中国人口结构对碳排放量影响研究

从人口结构角度探讨碳排放问题,有利于正确判断和把握影响碳排放量的人口因素,有的放矢地制定碳减排政策,应对我国经济发展方式的转变有着重要的理论和现实意义.本文利用我国1995-2007年碳排放量、人口总数、人口的城市化率、老龄化率和反映人口消费结构的恩格尔系数第二产业从业人口比重等时间序列数据,运用协整理论、格兰杰因果检验和多元回归模型作为分析工具,对我国人口结构与碳排放量之间的关系做了实证分析.结果发现:①1995-2007年间,人口结构中的人口城市化率、人口的消费结构、第二产业从业人口比重对碳排放量均存在正向影响,而人口规模对碳排放量的影响在模型中却表现为负效应;②相对于人口规模,人口的结构特征对碳排放量的影响越来越大,其中人口的城市化率对碳排放量的正向影响最大,说明中国的碳排放量与城市化的进程存在着密切关系;③人口的老龄化对二氧化碳排放量具有负效应,人口老龄化的加快对长期碳排放有抑制作用,所以在未来实现碳减排会逐渐成为可能.最后,针对分析结果,探讨了未来我国的碳减排策略,以期能有效地控制人口因素对我国碳排放增长的影响.     

An Empirical Study on the Environmental Kuznets Curve for China’s Carbon Emissions:Based on Provincial Panel Data

Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory,the authors choose provincial panel data of China in 1990 2007 and adopt panel unit root and co-integration testing method to study whether there is Environmental Kuznets Curve for China’s carbon emissions.The research results show that:carbon emissions per capita of the eastern region and the central region of China fit into Environmental Kuznets Curve,but that of the western region does not.On this basis,the authors carry out scenario analysis on the occurrence time of the inflection point of carbon emissions per capita of different regions,and describe a specific time path.     

火电燃料消费过程对资源环境的影响评估

我国以化石能源为主要燃料的火电生产导致了严重的资源枯竭和环境污染问题,定量评估火电燃料消费对资源环境的影响是区域可持续发展研究的重要内容。在估算火电燃料燃烧及运输、生产过程中排放的主要大气污染物的基础上,利用成分法计算相应的生态足迹,定量评估火电燃料消费过程对资源环境的影响。结果表明：我国1 kW〖DK〗·h火电的燃料消费过程中排放的CO2、CH4、NOx、SO2、烟尘分别为107 kg、993×10-3 kg、646×10-3 kg、260×10-3 kg、202×10-2 kg;全国火电燃料消费占用的生态足迹由2000年的50 67444万hm2,增加到2007年的123 84208万hm2,年均增长1362％;CO2和NOx的生态足迹平均比重高达836％,是影响资源环境的主要因子,SO2、烟尘与CH4三者合计仅164%,对资源环境的冲击相对较小     

Identification of magnetic particulates in road dust accumulated on roadside snow using magnetic, geochemical and micro-morphological analyses

The aim of this study is to test the applicability of snow surveying in the collection and detailed characterization of vehicle-derived magnetic particles. Road dust extracted from snow, collected near a busy urban highway and a low traffic road in a rural environment (southern Finland), was studied using magnetic, geochemical and micro-morphological analyses. Significant differences in horizontal distribution of mass specific magnetic susceptibility (χ) were noticed for both roads. Multi-domain (MD) magnetite was identified as the primary magnetic mineral. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) analyses of road dust from both roads revealed: (1) angular-shaped particles (diameter ∼1-300 μm) mostly composed of Fe, Cr and Ni, derived from circulation of motor vehicles and (2) iron-rich spherules (d ∼ 2-70 μm). Tungsten-rich particles (d < 2 μm), derived from tyre stud abrasion were also identified. Additionally, a decreasing trend in χ and selected trace elements was observed with increasing distance from the road edge.     

Spectral estimation of global levels of atmospheric pollutants

Underlying levels of atmospheric pollutants, assumed to be governed by smoothing mechanisms due to atmospheric dispersion, can be estimated from global emissions source databases on greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting compounds. However, spatial data may be contaminated with noise or even missing or zero-valued at many locations. Therefore, a problem that arises is how to extract the underlying smooth levels. This paper sets out a structural spatial model that assumes data evolve across a global grid constrained by second-order smoothing restrictions. The frequency-domain approach is particularly suitable for global datasets, reduces the computational burden associated with two-dimensional models and avoids cumbersome zero-inflated skewed distributions. Confidence intervals of the underlying levels are also obtained. An application to the estimation of global levels of atmospheric pollutants from anthropogenic emissions illustrates the technique which may also be useful in the analysis of other environmental datasets of similar characteristics.     

