model. Dose estimates tohumans from tissue consumption were 2.9 × 10^-3 mSv y^-1and 1.6 × 10^-3 mSv y^-1 from deer and elk, respectively,and RESRAD dose estimates were of the same order of magnitude. Estimated dose rates to deer and elk were 2.1 × 10^-4 mGyd^-1 and 4.7 × 10^-4 mGy d^-1, respectively. Allestimated doses were significantly less than established exposurelimits or guidelines.     

Contrasting cesium dynamics in neighboring deep and shallow warm-water reservoirs

To measure the long term retention and seasonal dynamics of an initial 4 kg addition of ¹³³Cs into an 11.4-ha, 157,000 m³ reservoir (Pond 4, near Aiken, South Carolina, USA), the concentrations and inventories of ¹³³Cs in the water column were measured at periodical intervals for 522 days following the 1 August, 1999 release. After rapid declines in concentrations and inventories during the first 90 days, the ¹³³Cs concentrations in the water column declined at an average proportional rate of 0.004 d⁻¹. However, there were periods of less rapid and more rapid rates of declines, and these were correlated with periods of increasing and decreasing K concentrations in the water column. The decline rates were less and the K concentrations greater in the winter than in the summer. In the deeper, neighboring monomictic reservoirs of Par Pond and Pond B, a yearly cycle of increasing and decreasing ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in the water column is driven by anoxic remobilization of Cs from the sediments into a persistent summer hypolimnion. In Pond 4, whose mean depth of 1.6 m is too shallow to support a persistent anoxic hypolimnion, the pattern of yearly dynamics for K and Cs appear to be related to the accumulation and release of these elements from the extensive, seasonal macrophyte communities. The contrasting results between Pond 4 and Pond B suggest that a full appreciation of the relative importance of 1) anoxic remobilization and 2) accumulation and release by macrophytes in these systems remains to be established.     

Radioactivity measurements in moss (Hypnum cupressiforme) and lichen (Cladonia rangiformis) samples collected from Marmara region of Turkey

The present study was conducted to compare the ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ²³²Th, and ²³⁸U activity concentrations in epigeic moss (Hypnum cupressiforme) and lichen (Cladonia rangiformis). The activity levels in 37 moss and 38 lichen samples collected from the Marmara region of Turkey were measured using a gamma spectrometer equipped with a high purity germanium (HPGe) detector. The activity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ²³²Th, and ²³⁸U in the moss samples were found to be in the range of 0.36-8.13, 17.1-181.1, 1.51-6.17, and 0.87-6.70 Bq kg⁻¹ respectively, while these values were below detection limit (BDL)-4.32, 16.6-240.0, 1.32-6.47, and BDL-3.57 Bq kg⁻¹ respectively in lichen. The average moss/lichen activity ratios of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ²³²Th, and ²³⁸U were found to be 1.32 ± 0.57, 2.79 ± 1.67, 2.11 ± 0.82, and 2.19 ± 1.02, respectively. Very low ¹³⁷Cs concentrations were observed in moss and lichen samples compared to soil samples collected from the same locations in a previous study. Seasonal variations of the measured radionuclide activities were also examined in the three sampling stations.     

Plutonium, 137Cs and 90Sr in selected invertebrates from some areas around Chernobyl nuclear power plant

Results are presented for ¹³⁷Cs, ⁹⁰Sr and plutonium activity concentrations in more than 20 samples of terrestrial invertebrates, including species of beetles, ants, spiders and millipedes, collected in the highly contaminated area of the Chernobyl exclusion zone. The majority of samples were collected in Belarus, with some also collected in the Ukraine. Three other samples were collected in an area of lower contamination. Results show that seven samples exceed an activity concentration of 100 kBq/kg (ash weight - a.w.) for ¹³⁷Cs. The maximum activity concentration for this isotope was 1.52 ± 0.08 MBq/kg (a.w.) determined in ants (Formica cynerea). Seven results for ⁹⁰Sr exceeded 100 kBq/kg (a.w.), mostly for millipedes. Relatively high plutonium activity concentrations were found in some ants and earth-boring dung beetles. Analyses of activity ratios showed differences in transfer of radionuclides between species. To reveal the correlation structure of the multivariate data set, the Partial Least-Squares method (PLS) was used. Results of the PLS model suggest that high radiocesium activity concentrations in animal bodies can be expected mainly for relatively small creatures living on the litter surface. In contrast, high strontium activity concentrations can be expected for creatures which conduct their lives within litter, having mixed trophic habits and a moderate lifespan. No clear conclusions could be made for plutonium.     

Deposition of artificial radionuclides from atmospheric Nuclear Weapon Tests estimated by soil inventories in French areas low-impacted by Chernobyl

Soil inventories of anthropogenic radionuclides were investigated in altitudinal transects in 2 French regions, Savoie and Montagne Noire. Rain was negligible in these 2 areas the days after the Chernobyl accident. Thus anthropogenic radionuclides are coming hypothetically only from Global Fallout following Atmospheric Nuclear Weapon Tests. This is confirmed by the isotopic signatures (²³⁸Pu/^239+240Pu; ¹³⁷Cs/^239+240Pu; and ²⁴¹Am/^239+240Pu) close to Global Fallout value. In Savoie, a peat core age-dated by ²¹⁰Pb_ex confirmed that the main part of deposition of anthropogenic radionuclides occurred during the late sixties and the early seventies. In agreement with previous studies, the anthropogenic radionuclide inventories are well correlated with the annual precipitations. However, this is the first time that a study investigates such a large panel of annual precipitation and therefore of anthropogenic radionuclide deposition. It seems that at high-altitude sites, deposition of artificial radionuclides was higher possibly due to orographic precipitations.     

