甲撑二苯基二异氰酸酯(MDI)生产过程中危险有害因素及对策措施

甲撑二苯基二异氰酸酯 (MDI)生产过程中涉及到了多种危险有害因素。笔者通过对国内现役MDI生产装置进行调研 ,同时结合国内外其他涉及光气生产厂家的情况 ,分析并指出了生产过程中可能出现的危险有害因素 ,从而提出了相应的对策措施     

太湖流域主要城市洪涝灾害生态风险评价

太湖流域有上海，苏州，无锡，常州，镇江，杭州，嘉兴，湖州八个大中城市，是我国产业最集中，工农业最发达的地区之一，但该地区洪涝灾害频繁，这不仅制约了流域中各城市经济的发展，还严重威胁到该地区城市的生存平衡，本文根据生存风险评价原理，结合太湖流域的自然特点，提出成因分析法的指标模型。并通过分析太湖流域八个大中城市的汛期降雨量和地形地貌因子对洪涝灾害生态风险的影响度，得出各个城市洪涝灾害的生态风险度，最后还根据各城市风险度的大小及其主导因素的不同，提出了如何管理洪涝灾害生态风险的建议。     

三论灾害研究的理论与实践

在作者分别于 1991年发表的《论灾害研究的理论与实践》和 1996年发表的《再论灾害研究的理论与实践》的基础上 ,评述了最近 6年来灾害科学研究的进展 ,提出了灾害科学的基本框架 ,进一步完善了“区域灾害系统论”的理论体系 ,提出了当前灾害科学的主要学术前沿问题。文章并就资源开发与灾情形成机理与动态变化过程进行了综合分析 ,阐述了区域灾害的形成过程 ,进一步从区域可持续发展的角度 ,就建设安全社区 (区域 )提出了“允许灾害风险水平”的区域发展对策。     

中国东南沿海重点城市台风危险性分析

中国东南沿海地区是中国经济最发达，人口最稠密的地区，同时也是世界上受台风影响最严重的地区之一。本文以上海经9个沿海重点为例，通过对《台风年鉴》数据的分析处理，提取了台风关键参数并进行了统计分析与建模；利用Monte Carlo抽样和成熟台风风场模型模拟，得到了极值风速序列，对年极值风速序列进行极值风速统计分析，得到了不同重现期和地貌的极值风速，结果与实测风速比较吻合。     

A comparative study of risk perception in small and large communities where chemical industries are present

Opinion polls were conducted to assess the level of risk perceived by the citizens in communities of different sizes where chemical industries were present. The aim of the study was to relate the risk perceived to variables such as the nature of risks, the specific information received regarding the industrial activity and the economic impact of this activity in the community.     

FLOOD STAGE FORECASTING WITH SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES1

ABSTRACT: Machine learning techniques are finding more and more applications in the field of forecasting. A novel regression technique, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the statistical learning theory is explored in this study. SVM is based on the principle of Structural Risk Minimization as opposed to the principle of Empirical Risk Minimization espoused by conventional regression techniques. The flood data at Dhaka, Bangladesh, are used in this study to demonstrate the forecasting capabilities of SVM. The result is compared with that of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based model for one‐lead day to seven‐lead day forecasting. The improvements in maximum predicted water level errors by SVM over ANN for four‐lead day to seven‐lead day are 9.6 cm, 22.6 cm, 4.9 cm and 15.7 cm, respectively. The result shows that the prediction accuracy of SVM is at least as good as and in some cases (particularly at higher lead days) actually better than that of ANN, yet it offers advantages over many of the limitations of ANN, for example in arriving at ANN's optimal network architecture and choosing useful training set. Thus, SVM appears to be a very promising prediction tool.     

An approach to integrate impact scoping with environmental impact assessment

Impact scoping is the process of identifying important issues of a proposal and focusing the environmental impact assessment (EIA) on the high-priority issues. Although impact scoping in one form or another has been inherent to EIA for some time, documentation of its development and discussion of refinements to impact scoping processes have not been forthcoming. This article traces the development of impact scoping through time and highlights the need for such processes in EIA. A focused environmental assessment (FEA) approach to impact scoping that is suitable for implementation in an EIA is presented here and advantages of its use are delineated. FEA is a three-staged process that encourages impact scoping through progressive steps including impact identification, assessment and management planning. FEA combines a suite of EIA methods including: issues matrices, impact hypotheses, valued ecosystem components, and stakeholder participation sessions to effectively integrate impact scoping with EIA.     

Environmental regulatory compliance on army lands: A case study

A “finding of no significant impact” (FONSI) resulting from an environmental assessment (EA) was reported by the US Army in June 1986 for the construction and utilization of a multipurpose range complex (MPRC) at the Pohakuloa Training Area, Hawaii. There was little public response, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service and state agencies were consulted and had few comments concerning the results of the botanical surveys used in the assessment. Construction of the $24 million project was begun in 1988. Near the end of construction in 1989 a lawsuit was filed to halt construction because an environmental impact statement (EIS) had not been done for the project, and the plaintiff thought that significant damage had occurred to several unusual ecosystems. Judgment was against the plaintiff and construction continued. An appeal was filed with the 9th Circuit Court. As MPRC construction was nearly complete, and on advice of Department of Justice lawyers, the Department of Army agreed to settle out of court. The settlement in part called for: (1) the plaintiff to drop the appeal and allow construction to be completed as scheduled, and (2) the Department of Army to prepare an EIS for the operation of the MPRC. A subsequent botanical survey for the EIS discovered one endangered plant species, four category 1 candidate plant species (taxa with sufficient data to support listing as endangered or threatened), three category 2 candidate plant species (taxa with some evidence of vulnerability but insufficient data to support listing at this time), one category 3a species (presumably extinct taxa), and possibly three undescribed species growing within the MPRC boundary. The MPRC case study is an excellent example of why the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) must be modified to require in-depth and thorough environmental surveys.     

Application of a GIS-based stream buffer generation model to environmental policy evaluation

In this article a GIS method is presented for riparian environmental buffer generation. It integrates a scientifically tested buffer width delineation model into a GIS framework. Using the generally available data sets, it determines buffer widths in terms of local physical conditions and expected effectiveness. Technical burdens of data management, computation, and result presentation are handled by the GIS. The case study in which the method was used to evaluate the stream buffer regulations in a North Carolina county demonstrates its capability as a decision support tool to facilitate environmental policy formulation and evaluation, and environmental dispute resolution.