Redistribution of free tropospheric chemical species over West Africa: radicals (OH and HO₂), peroxide (H₂O₂) and acids (HNO₃ and H₂SO₄)

The purpose of this paper is to study the redistribution of chemical species (OH, HO₂, H₂O₂, HNO₃ and H₂SO₄) over West Africa, where the cloud cover is ubiquitously present, and where deep convection often develops. In this area, because of these cloud systems, chemical species are redistributed by the ascending and descending flow, or leached if they are soluble. So, we carry out a mesoscale study using the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) coupled to a code of gas and aqueous chemistry (RAMS_Chemistry). It takes into account all processes under mesh. We examine several cases following the period (November and July), with inputs emissions (anthropogenic, biogenic and biomass burning). The radicals OH and HO₂ are an indicator of possibilities for chemical activity. They characterize the oxidizing power of the atmosphere and are very strong oxidants. The acids HNO₃ and H₂SO₄ are interesting in their transformation into nitrates and sulfates in precipitation. In November, when photochemistry is active during an event of biomass burning, concentrations of chemical species are higher than those of November in the absence of biomass burning. The concentrations of nitric acid double and sulfuric acid increases 70 times. In addition, the concentrations are even lower in July if there is a deep convection. Compared to measures of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA), the results and observations of radicals OH and HO₂ are the same order of magnitude. Emissions from biomass burning increase the concentrations of acid and peroxide, and a deep convection cloud allows the solubility and the washing out of species, reducing their concentration. Rainfalls play a major role in solubility and washing out acids, peroxides and radicals in this region.     

Potential for childhood lead poisoning in the inner cities of Australia due to exposure to lead in soil dust

This article presents evidence demonstrating that the historical use of leaded gasoline and lead (Pb) in exterior paints in Australia has contaminated urban soils in the older inner suburbs of large cities such as Sydney and Melbourne. While significant attention has been focused on Pb poisoning in mining and smelting towns in Australia, relatively little research has focused on exposure to Pb originating from inner-city soil dust and its potential for childhood Pb exposures. Due to a lack of systematic blood lead (PbB) screening and geochemical soil Pb mapping in the inner cities of Australia, the risks from environmental Pb exposure remain unconstrained within urban population centres.     

Variability of dust iron solubility in atmospheric waters: Investigation of the role of oxalate organic complexation

Atmospheric dust deposition is a major external iron source for remote surface ocean waters. Organic complexation is known to play a role in the dissolution of iron-containing minerals. In this paper, we present our study on the effect of oxalate on dust iron solubility in simulated rainwater. Our results reveal that the solubility of iron carried by analogs of different African dusts varies with the dust source. Our experiments indicate a positive linear correlation between iron solubility and oxalate concentration. Soluble iron (SFe) increases from 0.0025(±0.0005)% to 0.26(±0.01)% of total iron, considering all dust sources and with oxalate concentrations ranging from 0 to 8 μM. These results show that the observed variability of iron solubility in aerosols collected over the Atlantic Ocean is, at least partly, due to an increase in dust iron solubility, with the presence of oxalate complexation, rather than to the presence of more soluble anthropogenic iron. Considering the mineralogical composition of those particles, experiments with pure minerals (hematite, goethite and illite) were performed to study the dissolution process. We found that oxalate promotes the solubility of iron contained in clay and hence confirmed that more than 95% of SFe from soil dust is provided by clay (illite). This experimental work enables us to establish a parameterization of iron solubility in dust as a function of oxalate concentration and based on the individual iron solubility of pure iron-bearing minerals usually present in dust particles. Finally, our results emphasize that oxalate contributes to iron solubility on the same order of magnitude as the acid processes. Organic complexation appears to be a process that increases iron solubility and likely enhances the bioavailability of iron from dust.     

电除尘器如何满足低排放的研究

针对电除尘器能否达到低排放的种种疑惑,分析了近年来实测达到50mg／m^3（标态、干烟气,下同）及以下更低排放的电除尘器实际应用项目性能测试报告并进行深入研究。通过对中国动力煤的梳理分析,得出电除尘器时中国大多数煤种适应性较好,电除尘器能达到低排放、且在节能模式应用下实际能耗最低的基本结论,同时提出了电除尘器满足国家新排放标准的主要对策。     

Air pollutant concentrations near three Texas roadways, part II: Chemical characterization and transformation of pollutants

Spatial gradients of vehicular emitted air pollutants were measured in the vicinity of three roadways in the Austin, Texas area: (1) State Highway 71 (SH-71), a heavily traveled arterial highway dominated by passenger vehicles; (2) Interstate 35 (I-35), a limited access highway north of Austin in Georgetown; and (3) Farm to Market Road 973 (FM-973), a heavily traveled surface roadway with significant truck traffic. A mobile monitoring platform was used to characterize the gradients of CO and NO_x concentrations with increased distance from each roadway, while concentrations of carbonyls in the gas-phase and fine particulate matter mass and composition were measured at stationary sites upwind and at one (I-35 and FM-973) or two (SH-71) downwind sites. Regardless of roadway type or wind direction, concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) returned to background levels within a few hundred meters of the roadway. Under perpendicular wind conditions, CO, NO and NO_x concentrations decreased exponentially with increasing distance perpendicular to the roadways. The decay rate for NO was more than a factor of two greater than for CO, and it comprised a larger fraction of NO_x closer to the roadways than further downwind suggesting the potential significance of near roadway chemical processing as well as atmospheric dilution. Concentrations of most carbonyl species decreased with distance downwind of SH-71. However, concentrations of acetaldehyde and acrolein increased farther downwind of SH-71, suggesting chemical generation from the oxidation of primary vehicular emissions. The behavior of particle-bound organic species was complex and further investigation of the size-segregated chemical composition of particulate matter (PM) at increasing downwind distances from roadways is warranted. Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) mass concentrations, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), hopanes, and elemental carbon (EC) concentrations generally exhibited concentrations that decreased with distance downwind of SH-71. Concentrations of organic carbon (OC) increased from upwind concentrations immediately downwind of SH-71 and continued to increase further downwind from the roadway. This behavior may have primarily resulted from condensation of semi-volatile organic species emitted from vehicle sources with transport downwind of the roadway.