Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.     

DEVELOPMENT OF A BASIN GEOMORPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM USING A TIN-DEM DATA STRUCTURE1

ABSTRACT: To make a distributed rainfall-runoff model, it is very important to build a model of topographic surface of a basin which takes account of the direction of water flow. In this paper, a geographic information system in hydrologic modeling, the BGIS (Basin Geomorphic Information Systems) are presented for modeling a river basin using a TIN-DEM (Triangulated Irregular Network - Digital Elevation Model) data structure. The BGIS have two core systems, which are the TIN-DEM generating system and the topographic analysis system. In the TIN-DEM generating system, landscapes are modeled as a set of contiguous non-overlapping terangular facets whose vertices are made up of points on a regular grid DEM and on river segments. These triangular facets are subdivided, if needed, so that each of them has only one side through which water flows out. The TIN-DEM generating system is made up of four modules, (1) a module for generating triangles from a grid DEM, (2) a module for getting rid of pits, (3) a module for joining discontinuous valley segments to a channel network, (4) a module for subdividing triangular facets. In the topographic analysis system, using datasets processed with the TIN-DEM generating system, a watershed source area for any segments in a stream network are delineated automatically, and topographic attributes of slopes, aspects, flow path lengths and upslope contributing areas are computed.     

THE SENSITWITY OF NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STREAMFLOW TO CLIMATE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of streamflow to climate change was investigated in the American, Carson, and Truckee River Basins, California and Nevada. Nine gaging stations were used to represent streamflow in the basins. Annual models were developed by regressing 1961–1991 streamflow data on temperature and precipitation. Climate-change scenarios were used as inputs to the models to determine streamflow sensitivities. Climate-change scenarios were generated from historical time series by modifying mean temperatures by a range of +4°C to—4°C and total precipitation by a range of +25 percent to -25 percent. Results show that streamflow on the warmer, lower west side of the Sierra Nevada generally is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes than is streamflow on the colder, higher east side. A 2°C rise in temperature and a 25-percent decrease in precipitation results in stream-flow decreases of 56 percent on the American River and 25 percent on the Carson River. A 2°C decline in temperature and a 25-percent increase in precipitation results in streamflow increases of 102 percent on the American River and 22 percent on the Carson River.     

A Multilevel Model of the Impact of Farm‐Level Best Management Practices on Phosphorus Runoff1

Abstract: Multilevel or hierarchical models have been applied for a number of years in the social sciences but only relatively recently in the environmental sciences. These models can be developed in either a frequentist or Bayesian context and have similarities to other methods such as empirical Bayes analysis and random coefficients regression. In essence, multilevel models take advantage of the hierarchical structure that exists in many multivariate datasets; for example, water quality measurements may be taken from individual lakes, lakes are located in various climatic zones, lakes may be natural or man‐made, and so on. The groups, or levels, may effectively yield different responses or behaviors (e.g., nutrient load response in lakes) that often make retaining group membership more effective when developing a predictive model than when working with either all of the data together or working separately with the individuals. Here, we develop a multilevel model of the impact of farm level best management practices (BMPs) on phosphorus runoff. The result of this research is a model with parameters which vary with key practice categories and thus may be used to evaluate the effectiveness of these practices on phosphorus runoff. For example, it was found that the effect of fertilizer application rate on farm‐scale phosphorus loss is a function of the application method, the hydrologic soil group, and the land use (crop type). Further, results indicate that the most effective method for controlling fertilizer loss is through soil injection. In summary, the resultant multilevel model can be used to estimate phosphorus loss from farms and hence serve as a useful tool for BMP selection.     

