潮汐河网调水工程的环境与经济效益分析——以北江、西江调水工程为例

本文针对潮汐河网的基本特点,提出了运用非恒定流水环境实时数学模型和“影子工程法"对一系列引水方案的环境与经济效益进行定量的预测、分析和比较。该方法对潮汐河网地区水务工程的环境与费用效益分析研究具有普遍的参考意义。文中的算例为广州市市政洪水与污水整治战略决策提供了科学的依据。      

潮汐河网可降解有机物降解系数研究

潮汐河网具有其独特的水物理及水化学特性。本文采用珠江三角洲河网区域20个水样的BOD降解实验数据,并用BOD反应一级动力学方程进行数据拟合,结果表明,潮汐河网水体BOD降解过程的延滞期消失,远离污染源河段河水的BOD降解过程两阶段区分不明显,降解过程符合BOD反应一级动力学方程。此外,潮汐河网河水的降解系数随时间的变化过程是随机的。      

BP及RBF人工神经元网络对臭氧生物活性炭水处理系统建模的比较

运用BP和RBF人工神经元网络建立臭氧生物活性炭系统模型,考察了两个网络对水处理系统建模的适应性。研究表明,BP和RBF人工神经元网络的臭氧生物活性炭系统模型准确地描述了系统影响因素的关系,可以求出系统中臭氧的经济投量;用BP人工神经元网络建立水处理系统模型,泛化能力好,但逼近速度较慢;运用RBF人工神经元网络建模,泛化能力较差,但逼近速度快。该项研究克服了运用传统方法建模的不足,为实现水处理系统的优化设计提供了可行的途径。     

Optimal water quality monitoring network design for river systems

Typical tasks of a river monitoring network design include the selection of the water quality parameters, selection of sampling and measurement methods for these parameters, identification of the locations of sampling stations and determination of the sampling frequencies. These primary design considerations may require a variety of objectives, constraints and solutions. In this study we focus on the optimal river water quality monitoring network design aspect of the overall monitoring program and propose a novel methodology for the analysis of this problem. In the proposed analysis, the locations of sampling sites are determined such that the contaminant detection time is minimized for the river network while achieving maximum reliability for the monitoring system performance. Altamaha river system in the State of Georgia, USA is chosen as an example to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results show that the proposed model can be effectively used for the optimal design of monitoring networks in river systems.     

The social context of childcare practices and child malnutrition in Niger's recent food crisis

In 2004–05, Niger suffered a food crisis during which global attention focused on high levels of acute malnutrition among children. In response, decentralised emergency nutrition programmes were introduced into much of southern Niger. Child malnutrition, however, is a chronic problem and its links with food production and household food security are complex. This qualitative, anthropological study investigates pathways by which children are rendered vulnerable in the context of a nutritional 'emergency'. It focuses on household-level decisions that determine resource allocation and childcare practices in order to explain why practices apparently detrimental to children's health persist. Risk aversion, the need to maintain self-identity and status, and constrained decision making result in a failure to invest extra necessary resources ingrowth-faltering children. Understanding and responding to the social context of child malnutrition will help humanitarian workers to integrate their efforts more effectively with longer-term development programmes aimed at improving livelihood security.     

基于灰色BP网络的火灾事故预测

将BP网络模型与灰色系统预测方法相结合,利用人工神经网络对GM(1,1)模型进行残差修正,建立了火灾事故预测模型.该模型兼具灰色系统与BP网络的优点,不但能体现火灾复杂的灰色系统行为,又能根据每次学习误差的不同调整学习速率,加快收敛速度.与单一的GM(1,1)模型相比,该模型预测结果具有更高的精度.     

Strategies for sustainable development of industrial park in Ulsan,South Korea—From spontaneous evolution to systematic expansion of industrial symbiosis

The Korea National Cleaner Production Center (KNCPC) affiliated to the Korea Institute of Industrial Technology (KITECH) has started a 15 year, 3-phase EIP master plan with the support of Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Energy (MOCIE). A total of 6 industrial parks, including industrial parks in Ulsan city, known as the industrial capital of South Korea, are planning projects to find the feasibility of shifting existing industrial parks to eco-industrial parks. The basic survey shows that Ulsan industrial complex has been continuously evolving from conventional industrial complexes to eco-industrial parks by spontaneous industrial symbiosis. This paper describes the Korean national policies and the developmental activities of this vision to drive the global trend of innovation for converting the existing industrial parks to eco-industrial parks through inter-industry waste, energy, and material exchange in Ulsan Industrial complexes. In addition, the primary and supportive components of the Ulsan EIP pilot project, which will be implemented for 5 years is elaborated with its schedules and economic benefits.     

Transaction Costs Economics of Irreplaceability: <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex ante</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex post</Emphasis> Evaluation of Conservation Networks’ Vulnerability to Environmental Shocks

The theoretical concept, “asset specificity,” is applied to real data in the context of Danish nature conservation network planning in order to produce illustrative examples of an economic measure of the network’s vulnerability to exogenous shocks to the species composition. Three different measures of asset specificity are quantified from the shadow value of eliminating a key species from the individual grid cells. This represents a novel approach and a different interpretation of the term, as it is conventionally used as a qualitative indicator in the transaction cost economics literature. Apart from supplementing existing cost measures with an indicator of risk associated with investments in protected areas, this study demonstrates how the estimation and interpretation of various asset specificity measures for geographical areas may qualify policy makers’ choice of policy instrument in conservation planning. This differs from the more intuitive approach of basing policy instrument choice solely on the rarity of the species in a given area.     

When Has an Abandoned Field Become a Semi-Natural Grassland or Heathland?

This study presents a meta-analysis of a collective dataset describing the succession from abandoned fields to semi-natural grassland and heathland vegetation over the past century. The study objectives were to develop a method for statistical discrimination between abandoned fields and semi-natural habitats and to analyze the probability that an abandoned field had developed into a semi-natural habitat. A statistical classification model was developed, based on lists of vascular plants from 2059 plots from Danish semi-natural grasslands and heathlands, and abandoned fields of varying age. This model was shown to discriminate effectively between abandoned fields and semi-natural habitats, and it was found to be potentially useful for the detection of abandoned fields approaching semi-natural vegetation. We suggest that the model may help clarify restoration targets and assess biological condition in formerly cultivated areas. Statistical modeling revealed that succession age, period of abandonment and succession trajectory had significant effects on the probability that abandoned fields reached the semi-natural phase. Our study indicates that restoration projects targeting grassland and heathland should take local species pools and soil fertility into account. Nomenclature: Species names follow Flora Europaea (Tutin and others 1964–1993).