THE PROBABILITY OF CONSECUTIVE RAINLESS DAYS1

ABSTRACT: A major objective of this work was to develop a method applicable to the Intermountain region for estimating the probability of n consecutive dry days, where n ≤ 30 days. One result was a computationally simple method of producing the desired estimates directly from the rainfall record. For a consecutive dry-day period of n days, these estimates are equivalent to those obtained from a Markov model of order n-1. The efficacy of a simple Markov model was also evaluated. In this climatic region, the simple Markov model produces probability estimates of consecutive dry days that are too conservative, especially at long dry-day periods. In this data set, it was found that the longer the dry-day sequence, the more conservative the Markov estimate. The source of these conservative estimates is the strong dry-day persistence, which is characteristic of summer weather in the Intermountain region. In this region, the best estimates of the probability of consecutive dry days are probably those obtained directly from a representative rainfall record and smoothed by the partial sums of a fourier Series.     

农药在生态环境中的持久性及残留的研究方法

本文报导农药在生态环境中的持久性及残的研究方法，它包括农药在作物、土壤和水等环境介质中的持外性，以及农药在这些介质中中的残留量与农药的施用量和施药次数的关系等方面的内容，本文还介绍了农药在作物中最高残留限量与安全间隔期的计算方法。     

贫困的“物以类聚”：中国的农村空间贫困陷阱及其识别

理解贫困陷阱及其成因是理解减贫机制,进而理解贫困治理的基础。早期的实证研究注重从收入的角度研究农村贫困,较新的研究开始关注“空间外部性”对农村贫困的影响。然而,要正确识别农村的“贫困陷阱”,就需要对上述两个维度同时进行解释。鉴于此,运用中国县级层面的面板数据,从聚集与持久两个维度对中国的农村贫困陷阱进行了识别。研究结果表明：2006—2016年,中国农村的贫困空间格局几乎没有变化,并且贫困的空间分布与经济增长也并非是同步的,贫困县的分布主要与地形（坡度、海拔）因素有关;进一步研究还发现,中国的农村贫困具有持久性,贫困县收入存在低水平的均衡,贫困县与非贫困县之间存在收入的“俱乐部收敛”。本文揭示了空间外部性与农村贫困之间的关系,为正确评估经济发展与扶贫开发,合理制定区域反贫困瞄准机制提供了支持。     

Persistence and growth of faecal culturable bacterial indicators in water column and sediments of Vidy Bay, Lake Geneva, Switzerland

The aims of this study was to investigate the persistence and the growth of culturable bacterial indicators (CBI) including total coliforms (TC) and faecal coliforms represented by Escherichia coli, enterococcus (ENT), and aerobic mesophilic bacteria (AMB) in the surface sediments and the water column of Vidy Bay (Lake Geneva, City of Lausanne, Switzerland). The study was carried out for 60 d using microcosms containing Sewage Treatment Plant (STP) e uent and nonsterile water without CBI, as well as contaminated and non-contaminated sediments. The e ects of water temperature and of organic matter associated with sediments on the survival of CBI in the sediments and the water column were observed. The number of CBI colonies in the contaminated sediments of Vidy Bay and in the STP e uent was almost identical in the order of 105–107, 104–106, 103–105, and 104–107 CFU/100 g sediment or /100 mL water for TC, E. coli, ENT, and AMB respectively. A degradation of CBI was observed in the sediments where organic mater content was low and in the water column at a temperature of 10°C after 5 d of experimentation. In addition, a growth of CBI was observed in the sediment which is rich in organic matter at 20°C. The results of this study indicate: (1) the higher concentrations of the CBI observed in di erent points in the water column of Vidy Bay may not be explained only by the recent contribution of the three potential sources of the Bay contamination including STP and the Chamberonne and Flon Rivers, but also by the persistence, removal from sediment and multiplication of CBI in the sediment and water column; (2) the sediment of Vidy Bay constitute a reservoir of CBI and can even support their growth; and (3) the CBI not only survive in sediments, but also can be remobilized and increased in the water column, therefore, it become a permanent microbiological pollution in Vidy Bay.     

Exploring Persistence in Streamflow Forecasting

In this study, the authors explore three persistence approaches in streamflow forecasting motivated by the need for forecasting model skill evaluation. The authors use streamflow observations with 15 min resolution from the year 2008 to 2017 at 140 United States Geological Survey streamflow gauges monitoring the streams and rivers over the State of Iowa. The spatial scale of the basins ranges from about 7 to 37,000 km². The study explores three approaches: simple persistence, gradient persistence, and anomaly persistence. The study shows that persistence forecasts skill has strong dependence on basin scales and weaker but non‐negligible dependence on geometric properties of the river network for a given basin. Among the three approaches explored, anomaly persistence shows highest skill especially for small basins, under about 500 km². The anomaly persistence can serve as a benchmark for model evaluations considering the effect of basin scales and geometric properties of river network of the basin. This study further reiterates that persistence forecasts are hard‐to‐beat methods for larger basin scales at short to medium forecast range.     