Virtues of simple hydro-economic optimization: Baja California, Mexico

This paper uses simple hydro-economic optimization to investigate a wide range of regional water system management options for northern Baja California, Mexico. Hydro-economic optimization models, even with parsimonious model formulations, enable investigation of promising water management portfolios for supplying water to agricultural, environmental and urban users. CALVIN, a generalized hydro-economic model, is used in a case study of Baja California. This drought-prone region faces significant challenges to supply water to agriculture and its fast growing border cities. Water management portfolios include water markets, wastewater reuse, seawater desalination and infrastructure expansions. Water markets provide the flexibility to meet future urban demands; however conveyance capacity limits their use. Wastewater reuse and conveyance expansions are economically promising. At current costs desalination is currently uneconomical for Baja California compared to other alternatives. Even simple hydro-economic models suggest ways to increase efficiency of water management in water scarce areas, and provide an economic basis for evaluating long-term water management solutions.     

Kinetics of carbon dioxide absorption into mixed aqueous solutions of MDEA and MEA using a laminar jet apparatus and a numerically solved 2D absorption rate/kinetics model

New comprehensive numerically solved 1D and 2D absorption rate/kinetics models have been developed, for the first time, to interpret the experimental kinetic data obtained with a laminar jet apparatus for the absorption of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in CO₂ loaded mixed solutions of mixed amine system of methyldiethanolamine (MDEA) and monoethanolamine (MEA). Three MDEA/MEA weight ratios ranging from 27/03 to 23/07, over a concentration range of 2.316–1.996 kmol/m³ for MDEA and of 0.490–1.147 kmol/m³ for MEA were studied. The models take into account the coupling between chemical equilibrium, mass transfer, and the chemical kinetics of all possible chemical reactions involved in the CO₂ reaction with MDEA/MEA solvent. The partial differential equations of the 1D model were solved by two numerical techniques; the finite difference method (FDM) based on in-house coded Barakat–Clark scheme and the finite element method (FEM) based on COMSOL software. The FEM comprehensive model was then used to solve the set of partial differential equations in the 2D cylindrical coordinate system setting. Both FDM and FEM produced very accurate results for both the 1D and 2D models, which were much better than our previously published simplified model. The reaction rate constant obtained for MEA blended into MDEA at 298–333 K was k_MEA = 5.127 × 10⁸ exp(−3373.8/T). In addition, the 2D model, for the first time, has provided the concentration profiles of all the species in both the radial and axial directions of the laminar jet, thereby enabling an understanding of the correct sequence in which the reaction steps involved in the reactive absorption of CO₂ in aqueous mixed amines occur.     

Evolving Expectations of Dam Removal Outcomes: Downstream Geomorphic Effects Following Removal of a Small,Gravel‐Filled Dam1

Kibler, Kelly, Desiree Tullos, and Mathias Kondolf, 2011. Evolving Expectations of Dam Removal Outcomes: Downstream Geomorphic Effects Following Removal of a Small, Gravel‐Filled Dam. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐16. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00523.x Abstract: Dam removal is a promising river restoration technique, particularly for the vast number of rivers impounded by small dams that no longer fulfill their intended function. As the decommissioning of small dams becomes increasingly commonplace in the future, it is essential that decisions regarding how and when to remove these structures are informed by appropriate conceptual ideas outlining potential outcomes. To refine predictions, it is necessary to utilize information from ongoing dam removal monitoring to evolve predictive tools, including conceptual models. Following removal of the Brownsville Dam from the Calapooia River, Oregon, aquatic habitats directly below the dam became more heterogeneous over the short term, whereas changes further downstream were virtually undetectable. One year after dam removal, substrates of bars and riffles within 400 m downstream of the dam coarsened and a dominance of gravel and cobble sediments replaced previously hardpan substrate. New bars formed and existing bars grew such that bar area and volume increased substantially, and a pool‐riffle structure formed where plane‐bed glide formations had previously dominated. As the Brownsville Dam stored coarse rather than fine sediments, outcomes following removal differ from results of many prior dam removal studies. Therefore, we propose a refined conceptual model describing downstream geomorphic processes following small dam removal when upstream fill is dominated by coarse sediments.     

