美欧中印“国家自主贡献”目标的力度和公平性评估

基于气候公平的不同原则,采用动态的衡量指标,建立了公平分配未来碳排放空间的综合性框架,计算了基数、平等、能力、责任和混合方案下2010~2100年全球累积碳排放配额的地区分布,并评估了美欧中印“国家自主贡献（Intended Nationally Determined Contribution,INDC）”目标的力度,提出了各国减排目标力度应当增加的程度.结果表明：美欧中印总体的INDC力度离实现2℃目标仍有差距,不同方案下的排放差距为8.0~9.6Gt CO₂,超出2030年2℃目标下全球排放的比例为20%~24%.在各自最为有利的方案下,中印能满足实现2℃目标的公平分配方案的低限要求.而在所有方案下美欧距离实现2℃目标的公平分配要求均有差距,需要进一步提高力度.公平指标的动态和静态衡量方法,以及历史责任计量起始年的选取,对公平分配的结果影响很大.     

基于代际公平的碳排放权分配研究

以1901~2005年作为历史碳排放分配时间段,从历史代际和代内公平的角度考虑,利用全球132个国家的人口、GDP和碳排放数据,通过基尼系数优化模型对全球132个国家的历史碳排放配额进行优化分配,同时对各国未来的碳排放权做了公平分配.研究结果表明,基于GDP和人口的各国历史碳排放配额Gini系数值均低于实际的Gini系数值,并且低于0.4的警戒值,获得综合考虑各国的GDP和人口的历史碳排放配额最优分配结果.对各国的历史碳排放的赤字量和剩余量分析表明,美国是历史碳排放赤字最多的国家,印度、中国是历史碳排放剩余最多国家;同时考虑各国的历史碳排放情况得到各国未来的碳排放权,其中中国、印度等国家人口最多,经济所占全球比例也较高,在未来能获得最多的碳排放权.     

Stack sampling for organic emissions

Along with increased activity in source sampling for organics, there have been many improvements in the methods of acquiring samples. Much has been learned about how best to proceed, and a number of potentially serious pitfalls have been discovered, characterized, and circumvented. Unfortunately, communication of all of this new technology has not always been effective.

This paper reviews some of the more important fundamental principles involved in stack sampling for organics, briefly describes and discusses recently developed equipment, and points out a few of the more serious pitfalls to be avoided. Extensive references are provided, many of which are often overlooked by newcomers to the field. The conclusion is reached that it is possible to consistently obtain high‐quality samples of organic materials from stationary source stacks, even though knowledge and caution are necessary.     

Accounting for Cadmium: Tracking Emissions of Cadmium From the Global Economy

This paper examines the flow of cadmium through the global economy, with the aim of quantifying emissions of cadmium into the environment as a result of anthropogenic activities. First, a materials balance methodology is presented as the most appropriate means of assessing cadmium emissions from a wide range of anthropogenic sources. This is then applied to the best available data, from a variety of sources, to arrive at estimated flows of cadmium. Results are presented for 10 geo-political world regions and for a range of economic activities including non-ferrous metals production, iron and steel production, combustion of fossil fuels, fertilizer manufacture and use, cement production and the manufacture, use and disposal of cadmium containing products. Initially, this analysis partitions the total flow of cadmium into three major categories: atmospheric emissions, water-borne effluents and solid or bulked waste arisings. the paper then suggests a probable further partition of the initial emissions into different environmental media.     

中国秸杆焚烧及民用燃煤棕色碳排放的初步研究

近年来的研究表明,在BC(黑碳)和OC(有机碳)之间,还存在着一种有弱吸光能力的OC,因大多显棕黄色而被称为BrC(brown carbon,棕色碳). 广泛存在的秸杆焚烧和冬季大量民用燃煤的使用,使国内BrC排放严重,但鲜见对其排放量的测算. 采用七波段黑碳仪(aethalometer)方法,对夏季小麦秸杆焚烧过程及冬季民用炉燃煤过程产生的烟气进行现场监测,根据BrC与BC的光谱关联性差别,分化出R_BrC/BC(总光学衰减中BrC和BC的相对贡献). 结果表明:麦秆焚烧和民用燃煤烟气的R_BrC/BC分别为1.754±0.278和0.183±0.142. 借助R_BrC/BC值,结合现有的BC排放清单(2000年),初步推算出中国民用燃煤和秸杆田间焚烧BrC的排放总量(以BC当量计,下同)为(270.6±101.6)Gg,接近同期BC排放量的一半;其中秸杆焚烧的BrC排放量为(175.4±27.8)Gg,约占二者总量的65%;民用燃煤的BrC排放量为(95.2±73.7)Gg,约占35%. 该研究结果可为更全面的BrC排放测算奠定基础,并为研究BrC的大气化学及辐射强迫提供依据.      

The social cost of carbon revisited

An estimate of the social cost of carbon (SCC) is crucial to climate policy. But how should we estimate the SCC? A common approach uses an integrated assessment model (IAM) to simulate time paths for the atmospheric CO₂ concentration, its impact on temperature, and resulting reductions in GDP. I have argued that IAMs have deficiencies that make them poorly suited for this job, but what is the alternative? I present an approach to estimating an average SCC, which I argue can be a useful guide for policy. I rely on a survey of experts to elicit opinions regarding (1) probabilities of alternative economic outcomes of climate change, but not the causes of those outcomes; and (2) the reduction in emissions required to avert an extreme outcome, i.e., a large climate-induced reduction in GDP. The average SCC is the ratio of the present value of lost GDP from an extreme outcome to the total emission reduction needed to avert that outcome. I discuss the survey instrument, explain how experts were identified, and present results. I obtain SCC estimates of $200/mt or higher, but the variation across experts is large. Trimming outliers and focusing on experts who expressed a high degree of confidence in their answers yields lower SCCs, $80 to $100/mt, but still well above the IAM-based estimates used by the U.S. government.     

