An assessment methodology for successional systems. I. Null models and the regulatory framework

Standard procedures for evaluating environmental impact involve comparison between before and after conditions or scenarios or between treatment and control site pairs. In many cases, however, endogenous directional change (natural succession) is expected to occur at a significant rate over the period of concern, particularly for manmade systems such as impoundments. Static evaluations do not provide an adequate approach to such problems. A new evaluation frame is proposed. Nominal system behavior over time is characterized by a stochastic envelope around a nominal trajectory. We show that both the state variance and the sampling variance can change over time. In this context, environmental regulations can be framed as constraints, targets, or conformance to ideal trajectories. Statistical tests for determining noncompliance are explored relative to process variance, sample error, and sample size. Criteria are elucidated for choosing properties to monitor, sample size, and sampling interval.     

A model testing study for the transfer of radioactivity to fruit

This paper compares predictions of the foodchain model SPADE with experimental data for the transfer of (134)Cs and (85)Sr to strawberry plants following acute foliar and soil contamination. The transfer pathways considered in this exercise included direct deposition to fruit, leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-leaf and soil-to-fruit transfers. Following foliar contamination, the difference between predicted and measured radionuclide activity values varied between a factor of 0.5-10 for fruit and 4.5-7 for leaf. Following soil contamination, the difference between predicted and measured values varied between a factor of 3-74 for fruit and 32-44 for leaf. In all cases the difference between measured and predicted values was smaller for (85)Sr than (134)Cs. Measured and predicted activities were higher for leaf than fruit. Both measured and predicted (134)Cs concentrations in fruit and leaf are higher when deposition occurs at ripening than at anthesis. These results confirm the need for more data on fruit, even for Cs and Sr, to support models in predicting the transfer of radionuclides to fruit crops. Ongoing research projects funded by the UK Food Standards Agency aim to provide some data on radionuclide transfer to herbaceous, shrub and tree fruits, which will help improve radiological assessment models in order to provide better protection for consumers.     

The social and ecological determinants of common pool resource sustainability

We study a dynamic common pool resource game in which current resource stock depends on resource extraction in the previous period. Our model shows that for a sufficiently high regrowth rate, there is no commons dilemma: the resource will be preserved indefinitely in equilibrium. Lower growth rates lead to depletion. Laboratory tests of the model indicate that favorable ecological characteristics are necessary but insufficient to encourage effective CPR governance. Before the game, we elicit individual willingness to follow a costly rule. Only the presence of enough rule-followers preserves the resource given favorable ecological conditions.     

Bringing the Heat Home: Television Spots about Local Impacts Reduce Global Warming Denialism

ABSTRACT

Efforts to educate the general public about global warming and the potential policy solutions that could mitigate its effects have relied on the diffusion of facts. But, cognitive scientists have documented that psychologically distant events like global warming elicit less concern and motivation to act relative to immediate, proximal and certain events. This paper documents a quasi-experiment that tested the effect on attitudes of a television campaign that emphasized the temporally, geographically and socially proximal impacts of global warming on the ecosystems and business activity of a historically conservative area of the United States. The campaign aired on one cable provider. Subscribers of that and of competing providers in the same zip-codes were polled after the campaign. Respondents exposed to the campaign were more likely to believe that global warming is happening, to accept the scientific consensus, to be more concerned about impacts and more supportive of policy solutions.     

以可持续发展理论指导社会发展综合实验区的实践

社会发展综合实验区中中国可持续发展战略的实验基地，本文对实验区如何按可持续发展原则，结合当地的人口、资源、环境状况，制宁长远的可持续发展的生态规划做了较系统的论述。     

Investigation of various physicochemical and environmental parameter influence on pesticide sorption to ditch bed substratum by means of experimental design

Diffuse pollution by pesticide applied in rural catchments may contribute to alter water quality. Besides actions relative to the way the substances are introduced into the environment, it is also possible to limit the contamination by interfering on their transfer pathways from fields to the main river network. Especially, interface areas such as buffer strips or small ditches may play a major part in pesticide diffuse pollution decrease. In ditches a great variety of materials may act as sorbents for organic contaminants: grass, leaves, wood debris or sediments. In this study, laboratory experiments were designed to determine sorption characteristics for three herbicides with different physicochemical properties on sediment and leaves in decay commonly found in agricultural ditches. Sorption capacities were assessed for the herbicides isoproturon, diuron and diflufenican.