The contents and forms of solid-phase species of radioactive strontium and cesium in Taiwan soils

This study was to investigate the activities and contents of ¹³⁷Cs in the profiles of selected arable and forest soils in Taiwan and various solid-phase species of ⁸⁵Sr and ¹³⁷Cs in selected arable soils in Taiwan. The gamma (γ) ray spectra of the collected soil samples and some of the soils amended with ⁸⁵Sr and ¹³⁷Cs were measured. The data indicate that the arable soils from Sanhsing series, Sanhsing Township and Chuangwei series, Chuangwei Township, Ilan County, and from Tunglochuan series, Pinglin Township, Taipei County shows significantly higher radioactivity of ¹³⁷Cs (ND − 11.0 ± 0.2 Bq kg⁻¹). Furthermore, the radioactivity of ¹³⁷Cs in the mountain soils (1.24 ± 0.07 − 42 ± 1 Bq kg⁻¹) from Yuanyang Lake Nature Preserve among Ilan, Taoyuan, and Hsinchu Counties is the highest among the investigated mountain forest soils. This may be mainly attributed to the fact that Ilan County is located in the northeastern part of Taiwan and faces the northeastern and northern seasonal winds with lots of precipitation annually from mid-autumn through mid-spring next year and is receiving greater amount of fallouts yearly. Due to longer reaction period (≥3 y) of ¹³⁷Cs with soil components, ¹³⁷Cs was mainly in the forms bound to oxides and to organic matter in the soil amended with ¹³⁷Cs and in the soil contaminated with ¹³⁷Cs. On the contrary, due to shorter reaction period (<60 d) of ⁸⁵Sr with soil components, ⁸⁵Sr was mainly in exchangeable form and partially in the forms bound to carbonates and oxides in the soils amended with ⁸⁵Sr.     

Monitoring of Radiation-Exposed People Close to Mayak Nuclear Facility in the Chelyabinsk Region (Russia) Using Different Biodosimetric Methods

Between 1949 and 1957 Mayak Nuclear Facility locatedin the Chelyabinsk region released some discharges ofradiochemical production wastes into the Techa Riverand Lake Karachay which resulted in an extensivecontamination of large territories with long-livedradionuclides such as ⁹⁰Sr, ¹³⁷Cs, and²³⁹Pu. Between 1994 and 1996 the research teamof Siberian Medical University conducted thechromosome analysis and the electron-spin resonance(ESR) spectrometry of tooth enamel in theradiation-exposed inhabitants of four settlements inthe Techa River region. We observed significantlyincreased levels of chromosome aberrations in theradiation-exposed inhabitants as compared to thecontrols. The ESR signal intensity and the chromosomeaberration frequency in lymphocytes of the toothdonors showed a good correlation. Moreover, therewas a good correlation between the level ofwhole-body ¹³⁷Cs activity detected by awhole-body radiation counter and the frequency ofchromosome aberrations among the radiation-exposed inhabitants. The data showed that 15% of theinhabitants of the Muslyumovo settlement received aradiation dose exceeding 100 cGy. The frequency ofchromosome abnormalities reached its peak in thepersons born between 1949 and 1957. We suppose thatradionuclides incorporated in the body are responsiblefor the chromosome aberrations in the inhabitants.     

Short- and long-term patterns of ¹³⁷Cs in fish and other aquatic organisms of small forest lakes in southern Finland since the Chernobyl accident

We summarize the patterns of ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations and transfer into fish and other biota in four small forest lakes in southern Finland during a twenty-year period following the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. The results from summer 1986 showed fastest accumulation of ¹³⁷Cs into planktivorous fishes, i.e. along the shortest food chains. Since 1987, the highest annual mean values of ¹³⁷Cs have been recorded in fish occupying the highest trophic levels, for perch (Perca fluviatilis) 13,600 Bq/kg (ww) and for pike (Esox lucius) 20,700 Bq/kg (ww). At the same time, activity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs in crustacean zooplankton and Asellus aquaticus have ranged between 1000 and 19,500 Bq/kg (dw). In 2006, 5-28% of the 1987 ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration levels were still present in perch and pike. Since 1989 their ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations in oligohumic seepage lakes have remained significantly higher than in polyhumic drainage lakes due to the increased transfer of ¹³⁷Cs into fish in the seepage lakes with lower electrolyte concentrations, longer water retention times and lower sedimentation rate.     

The simulation of long-range transport of ¹³⁷Cs from East Asia to Japan in 2002 and 2006

To evaluate the quantities of ¹³⁷Cs from past nuclear tests being transported to and deposited in Japan by naturally-occurring phenomena, the authors developed long-range transport models for ¹³⁷Cs considering Asian dust. The simulation using these models backed the observed recent increase of ¹³⁷Cs deposition along the coast of the Sea of Japan in early spring. For the sake of public safety, it is vital to ascertain whether an increase of radioactive deposition is caused by natural phenomena or a nuclear accident. The observations in recent years have suggested that dust and soil containing ¹³⁷Cs is transported from the regions around Inner Mongolia to Japan by the wind. In this paper, using observation data from the early spring of 2002 and 2006, the authors have found good agreement between the simulations and the measurements. The simulations reproduced the entrainment of ¹³⁷Cs and subsequent transport to Japan caused by strong winds associated with low pressure areas around the Inner Mongolian grasslands. The most likely cause of high-level ¹³⁷Cs deposition over northern Japan during March 2002 was ¹³⁷Cs associated with particles transported at low-altitude (1 km) and subjected to precipitation on the 22nd to 24th.