防洪物资储备决策方法初探

根据防洪抢险物资储备属于一种信息不全型决策问题的特点,本文提出了一种用于确定每年防灾物资准备量概率排序决策模型,并以孙不河流泥石流灾害预报火灾决策为例进行说明。     

INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN OPTIMIZATION: MODELING ECONOMIC AND HYDROLOGIC INTERDEPENDENCE1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents an integrated optimal control model that optimizes economic performance of reservoir management in watersheds in which there are significant economic and hydrologic interdependencies. The model is solved using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). Results show that application of this model to New Mexico's Rio Chama basin can increase total system benefits over historical benefits by exploiting complementarities between hydroelectricity production, instream recreation, and downstream lake recreation.     

建筑物消防系统可靠性分析

为评估建筑物消防系统的可靠性,首先将系统分为探测报警系统和灭火系统等部分,再用事件树法分析事故发生时消防系统不同部分的反应情况.通过贝叶斯理论及历史统计数据得到系统失效率的不确定性概率分布,建立消防系统可靠性随时间变化的数学模型; 用蒙特卡罗方法模拟求得系统可靠性的时间函数并对模型的不确定性参数进行敏感性分析.该方法将统计数据与经验公式、理论方法相结合,并利用蒙特卡罗方法处理模型中的不确定性,不仅能够有效估计消防系统的可靠性,还可对其他类似系统的可靠性进行分析,并通过敏感性分析为进一步减少估计的不确定性提出合理建议.     

灾难事件后继风险决策

对小概率/高风险的灾难事件的后继风险决策进行探讨,着重在决策的认知神经经济模型框架下,讨论灾难事件后继风险决策的影响因素。灾难事件后人们的风险觉知、信念和假定、经验等认知因素以及灾后情绪因素对于决策分别有不同的影响;人们灾后决策的特点为决策更多直觉化而较少运用理性分析;灾难后继决策有随时间变化的趋势,灾难事件后人们为寻求安全感而出现"损失偏差"(loss bias),该偏差在"获得"和"损失"两种条件下的影响是不同的。灾后风险决策的内在机制或可用思维和决策的双加工系统(dual-process)模型来解释。最后展望了灾难事件后继决策进一步的研究方向。     

绿色环保、高效节能、资源循环利用的清洁炼钢厂

主要介绍宝钢集团浦钢搬迁罗泾工程为建设绿色环保、高效节能、资源循环利用的现代清洁炼钢厂所采用的工艺技术、技术装备和技术措施。对炼钢工程中所采用的各种工艺技术、技术装备和技术措施等进行说明和分析。     

Integrated model for renewable energy planning in Turkey

All economic sectors are associated with energy use; therefore, government organizations aim to supply sustainable energy for human needs and economic growth. In particular, increased environmental concerns of the public in Turkey have impacted policymaking for renewable energy (RE) management in Turkey. The primary objective for RE sources of the Turkish Ministry of Energy is to ensure that 30% of the share of electricity production is from RE resources in 2023. In this paper, the integrated multi-objective, multi-period linear programming model is presented to determine effective allocation of RE supply for seven different geographical regions in Turkey for the period of 2017 to 2024. The integrated model consists of two different stages. The first stage involves qualitative evaluations of RE sources for seven geographical regions. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to determine criteria priorities and overall ratings of geographical regions across determined criteria for RE sources are computed. The second stage of the integrated model consists of a multi-objective, multi-period linear programming model. The proposed multi-objective linear programming model is coded in MPL (Mathematical Programming Language) and solved using the GUROBI 5.1.0 solver. The output of the integrated model presents the total supply amount of RE sources for geographical regions in planning period. The ε-constraints method is applied to compute the total supply amount of RE from geographical regions for the period of 2017 to 2024. In this study, a systematic decision-making model is generated to allocate renewable energy sources to the geographical regions. The presented model integrates qualitative evaluations and quantitative parameters of different geographical regions to determine the optimal supply amount of RE. The obtained results are consistent with the potential quantities of RE alternatives in geographical regions, regional specifications, and social requirements.     

半结构决策方法在松花江蓄洪区选址问题中的研究

研究松花江蓄洪区选址问题的决策方法.松花江蓄滞洪区选址问题涉及诸多定性指标和定量指标,属于半结构决策问题.本文综合层次分析法和模糊优选法,提出求解这类问题的一种半结构决策方法.基本方法是:将评价指标分为定性指标和定量指标;对于定性应用层次分析法,求其评价矩阵;对于定量指标应用相对隶属度方法,求其评价矩阵;二者合成得到全体指标的评价矩阵;最后利用模糊优选法求得最优决策.应用该方法于松花江流域蓄滞洪区的方案选择中.     

微生物絮凝剂处理造纸中段废水的实验研究

实验从土壤中分离筛选出1株絮凝活性较高的絮凝剂产生菌,经鉴定为1株黑曲霉.采用其产生的微生物絮凝剂M-2处理造纸中段废水,对絮凝条件进行了优化,在最佳絮凝条件下,M-2对造纸中段废水的CODcr去除率可达70.6%,浊度去除率可达91.7%,其絮凝效果优于传统的絮凝剂.     

省级环境决策支持系统的二次开发

介绍了省级环境决策支持系统的应用和二次开发研究的基本思路。主要内容包括系统目标、功能需求、开发环境、数据需求和系统结构。      

制浆造纸工业废水达标可行性研究

2008年6月颁布的《制浆造纸工业水污染物排放标准》(GB 3544-2008)与原标准(GB 3544-2001)相比,增加了控制排放的污染物项目,污染物排放控制要求也大幅提高,传统的废水二级生化处理工艺已不能满足新标准要求。文章通过梳理和分析调研及现场监测的资料和数据,提出目前制浆造纸企业通过有效的技术改造和升级,增加废水三级深度处理流程,在加强管理的情况下可以实现废水稳定达标排放。但不可避免会增加企业建设和运营成本,大中型制浆造纸企业尚可接受,对小型企业的冲击则相对较大。同时提出目前制浆造纸企业废水处理仍存在一些技术和管理方面的问题,尚需通过制定技术规范、强化环境监管、深入开展相关基础研究等多方面对策,优化制浆造纸行业结构调整,确保行业污染物减排。