Factors Affecting Stream Nutrient Loads: A Synthesis of Regional SPARROW Model Results for the Continental United States1

Preston, Stephen D., Richard B. Alexander, Gregory E. Schwarz, and Charles G. Crawford, 2011. Factors Affecting Stream Nutrient Loads: A Synthesis of Regional SPARROW Model Results for the Continental United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):891‐915. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00577.x Abstract: We compared the results of 12 recently calibrated regional SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) models covering most of the continental United States to evaluate the consistency and regional differences in factors affecting stream nutrient loads. The models – 6 for total nitrogen and 6 for total phosphorus – all provide similar levels of prediction accuracy, but those for major river basins in the eastern half of the country were somewhat more accurate. The models simulate long‐term mean annual stream nutrient loads as a function of a wide range of known sources and climatic (precipitation, temperature), landscape (e.g., soils, geology), and aquatic factors affecting nutrient fate and transport. The results confirm the dominant effects of urban and agricultural sources on stream nutrient loads nationally and regionally, but reveal considerable spatial variability in the specific types of sources that control water quality. These include regional differences in the relative importance of different types of urban (municipal and industrial point vs. diffuse urban runoff) and agriculture (crop cultivation vs. animal waste) sources, as well as the effects of atmospheric deposition, mining, and background (e.g., soil phosphorus) sources on stream nutrients. Overall, we found that the SPARROW model results provide a consistent set of information for identifying the major sources and environmental factors affecting nutrient fate and transport in United States watersheds at regional and subregional scales.     

Source and Delivery of Nutrients to Receiving Waters in the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic Regions of the United States1

Moore, Richard B., Craig M. Johnston, Richard A. Smith, and Bryan Milstead, 2011. Source and Delivery of Nutrients to Receiving Waters in the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic Regions of the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):965‐990. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00582.x Abstract: This study investigates nutrient sources and transport to receiving waters, in order to provide spatially detailed information to aid water‐resources managers concerned with eutrophication and nutrient management strategies. SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nutrient models were developed for the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic (NE US) regions of the United States to represent source conditions for the year 2002. The model developed to examine the source and delivery of nitrogen to the estuaries of nine large rivers along the NE US Seaboard indicated that agricultural sources contribute the largest percentage (37%) of the total nitrogen load delivered to the estuaries. Point sources account for 28% while atmospheric deposition accounts for 20%. A second SPARROW model was used to examine the sources and delivery of phosphorus to lakes and reservoirs throughout the NE US. The greatest attenuation of phosphorus occurred in lakes that were large relative to the size of their watershed. Model results show that, within the NE US, aquatic decay of nutrients is quite limited on an annual basis and that we especially cannot rely on natural attenuation to remove nutrients within the larger rivers nor within lakes with large watersheds relative to the size of the lake.     

Identification and quantification of the hydrological impacts of imperviousness in urban catchments: a review

Urbanisation produces numerous changes in the natural environments it replaces. The impacts include habitat fragmentation and changes to both the quality and quantity of the stormwater runoff, and result in changes to hydrological systems. This review integrates research in relatively diverse areas to examine how the impacts of urban imperviousness on hydrological systems can be quantified and modelled. It examines the nature of reported impacts of urbanisation on hydrological systems over four decades, including the effects of changes in imperviousness within catchments, and some inconsistencies in studies of the impacts of urbanisation. The distribution of imperviousness within urban areas is important in understanding the impacts of urbanisation and quantification requires detailed characterisation of urban areas. As a result most mapping of urban areas uses remote sensing techniques and this review examines a range of techniques using medium and high resolution imagery, including spectral unmixing. The third section examines the ways in which scientists and hydrological and environmental engineers model and quantify water flows in urban areas, the nature of hydrological models and methods for their calibration. The final section examines additional factors which influence the impact of impervious surfaces and some uncertainties that exist in current knowledge.