Using adaptive governance to rethink the way science supports Australian drought policy

In this paper we show how ideas from a longstanding but little recognised literature on adaptive governance can be used to rethink the way science supports Australian drought policy. We compare and contrast alternative ways of using science to support policy in order to critique traditional commentary on Australian drought policy. We find that criticism from narrow disciplinary and institutional perspectives has provided few practical options for policy makers managing these complex and interacting goals. In contrast, ideas from a longstanding but little recognised literature on adaptive governance have potential to create innovative policy options for addressing the multiple interacting goals of Australian drought policy.From an adaptive governance perspective, the deep concern held by Australian society for rural communities affected by drought can be viewed as a common property resource that can be sustainably managed by governments in cooperation with rural communities. Managing drought assistance as a common property resource can be facilitated through nested and polycentric systems of governance similar to those that have already evolved in other arenas of natural resource management in Australia, such as Landcare groups and Catchment Management Authorities. Essential to delivering these options is the creation of flexible, regionally distributed scientific support for drought policy capable of integrating local knowledge and informing the livelihood outcomes of critical importance to governments and rural communities.     

泰来县抗旱灌溉引水工程水土流失预测

采用类比法,结合泰来县抗旱灌溉引水工程的调查进行综合分析,从基本建设期水土流失量,林草恢复期水土流失量方面进行预测,得出该工程水土流失预测总量49835t,新增水土流失量25458t的结论。     

中国水土流失及其对旱涝灾害的影响

人口膨胀对土地的压力增长，导致水土流失面积扩大，土壤侵蚀量增多，目前我国水蚀面积已达１７９万平方公里，每年流失土壤５０亿吨。水土流失减薄土层，阻碍植被恢复，大大降低土地的蓄水库容，造成水文干旱和农业干旱；同时，河床淤积使河流泄洪能力降低，洪水水位抬高，加剧洪涝灾害的发展，在同样降雨情况下，洪涝灾情比以往增加１倍。对水土流失采取综合治理可有效地减轻水旱灾害。江西兴国通过十年的综合治理，使兴国县水旱灾害频率下降４８．８％，成灾面积减少５０．７％。     

海河流域近500年大旱大涝时空特征及趋势预测

作者选择记录年代较长、系统性较好、分布均匀的十八个站作为海河流域的代表站，分别统计了近５００年及每世纪、各年代大旱大涝的出现频数，探讨了它的时空分布特征。还根据天文、气候背景制作了１９９５～２０１０年旱涝趋势预测。研究表明，１９９５～２０１０年海河流域大致处于太阳活动２３周的黑子低值位相和第２４周的高值位相之间，同时又处在太阳黑子世纪周期的下降段。从全国旱涝型指数和北京地区旱涝等级变化曲线看，目前海河流域正处于持续下降期，未来将进入湿润多雨阶段     

用马尔可夫链模型预测宁南山区旱情

宁南山区干旱频繁,严重影响农业生产。根据固原气象站35年(1957～1991)雨量资料,应用马尔可失链模型预测了该区1992～1996年的雨量与旱情趋势。结果表明,今后五年将出现三年春夏旱、二年正常,秋季有四年正常、一年多雨;预测的1992年4～6月和6～9月的干旱等级值与实际完全相符。该模型预测结果有较高可信度,对该区农业生产有参考价值。     

干旱灾害的识别途径

干旱和洪水一样，都是对人类及其社会危害极大的自然灾害，但相对洪水灾害来讲，国内外对干旱灾害的研究均很薄弱。针对这种情况，本文系统地归纳总结了干旱灾害的识别方法，以便为干旱灾害的研究和治理提供帮助。     

Is aridity restricting deforestation and land uses in the South American Dry Chaco?

In this paper, we explored how aridity influences the regional deforestation and land-use patterns (i.e. crops/pastures) in South American Dry Chaco. To do this, we contrasted land use during last decade (2001–2012) with a spatially explicit aridity index, which we complemented with a crop water balance model. Land-use classifications were performed by considering the temporal variability of NDVI from MODIS satellites, showing that 40 and 60% of deforested land was assigned to crops and pastures, respectively. Results indicate that although the regional deforestation pattern was not associated with the aridity gradient, with drier areas similarly deforested as wetter areas, contrasting differences were observed in the use of this land, with crops mostly located (90%) in wetter areas and pastures evenly distributed across the whole aridity gradient. This research highlighted the strong effect of water limitations on the land-use option after deforestation and may help to set the basis for future land-use planning policies.     

1995年陕西特大干旱

1995年陕西气候异常，发生了历史上罕见的大旱．本文对这场大旱进行了详尽分析．陕西省1995年的干旱超过了建国以来最早的1962年，与本世纪以来最早的1929年相似。是陕西省近65a来的又一个特大于旱年．     

Responses of herbaceous mimosa (Mimosa strigillosa), a new reclamation species, to cyclic moisture stress

A greenhouse study was conducted to evaluate the response of herbaceous mimosa (Mimosa strigillosa) to six levels of cyclic soil moisture stresses in a 17-week period. The results showed that the cultivar continued to grow and the biomass continued to increase even when the soil moisture stress was as high as at the wilting point (1500 Kpa). Also, transpiration recovery rate was quick and values of root/shoot ratio were high when the plant was subject to the cyclic moisture stress condition. All these characteristics, along with strong rooting and spreading ability, suggest this legume as a promising drought hardiness species for reclamation purposes.     

中国东部干旱特征及其对策

本文阐述了帕默尔干旱指标的原理、优点及其计算方法。文中用济南和郑州两站的资料对帕默尔干旱指标进行了修正,建立了适合我国东部地区的干旱指标,并计算了我国东部地区150个站(1951.1～1980.12)的干旱指数值,分析了我国东部地区的干旱特征。根据其干旱普遍存在、持续期长和强度大的特点,提出了相应的干旱对策。