高层官员地震应急演练中应急决策行为的质性分析

为了研究高层官员在非常规突发事件应对中的决策行为,通过地震应急演练,从决策建议的影响、决策对象的选择与优先级排序等方面对决策样本进行质性分析。应用NVivo12软件对某次高层官员参与的特大地震应急决策演练中采集的45份决策样本,在结构化处理的基础上确定编码标准,遍历样本并对应急决策编码,得到观测数据并进行分析。研究结果表明,演练中的高层官员决策行为有以下3方面特征:受决策建议影响明显;在灾情、舆情以及基础设施等方面有自主决策;不同层级间对决策权重排序存在显著差异。     

城市轨道交通车站应急疏散方案决策研究

城市轨道交通应急疏散方案决策是1个多准则决策问题,传统方法难以将决策者的偏好与风险倾向纳入考虑,因此引入累积前景理论与集对分析,得到1种结合累积前景理论与集对分析的决策方法。该方法考虑决策者面对风险时的态度,计算出方案的累积前景值;引入集对分析,通过时间权重与准则权重将前景值与集对势联系起来,计算出方案综合集对势,并利用其大小对备选方案进行排序;最后通过实例计算以及对权重的扰动分析,验证了方法有效性。     

秋色叶树种在园林造景中的应用

秋色叶树种是园林造景中重要的观赏树种之一，我国秋色叶树木资源十分丰富，开发利用秋色叶树木资源对我国园林建设具有重要意义．作者分析了秋色叶树种内涵，主要树种的性状、特征、观赏价值及在我国自然秋色景观中的应用等，初步探讨了它们在城市园林造景中应用方式、应用前景，提出了秋色叶树种选择应用的原则及应注意的问题．     

Choosing a home: how the scouts in a honey bee swarm perceive the completion of their group decision making

This study considers the mystery of how the scout bees in a honey bee swarm know when they have completed their group decision making regarding the swarm's new nest site. More specifically, we investigated how the scouts sense when it is appropriate for them to begin producing the worker piping signals that stimulate their swarm-mates to prepare for the flight to their new home. We tested two hypotheses: "consensus sensing," the scouts noting when all the bees performing waggle dances are advertising just one site; and "quorum sensing," the scouts noting when one site is being visited by a sufficiently large number of scouts. Our test involved monitoring four swarms as they discovered, recruited to, and chose between two nest boxes and their scouts started producing piping signals. We found that a consensus among the dancers was neither necessary nor sufficient for the start of worker piping, which indicates that the consensus sensing hypothesis is false. We also found that a buildup of 10–15 or more bees at one of the nest boxes was consistently associated with the start of worker piping, which indicates that the quorum sensing hypothesis may be true. In considering why the scout bees rely on reaching a quorum rather than a consensus as their cue of when to start preparing for liftoff, we suggest that quorum sensing may provide a better balance between accuracy and speed in decision making. In short, the bees appear to begin preparations for liftoff as soon as enough of the scout bees, but not all of them, have approved of one of the potential nest sites.

加速遗传算法及其在暴雨强度公式参数优化中的应用

提出了一般非线性自然灾害模型参数优化的一种通用的数值方法———加速遗传算法,分析了该算法控制参数的优化特性,总结出了这些参数的简便设置技术,并给出了它在暴雨强度公式参数优化中的应用实例。该方法可广泛应用于各种自然灾害模型的优化问题。     

化学氧化-混凝法处理废纸再生造纸废水动态实验

采用 70L/h的装置进行化学氧化法处理废纸造纸废水动态实验。结果表明 ,动态实验的处理效果和操作条件与静态实验基本相符。在KMnO4 加量为 10～ 13mg/L、氧化时间为 2 5min、混凝剂A加量为 16 0～ 2 5 0mg/L、混凝剂B为 5 7～ 6 2mg/L时 ,装置出水CODCr降至 6 0～ 70mg/L、CODCr去除率高达 90 5 %～ 93 6 % ,水质优于国家一级排放标准 (GB35 44 92 )。实验得到了废水在沉降器中的沉降曲线     

2000年环保战略目标定量考核方法研究

参加国家环保局科技3项费用课题《2000年环境保护战略目标定量考核指标研究》的8个地区对于2000年环保战略目标提出了不同的考核方法.本文在深入分析各种考核方法的基础上,通过归纳总结,向读者推荐几种基本方法,它们是 TOPS(?)S 方法、简单加性加权法和公式计分法.这些方法是一些基本的数学手段,通过对各具体考核指标的适当综合,归纳出表征总体目标实现程度的数值.即:这些方法是整体考核方法,从整体上说明存在问题和差距,为决策者提供实现环保战略目标的科学依据.     

Women's opinions on the offer and use of maternal serum screening

We studied the opinions and experiences concerning maternal serum screening of two groups of women: (A) women who were not eligible for prenatal diagnosis; and (B) women for whom prenatal diagnosis was available because of advanced maternal age, and who either underwent chorionic villus sampling or amniocentesis. Many of the women were in favour of the availability of serum screening and would apply for this test in a future pregnancy. This applied also to many respondents who had previously undergone prenatal diagnosis. Most of these women, however, did not intend to decline diagnostic amniocentesis if the screening results did not indicate an increased risk. The majority of the group of respondents of 36 years and over did not consider it acceptable if age indication was dropped altogether. A system based on serum screening will have other implications than a policy based on age indication, since specific individual risk assessment is perceived as being of more significance than a risk statistically derived from age alone. Serum screening is often seen as a means of reassurance and many women are not aware of the possible drawbacks. As technology becomes increasingly complicated, counselling has to be adjusted correspondingly. Further research is needed to establish whether and how distress can be minimized and well-considered individual choice can be achieved.     

海河平原农业供水的决策分析模型

本文根据海河平原水源不足的问题,采用系统分析的方法,探讨了农业供水的对策。提出的决策分析模型可望适用于不同大小的区域。通过实际资料的分析得出实行节流、管理与开源的具体方案及经济效益。分析成果表明推行节水灌溉技术与管理措施是完全可行的。在建立节流系统(包括管带与滴灌及调整耕作制度、作物布局)和加强水管理的基础上,实行开源引江、引黄,可大大缩减调水规模,降低开源工程投资,缓和工农与城乡供水的矛盾。