由三个地震模式讨论1995年日本阪神大震的预报问题

本文由我们已往提出的三个地震模式讨论了１９９５年日本阪神大震（Ｍ７．２）的预报问题。这些模式是立交模式、组合模式和调制模式。此外还用柯里奥利力（Ｃｏｒｒｉｏｌｉ）的效应讨论了主震３年后最强余震的预报。     

Ecological approach to resource survey and planning for environmentally significant Areas: The ABC method

A resource survey and planning method for parks, reserves, and other environmentally significant areas (ESAs) is presented in the context of a holistic balanced approach to land use and environmental management. This method provides a framework for the acquisition, analysis, presentation, and application of diverse ecological data pertinent to land use planning and resource management within ESAs. Through the independent analysis and subsequent integration of abiotic, biotic, and cultural or ABC information, land areas within an ESA are identified in terms of their relative environmental significance and environmental constraints. The former term encompasses wildlife, historic, and other resource values, while the latter term reflects biophysical hazards and sensitivities, and land use conflicts. The method thus calls for a matching of an ESA's distinctive attributes with appropriate land use and institutional arrancements through an analysis of available acts, regulations, agencies, and other conservation and land use management mechanisms. The method culminates with a management proposal showing proposed park or reserve allocations, buffer areas, or other land use controls aimed at preserving an ESA's special ecological qualities, while providing for resource development. The authors suggest that all resource management decisions affecting ESA's should be governed by a philosophical stance that recognizes a spectrum of broad land use types, ranging from preservation to extractive use and rehabilitation.     

Determination of optimum minimum flow from a dam by using energy analysis

The proposed restoration of an abandoned hydroelectric dam on the Quinebaug River, Connecticut, is studied using energy analysis. The analysis considers the effects of alternative minimum flow releases, ranging from 0 to 34 cubic meters per second (cms), on the total energy flow of the affected system. The principal system components affected by differing minimum flows are hydroelectric power generation, aquatic habitat, and gross aquatic ecosystem productivity.The minimum flow alternative resulting in the highest annual energy flow in the affected system is considered optimal. From this purely analytical point of view, the optimum minimum flow is 0 cms, due to the short length and low productivity of the regulated reach, and the lack of floodplain interactions.Simulations of longer and more productive river reaches were conducted. For very short, unproductive reaches, in the absence of a floodplain, the contribution of aquatic community productivity to total system energy flow is negligible compared to hydroelectric generation. Optimum minimum flows are higher for longer and more productive reaches. For such cases the operation of hydroelectric dams could reduce total system energy flow because the energy supplied by hydroelectric generation may be offset by losses in aquatic productivity due to diminished riverine habitat.     

Sweet for the sour: Incentives in environmental mediation

The siting of facilities with undesirable environmental characteristics often leads to public conflict. Efforts to resolve the conflict and make siting decisions frequently exacerbate the problem. Environmental mediation, the process of negotiating an agreeable settlement, is an accepted approach to resolving conflict. This paper explores the use of incentive systems as a means of achieving equity in environmental mediation. Obnoxious and noxious characteristics of facilities are discussed as the basis of conflicts. Four types of incentives—mitigation, compensation, reward, and participation—are discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of the utility and application of incentives for solving environmental conflicts.     

Who should prepare environmental impact assessments?

The practice of EIA preparation in a number of states and countries is reviewed in the light of the need to avoid bias, integrate the EIA with project design, and make the proponent pay. It is concluded that the best arrangement may be to make the proponent responsible for EIA preparation and to advise a number of constraints designed to improve the quality of the studies and reduce bias. First, the proponent should be required to select a consultant from a register of those known to be honest, unbiased, technically competent, and capable of working with a design team. Second, two steering committees should be established to identify key issues, specify data collection and modeling programs and methods, and ensure that the study stays on course.     

Assessing national sustainable development strategies: Strengthening the links to operational policy

At the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, it was agreed that all countries should develop a national sustainable develop‐ment strategy (NSDS) as a key component of implementing the goals of Agenda 21. Progress has been limited. Few countries have established a formal strategy, and many of the strategies that exist have been only partially implemented. This article proposes an approach that addresses the need to improve existing strategic planning mechanisms. The approach is based on a periodic assessment of existing systems, to evaluate the extent to which they incorporate NSDS principles, and identify areas to be strengthened. The article describes an assessment methodology, presents examples of its use, and discusses ways in which current approaches to NSDS may be complemented by continual review and improvement of existing planning processes.     

What's wrong with virtual trees? Restoring from stress in a mediated environment

Restorative environments are environments that can help restore depleted attention resources or reduce emotional and psychophysiological stress. These effects have been demonstrated not only in real environments, but also in mediated (projected, broadcasted, etc.) environments. However, the importance of simulation qualities to restoration outcomes has not been systematically studied. The present experiment investigates the importance of immersion in a mediated environment in relation to restoration. Is a projected natural environment more restorative when one is more immersed in it, and hence feels more present in it? The hypothesis was that a more immersive projection would show stronger stress-reducing effects of a mediated restorative environment. After performing a stress-inducing task, participants watched a nature film on either a high or low immersive screen. Physiological measurements (heart period and skin conductance level) were taken throughout the experiment. In addition, we measured self-reported affect and presence using the ITC-Sense of Presence Questionnaire. Significant effects of the screen size manipulation appeared on physiological measures, but not on self-reported affect. The data showed an interaction between screen size and restorative phase on heart period and skin conductance level, indicating stronger restoration for the immersive screen condition over time. We therefore conclude that immersion enhances restorative potential of a mediated natural environment. Self-reported affect did correlate significantly with experienced presence, illustrating the relevance of this experiential counterpart of immersion, although a mediating effect of presence has not yet been established.     

浅谈安全生产标准化建设

阐述了大冶有色金属公司安全生产标准化建设内容，安全生产标准制定准则，建设体系以及建设效果，为现代企业安全生产管理积累了经验，可供借鉴。     

入世中国环境保护的挑战与机遇

本文着重分析了入世给中国环境保护事业带来的挑战和机遇。作者认为,入世在短期内将给中国的环境状况和环境保护带来沉重的压力;但从长远来看,入世将改善我国的环境状况并推动环境保护的发展。