Experimental design was carried out to investigate the effects of five parameters on herbicide sorption on sediment and dead leaves. These parameters have been chosen according to parallel field experiment needs. Thus, the influence of initial sorbent moisture, herbicide form, i.e. active substance or commercial formulation, water quality (tap or natural ditch water), bromide ions (used as conservative tracers) and solid/liquid ratio have been tested. Within the parameters investigated, pesticide formulation and solid/liquid ratio were the most important parameters affecting pesticide sorption on both ditch materials.     

变坡度情况下森林地表上坡火行为若干特征的实验研究

应用自行研制的“多坡段固相材料火蔓延实验台”，模拟森林地表火的蔓延过程，对变坡度情况下森林地表上坡火行为规律进行了实验研究。研究发现，上坡火火焰随坡度的变化有三种火焰类型，即小坡度的缓慢燃烧，随坡度增加的火焰的抖动以及大坡度时的贴壁剧烈燃烧。     

Experimental and natural changes in the peacock's (Pavo cristatus) train can affect mating success

Petrie et al. (1991) demonstrated a correlation between the degree of elaboration of peacocks' trains and their mating success, and also showed that this correlation occurred because females preferred to mate with the male that had the most elaborate train of those sampled on the lek. Although these data suggest that female choice is responsible for non-random mating in this species, they do not conclusively show that train morphology is the cue that females respond to, because they do not rule out the possible influence of another unidentified variable which is correlated with train elaboration. This paper presents an experimental test of the importance of the peacock's train in determining male mating success. If the number or arrangement of eye-spots in the peacock's train influences mating success, then changing the number of eye-spots should change mating success. This prediction was tested in an experiment where the trains of male peafowl (Pavo cristatus) were manipulated by removing a number of eye-spots between mating seasons. Peacocks with eye-spots removed showed a significant decline in mating success between seasons compared with a control group. This result, together with the observational data, supports the hypothesis that the peacock's train has evolved, at least in part, as a result of female choice.     

Development of a continuously stirred flow cell for investigating sorption mass transfer

This paper introduces a new reversible-flow design for a continuously stirred reactor used to study sorption mass transfer in soil and solvent systems. The stirred reactor has potential advantages over conventional packed column or batch reactors because it isolates intraparticle sorption rate limitations from advective-dispersive transport, yet allows changes to flux through the reactor for analysis of sorption kinetics under dynamic conditions. Previously, stirred reactors have often failed due to clogging of sediment on the effluent frit. The reverse-flow backwashing design allows longer life and higher confidence in maintaining mixed conditions than previous designs. Mass transfer 'rate coefficients estimated from stirred and column experiments are compared; both techniques produced results consistent with a published correlation. The data also show that fitted sorption mass transfer coefficients can be strongly dependent on the choice of equilibrium partition coefficient (i.e. batch or first-moment derived values), and that the conventional two-site sorption kinetics model fails to accurately predict sorption mass transfer in the presence of changing solvent velocity through the reactor.     

Experimental study on detonation flame penetrating through flame arrester

In-line detonation flame arresters are important safety apparatus to prevent group tank fires caused by the spreading of fire through vapor connection lines. In this study, a DN50 experimental apparatus aimed at the detonation flame penetration characteristics and failure mechanisms in a flame arrester was set up, and a series of experiments were carried out with 6.6% C2H4 and air mixture. Pressure, and velocity of flame penetrating through flame arrester housing and filters were analyzed. Experimental results showed that the attenuation of pressure and velocity was proportional to the thickness of the filters. Two failure modes of the fire-extinguishing process in the flame arrester were captured directly with a high-speed camera. In Mode I, the detonation flame could go straight through the flame arrester filters when the filters were too thin. In Mode II, when the filters were not sufficiently thick, the remained shock wave pressure of detonation flame was still several times of the initial pressure and could rise sharply at the downstream contraction section, resulting in that the flammable gas at the downstream transition section could be compressed and reignited even the flame had been extinguished by filters. These conclusions are helpful to reveal the nature of failure modes of fire-extinguishing process and design flame arresters with high fire-resisting performance by structure improved.