Fungicidal Activity of Artemisia herba alba Asso (Asteraceae)

The antifungal activity of Artemisia herba alba was found to be associated with two major volatile compounds isolated from the fresh leaves of the plant. Carvone and piperitone were isolated and identified by GC/MS, GC/IR, and NMR spectroscopy. Antifungal activity was measured against Penicillium citrinum (ATCC 10499) and Mucora rouxii (ATCC 24905). The antifungal activity (IC₅₀) of the purified compounds was estimated to be 5 μ g/ml, 2 μ g/ml against Penicillium citrinum and 7 μ g/ml, 1.5 μ g/ml against Mucora rouxii carvone and piperitone, respectively.     

Metolachlor persistence in laboratory and field soils under Indian tropical conditions

Abstract

Metolachlor [2‐chloro‐N‐(2‐methoxy‐1‐methylethyl)‐2'‐ethyl‐6'‐methyl acetanilide] dissipation under both field and laboratory conditions were studied during summer season in an Indian soil. Metolachlor was found to have moderate persistence with a half‐life of 27 days in field. The herbicide got leached down to 15–30 cm soil layer and residues were found up to harvest day of the sunflower crop in both 0–15 cm and 15–30 cm soil layers. Metolachlor was found to be more persistent in laboratory studies conducted for 190 days. The rate of degradation was faster in soil under flooded partial anaerobic conditions as compared to aerobic soil with a half‐life of 44.3 days. In aerobic soil, metolachlor was very stable with only 49% dissipation in 130 days. Residues remained in both the soils up to the end of the experimental period of 190 days.     

Surfactant effect on persistence of oxadiazolyl 3(2H)-pyridazinones against Pseudaletia separata walker

The photodynamic decomposition of two new insect-growth inhibitors (IGRs), 2-tert-butyl-5-[5′-aryl-2′-(1′,3′,4′-oxadiazolyl)methoxy]-3(2H)-pyridazinones (OPB) and its 4-chloro substituted derivative (OPC), and effect of surfactants on persistence of their bioactivity were taken into investigation. Both chemicals were significantly induced to photolysis by ultraviolet light at 365 nm wavelength and their inhibitory activities against Pseudaletia separata larvae decreased with the increasing irradiation time. However, irradiation at 254 nm wavelength didn't cause their photodegradation. Triton X-100 and Succinic-sulfonie acidic sodium but not Tween 60 possessed strong capability to slow down the decomposition and obviously prolonged the half life of OPC in laboratory and field whilst effects of the three surfactants almost did not preserve the inhibitory activity of OPB. Data suggested that electron-withdrawing halogen (?Cl) on the π electron system in planar benzene-oxadialyl structures might reduce the efficiency of OPC on ultraviolet (UV) photoabsorption, and its hydrophobic interaction with the surfactants might be beneficial for forming stable micellar solubilization, thus sustaining the chemical's bioactivity.     

Control of bacterial speck of tomato by copper and ethylenebisuithiocarbamate fungicides: Their efficacy and residues on leaves

Abstract

Field studies were conducted to determine the synergism, persistence, and efficacy of a tank‐mix spray of cupric hydroxide and mancozeb for control of bacterial speck of tomato. The increased efficacy of the cupric hydroxide‐mancozeb mixture could not be attributed to the formation of a bacteriostatic compound in the tank mixture nor to a greater persistence of the mixture on the tomato foliage.     

Persistence characteristics of operationally sprayed fenitrothion in nearby unsprayed areas of a conifer forest ecosystem in New Brunswick

Abstract

Persistence characteristics of operationally sprayed fenitrothion were investigated in various substrates sampled from neighbouring unsprayed areas in New Brunswick. Air, water, sediment, aquatic plants, fish, balsam fir [Abies balsamea (L.) Mill] foliage, forest soil and litter samples were collected from random sampling locations selected within 200 m from the operational spray blocks. The same substrates were resampled from the same plots and from the same locations about a year later just prior to the commencement of the operational spraying. Control samples were collected from an unsprayed site, near Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. All samples were analysed for fenitrothion, by gas‐liquid chromatography. Except the fish samples all the substrates collected during the time of operational spraying contained low but detectable levels of fenitrothion. When collected a year later prior to the operational spray program, only balsam fir showed any detectable levels (detection limit, 0.01 ppm) of the chemical. All other samples showed no fenitrothion residues (detection limit for air, 10 ng/m³; for water, 0.01 ppb; and for other samples, 0.01 ppm). The findings confirmed that fenitrothion does not persist for an extended period of time in the aquatic substrates. The conifer foliage, however, showed persistent residues at a level of about 0.55 ppm even after the winter months, although there was no indication of accumulation of the chemical as a result of repeated exposure. The study demonstrated that the conifer needles acted as a micro sink for the chemical which showed a tendency to persist in the leaf tissues for a considerable length of time.