Identifying future scenarios and their implications for transport policy

Scenario analysis is a technique that is increasingly being used as a way of identifying future policy options and issues in the long-term. This paper discusses the role of scenario analysis in policy development in relation to future transport policy. It discusses three key stages in scenario analysis: the identification of policy targets; the development of images of the future; and the construction of policy packages.     

The division of Europe into regions with similar potential effectiveness and environmental consequences of pesticide application based on expert inclusive research

A division of Europe into regions with similar climate and soil conditions, assuming similar pesticide effectiveness and environmental effects of their application, was developed by a combination of statistical cluster analysis and expert involvement for identifying clustering variables and weighing their importance. The experts identified 15 variables representing climatic, soil and crop structure data and weighted them. In order to maximally simplify the administrative work with pesticide registration resulting from the division of Europe into zones, the additional criteria in the procedure were: the zoning follows existing administrative borders, country divisions by zone boundaries are limited, and situations where a zone consists of parts separated by another zone are avoided. The results of the analyses were compared with the applicable EPPO classification and visualized on maps. The highest similarity was observed in the southern Mediterranean zone, the layout of which differed by only a few regions. The Alpine part, having specific conditions, was not distinguished among the EPPO zones. Our study very clearly delineated the Central European part, having a climate with continental influence, which is distributed among other zones in the EPPO classification.     

Sustainability： A view from the wind-eroded field

This article explores the assessment of sustainability in fields subject to wind erosion. In the first part, simple sustainability audits are examined, as of soil depth and nutrients. Direct measurement of these characteristics has many problems, largely because of huge variability in space and time at all scales. Modelling still has its problems, but it may be possible to overcome many of them soon. It is true that wind erosion preferentially removes soil nutrients, but there are imponderables even here. The nutrient balance in many of these soils includes considerable input from dust. In West Africa, it has been shown that the amounts of calcium and potassium that are added in dust are sufficient to fertilize dispersed crops. In mildly acidic sandy soils, such as those found on the widespread palaeo- aeolian deposits, much of the phosphorus is fixed and unavailable to plants by the time it is removed by wind erosion, so that erosion has no added downside. Most of the nutrients carried by dust have been shown to travel close to the ground （even when they are attached to dust-sized particles）, and so are trapped in nearby fallow strips, and are thus not lost to the farming system. Second, the sustalnabillty of a whole semi-arid farming system is explored. Wind erosion in semi-arid areas （like China, the Sahel and Norflawestern Europe） generally takes place on aeolian deposits of the recent geological past. Most of these soils are deep enough to withstand centuries of wind erosion before they are totally lost to production, and some of these soils have greater fertility at greater depth （so that wind erosion may even improve the soil）. Finally some remarks are made about environmental change in relation to sustainability.     

欧洲酸雨控制历程及效果综合评述

在分析大量文献资料的基础上,综合评述了欧洲酸雨发展和控制的主要历程. 20世纪70年代以来,欧洲酸雨控制主要经历了EMEP建立与达成共识,CLRTAP公约形成与实施平均减排方针,基于临界负荷与生态敏感性制定减排策略,以及多污染物协同控制与追求多重环境效应等4个发展阶段,并取得了显著的控制效果. 1980—2007年,欧洲硫排放减少了84%,NO_x排放减少了37%;大气中ρ(SO₂)从10.32 μg/m3降至1.26 μg/m3,ρ(NO₂)从10.38 μg/m3降至7.15 μg/m3;欧洲降水酸度呈不断下降的趋势. 最后,基于欧洲酸雨控制先进经验的分析,结合实际情况提出了未来我国酸雨控制建议.      