生活垃圾无害化处理大气污染物排放清单

为全面评估中国大陆地区生活垃圾处理大气污染物排放状况,系统收集和整理全国31个省市基础统计信息,采取排放因子法建立了2016年中国大陆地区生活垃圾无害化处理大气污染物排放清单.结果表明,2016年,全国生活垃圾填埋处理排放气态污染物的CH₄、VOCs、NH₃、TSP、PM₁₀和PM_2.5总量分别是3472084.50、185117.10、66.45、54.94、25.99和3.92 t,焚烧处理排放气态污染物的CH₄、SO₂、NO_x、NH₃、VOCs、CO、TSP、PM₁₀、PM_2.5和BC总量分别是25389.10、6419.30、70923.84、221.36、435.33、3025.19、221.36、221.36、2.21和2.86 t.通过对固体废弃物处理源、大气污染物时空分布特征以及对各省市焚烧厂在生活垃圾无害化处理厂数量的占比分析,确定生活垃圾焚烧源和填埋源处理排放的气态污染物总量在2010~2016年期间呈现上升趋势,2016年生活填埋处理是我国最主要的垃圾处理方式,主要集中在中部和西部等人口密度适中和土地资源较多的地区,生活垃圾焚烧处理主要集中在长三角、珠三角和京津冀等地区的发达城市.     

Understand the local and regional contributions on air pollution from the view of human health impacts

• PM_2.5-related deaths were estimated to be 227 thousand in BTH & surrounding regions. • Local emissions contribute more to PM_2.5-related deaths than PM_2.5 concentration. • Local controls are underestimated if only considering its impacts on concentrations. • Rural residents suffer larger impacts of regional transport than urban residents. • Reducing regional transport benefits in mitigating environmental inequality. The source-receptor matrix of PM_2.5 concentration from local and regional sources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and surrounding provinces has been created in previous studies. However, because the spatial distribution of concentration does not necessarily match with that of the population, such concentration-based source-receptor matrix may not fully reflect the importance of pollutant control effectiveness in reducing the PM_2.5-related health impacts. To demonstrate that, we study the source-receptor matrix of the PM_2.5-related deaths instead, with inclusion of the spatial correlations between the concentrations and the population. The advanced source apportionment numerical model combined with the integrated exposure–response functions is used for BTH and surrounding regions in 2017. We observed that the relative contribution to PM_2.5-related deaths of local emissions was 0.75% to 20.77% larger than that of PM_2.5 concentrations. Such results address the importance of local emissions control for reducing health impacts of PM_2.5 particularly for local residents. Contribution of regional transport to PM_2.5-related deaths in rural area was 22% larger than that in urban area due to the spatial pattern of regional transport which was more related to the rural population. This resulted in an environmental inequality in the sense that people staying in rural area with access to less educational resources are subjected to higher impacts from regional transport as compared with their more resourceful and knowledgeable urban compatriots. An unexpected benefit from the multi-regional joint controls is suggested for its effectiveness in reducing the regional transport of PM_2.5 pollution thus mitigating the associated environmental inequality.     

Emission and life-cycle assessment of alternative-fuel buses: a case study of the Delaware Authority of Regional Transit

The Energy Policy Act of 1992 motivated transit agencies to utilize alternative-fuel transit buses in addition to their popular diesel buses. Transit agencies have planned to add a significant number of alternative-fuel buses to their current transit fleets. This study is to inform policy makers who may allocate public funds for alternative-fuel bus projects to make a smarter decision in this regard. For each of the eight alternative-fuel buses, technologies introduced by the ACT, fuel efficiency, life-cycle cost (LCC) and emission are estimated and compared with the available information for the ultralow-sulfur diesel (ULSD) fuel buses. A case study in the State of Delaware is presented to demonstrate how the proposed approaches can be employed to evaluate the relative importance of the most viable alternative-fuel transit buses according to the predefined set of criteria. The results show that buses propelled by hybrid-diesel engine have the least LCC and emissions and are the most suitable alternative for the ULSD buses in the short- and midterm.     

中原城市群国家干线公路SOA生成潜势估算

二次有机气溶胶（SOA）是大气污染的主要成分之一,估算汽车尾气所生成的SOA对交通大气污染治理具有重要意义.本文基于国家干线公路交通量调查数据,根据监测站点和代表路段长度建立了中原城市群干线路网线性参考系统,并以车流量为基础数据,采用排放系数法测算出中原城市群干线道路VOCs排放量,再根据气溶胶生成系数对SOA的生成潜势进行估算,并经核密度计算后转换为线性连续分布,进行交通SOA的空间定量分布研究.结果表明：①甲苯的SOA生成潜势最高,但1,4-二乙基苯的SOA生成能力最强,芳香烃的SOA生成能力总体高于烷烃;②中小型汽油客车是最大的SOA生成源,占SOA生成量的1/3左右,但SOA生成能力最强的是小型汽油货车;③汽油车的SOA生成能力高于柴油车,客车的SOA生成能力略微高于货车;④中原城市群的SOA排放强度具有明显的以郑州为中心的高强度聚集现象,汽油车的分布与总体相似,但柴油车的强度和聚集性明显下降,以郑州为中心,南北干线上的排放强度高于东西方向.