Identifying future scenarios and their implications for transport policy

Scenario analysis is a technique that is increasingly being used as a way of identifying future policy options and issues in the long-term. This paper discusses the role of scenario analysis in policy development in relation to future transport policy. It discusses three key stages in scenario analysis: the identification of policy targets; the development of images of the future; and the construction of policy packages.     

Analysis of the ph in Europe during the period 1986–1997

The annual averages (1986–1997) of pH are analysed for the most important European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme stations in Europe. The first objective is to discover the different temporal patterns and trends for the pH. To do this, a cluster analysis is developed. The trends are analysed by linear regression for the annual averages. In general, the pH shows an increasing trend significant at 0.05 level and the annual change ranging from +0.01 to +0.05 pH‐units per year for the different clusters obtained. The second objective is to examine the spatial variability of pH in precipitation through the use of principal component analysis. Six statistically significant modes of variability are obtained for the pH which represent the 84.5% of the total variance.     

Why the Conservation of Forest Genetic Resources Has Not Worked

Abstract:  Genetic diversity is indispensable for long-term forest sustainability and is therefore mentioned in numerous binding and nonbinding political covenants calling for action. Nevertheless, there are significant obstacles to the conservation of forest genetic resources. We discuss hindrances to genetic conservation, mainly in Europe. We identified impediments by reviewing the literature and on the basis of the experiences of the authors in this field and their participation in related political processes. The impediments include (1) difficulties in assessing and monitoring genetic erosion and human impacts (e.g., by the lack of markers showing adaptive variation and the lack of record keeping on the use and transfer of forest-tree germplasm), (2) complexities of European national structures that make the development of a common strategy toward forest genetic conservation problematic, (3) lack of effective forest governance in many parts of the world, (4) the general unattractiveness of genes as flagships in raising public awareness, (5) lack of integration of genetic aspects into biodiversity conservation, and (6) the fact that scientists and politicians are often at cross-purposes. To overcome these impediments, forest geneticists and their peers in species conservation have to participate more actively in decision making. In doing so, they must be prepared to face challenges on 2 fronts: participating in political processes and the provision of significant research findings to ensure that decisions with respect to forest genetic diversity are politically implementable and effectively address targets.     

Base cation deposition in europe-part I. Model description, results and uncertainties

Deposition of base cations (Na⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, K⁺) in Europe was mapped for 1989 with a spatial resolution of 10 x 20 km using the so-called inferential modeling technique. Deposition fields resembled the geographic variability of sources, land-use and climate. Dry deposition constituted on average 45% of the total base cation deposition in Europe. Modeled deposition estimates compared reasonably well with deposition estimates derived from throughfall and bulk-precipitation measurements made at 174 sites scattered over Europe. Using error propagation, the random and systematic error in total deposition for an average grid cell of 10 x 20 km was estimated to equal 35–50% and 25–40%, respectively. Within individual grids a relatively large variability in deposition is expected.     

Trends in summer sulphate in Europe

A trend analysis of the sulphate concentration in Europe in the summer half-year was performed. Data from various measuring networks were analysed, but only stations with quality assured sampling methods and a record of more than 10 years were included in the study. 1978 served as the reference year for the trend, because in that year most stations started operation. The relatively dense network in Belgium provided the most valuable data, as evidenced by the fact that two sites at a distance of only 10 km apart correlated better than 95% over a month. The two sites also show a correlation of better than 90% over a season with two other stations at distances of 45 and 95 km. The relative decrease in summer-sulphate at the four stations in Belgium, as analysed by linear regression, was 3.3% per year which corresponds to an absolute decrease of 0.42 μgm⁻³ per year. In the Netherlands the average yearly decrease in summer-sulphate at two stations was 3.5% (−0.34 μgm⁻³). In other countries stations were further apart or only a single site wits in use, which limits the representativeness of the data. In northwestern Germany, a region with several monitoring stations, a yearly averaged decrease of 3.0% occurred. The lower absolute decrease (0.25 μgm⁻³) per year compared to that in the two neighbouring countries reflects the lower summer-time sulphate concentrations. In the remainder of Germany the average decrease was 1.6%. In South-Scandinavia the yearly relative decrease at two sites was 2.6% (0.13 μgm⁻³ absolute). There was no significant trend in the U.K. Al the Polish station the levels increased, it decreased at the Hungarian and Austrian station and remained constant at the Czechoslovakian site. Reasons for omission of the data from France from the trend analysis are discussed.     

欧洲的恶臭污染法规及测试技术进展

欧洲城市中人口密度的增加导致了严重的恶臭污染,几百年来,各种有关恶臭污染的法规相继出台。在过去的30年中,恶臭测试方法有所发展,人们不再轻信环境健康工作者的主观判断,而是将恶臭测试推向定量化的轨道。根据恶臭排放测试,扩散模式以及恶臭标准(以定量恶臭性质的影响研究为基础,确定恶臭污染的可忍受程度),荷兰率先推动了恶臭量化管理趋势。恶臭标准根据各行业的恶臭污染的具体程度制定。嗅觉计测试臭气浓度是一项可靠的技术,目前已经写入欧洲标准(EN13725:2003),将嗅觉计测试法和日本的三点式比较臭袋法进行比较,发现结果具有显著的一致性。嗅辨员的严格筛选也是促成其一致性的关键因素。