陕西关中地区城市灾害评价

本文在详细分析关中地区六个大中城市的主要自然灾害和城市地质灾害的基础上，分别评价了各种灾害造成的经济损失，各个城市的灾害危险性、易损性和抗灾能力，并结合防灾对策对城市进行了综合分类。     

Queen longevity,queen adoption,and posthumous indirect fitness in the facultatively polygynous ant Myrmica tahoensis

In many polygynous ant species, established colonies adopt new queens secondarily. Conflicts over queen adoption might arise between queens and workers of established colonies and the newly mated females seeking adoption into nests. Colony members are predicted to base adoption decisions on their relatednesses to other participants, on competition between queens for colony resources, and on the effects that adopted queens have on colony survivorship and productivity. To provide a better understanding of queen-adoption dynamics in a facultatively polygynous ant, colonies of Myrmica tahoensis were observed in the field for 4 consecutive years and analyzed genetically using highly polymorphic microsatellite DNA markers. The extreme rarity of newly founded colonies suggests that most newly mated queens that succeed do so by entering established nests. Queens are closely related on average (rˉ = 0.58), although a sizable minority of queen pairs (29%) are not close relatives. An experiment involving transfers of queens among nests showed that queens are often accepted by workers to which they are completely unrelated. Average queen numbers estimated from nest excavations (harmonic mean = 1.4) are broadly similar to effective queen numbers inferred from the genetic relatedness of colony members, suggesting that reproductive skew is low in this species. Queens appear to have reproductive lifespans of only 1 or 2 years. As a result, queens transmit a substantial fraction of their genes posthumously (through the reproduction of related nestmates), in comparison to direct and indirect reproduction while they are alive. Thus queens and other colony members should often accept new queens when doing so will increase colony survivorship, in some cases even when the adopted queens are not close relatives. Received: 20 February 1996/Accepted after revision: 25 May 1996     

An analysis of motorcycle injury and vehicle damage severity using ordered probit models

Problem: Motorcycles constitute about 19% of all motorized vehicles in Singapore and are generally overrepresented in traffic accidents, accounting for 40% of total fatalities. Method: In this paper, an ordered probit model is used to examine factors that affect the injury severity of motorcycle accidents and the severity of damage to the vehicle for those crashes. Nine years of motorcycle accident data were obtained for Singapore through police reports. These data included categorical assessments of the severity of accidents based on three levels. Damage severity to the vehicle was also assessed and categorized into four levels. Categorical data of this type are best analyzed using ordered probit models because they require no assumptions regarding the ordinality of the dependent variable, which in this case is the severity score. Various models are examined to determine what factors are related to increased injury and damage severity of motorcycle accidents. Results: Factors found to lead to increases in the probability of severe injuries include the motorcyclist having non-Singaporean nationality, increased engine capacity, headlight not turned on during daytime, collisions with pedestrians and stationary objects, driving during early morning hours, having a pillion passenger, and when the motorcyclist is determined to be at fault for the accident. Factors leading to increased probability of vehicle damage include some similar factors but also show some differences, such as less damage associated with pedestrian collisions and with female drivers. In addition, it was also found that both injury severity and vehicle damage severity levels are decreasing over time.