Fertility Intentions and Risk Management: Exploring the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe During Transition

Between 1985 and 1995, fertility in Eastern Europe declined from 2.2 children per woman to merely 1.5 on region-average. Previous research has emphasized mainly the economic turmoil during transition or the influx of new ideas regarding fertility and family relations. This article suggests that applying a risk management perspective on fertility patterns may put additional light on the reasons behind the fertility decline in post-communist Europe. The complexity of modern social systems has made people increasingly dependent on the state for risk evaluation and risk management. The article formulates the hypothesis that transition itself disrupted the mental models that helped people to navigate among the risks associated to having and raising children. Left to their own devices, women in Eastern Europe became more inclined to postpone childbirth or discard this option altogether.     

Developing spatially stratified N(2)O emission factors for Europe

We investigate the possibility to replace the – so-called – Tier 1 IPCC approach to estimate soil N₂O emissions with stratified emissions factors that take into account both N-input and the spatial variability of the environmental conditions within the countries of the European Union, using the DNDC-Europe model. Spatial variability in model simulations is high and corresponds to the variability reported in literature for field data. Our results indicate that (a) much of the observed variability in N₂O fluxes reflects the response of soils to external conditions, (b) it is likely that national inventories tend to overestimate the uncertainties in their estimated direct N₂O emissions from arable soils; (c) on average over Europe, the fertilizer-induced emissions (FIE) coincide with the IPCC factors, but they display large spatial variations. Therefore, at scales of individual countries or smaller, a stratified approach considering fertilizer type, soil characteristics and climatic parameters is preferable.     

Analysis of the ph in Europe during the period 1986–1997

The annual averages (1986–1997) of pH are analysed for the most important European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme stations in Europe. The first objective is to discover the different temporal patterns and trends for the pH. To do this, a cluster analysis is developed. The trends are analysed by linear regression for the annual averages. In general, the pH shows an increasing trend significant at 0.05 level and the annual change ranging from +0.01 to +0.05 pH‐units per year for the different clusters obtained. The second objective is to examine the spatial variability of pH in precipitation through the use of principal component analysis. Six statistically significant modes of variability are obtained for the pH which represent the 84.5% of the total variance.     

Water protection against pollution

Science-policy integration is one of the many complex challenges that scientific and policy-making communities are facing. It involves knowledge sharing and exchanges among a wide range of disciplines and actors. In many instances, the lack of proper communication and of a coordination mechanism leads to research outputs not being used or simply known by policy-makers, and to policy research needs not being communicated to the scientific communities in a timely fashion. This paper discusses the integration of scientific and technological progress into the policy-making and implementation process, with emphasis on water policies. It highlights the need and complexity of developing a knowledge-based approach which would enable to lead to an operational science-policy interface linked to WISE (Water Information System for Europe), including the newly developed WISERTD webportal (). The views expressed in this paper are purely those of the author and do not in any circumstances reflect an official position of the European Commission.     

Analyzing the safety impact of longer and heavier vehicles circulating in the European market

Introduction: The European Union (EU) has developed different strategies to internalize the costs of excessive motor traffic in the road freight transport sector. One of these is a relaxation of restrictions on the size and load capacity of trucks that circulate between member States and a proposal has been made for Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) to be allowed to circulate across borders. LHVs are the so-called “megatrucks” (i.e., trucks with a length of 25 meters and a weight of 60 tonnes). Megatrucks have allowed to circulate for decades in some European countries such as Norway, Finland, and Sweden, world leaders in traffic accident prevention, although the impact that cross-border traffic would have on road safety is still unknown. Methods: This article provides an econometric analysis of the potential impact on road safety of allowing the circulation of “megatrucks” throughout the EU. Results: The findings show that countries that currently allow megatrucks to circulate present lower traffic accident and fatality levels, on average. Conclusions: The circulation of this type of vehicle is only advisable in countries where there is a certain degree of maturity and demonstrated achievements in the field of road safety. Practical applications: European countries that have allowed megatruck circulation obtaining better road safety outcomes in terms of accidents, although the accident lethality rate seems to be higher. Consequently, introducing megatruck circulation requires a prior proper preparation and examination.