Multicompartmental fate of persistent substances

Background, Aim and Scope Modelling of the fate of environmental chemicals can be done by relatively simple multi-media box models or using complex atmospheric transport models. It was the aim of this work to compare the results obtained for both types of models using a small set of non-ionic and non-polar or moderately polar organic chemicals, known to be distributed over long distances. Materials and Methods Predictions of multimedia exposure models of different types, namely three multimedia mass-balance box models (MBMs), two in the steady state and one in the non-steady state mode, and one non-steady state multicompartment chemistry-atmospheric transport model (MCTM), are compared for the first time. The models used are SimpleBox, Chemrange, the MPI-MBM and the MPI-MCTM. The target parameters addressed are compartmental distributions (i.e. mass fractions in the compartments), overall environmental residence time (i.e. overall persistence and eventually including other final sinks, such as loss to the deep sea) and a measure for the long-range transport potential. These are derived for atrazine, benz-[a]-pyrene, DDT, α and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane, methyl parathion and various modes of substance entry into the model world. Results and Discussion Compartmental distributions in steady state were compared. Steady state needed 2–10 years to be established in the MCTM. The highest fraction of the substances in air is predicted by the MCTM. Accordingly, the other models predict longer substance persistence in most cases. The results suggest that temperature affects the compartmental distribution more in the box models, while it is only one among many climate factors acting in the transport model. The representation of final sinks in the models, e.g. burial in the sediment, is key for model-based compartmental distribution and persistence predictions. There is a tendency of MBMs to overestimate substance sinks in air and to underestimate atmospheric transport velocity as a consequence of the neglection of the temporal and spatial variabilities of these parameters. Therefore, the long-range transport potential in air derived from MCTM simulations exceeds the one from Chemrange in most cases and least for substances which undergo slow degradation in air. Conclusions and Perspectives MBMs should be improved such as to ascertain that the significance of the atmosphere for the multicompartmental cycling is not systematically underestimated. Both types of models should be improved such as to cover degradation in air in the particle-bound state and transport via ocean currents. A detailed understanding of the deviations observed in this work and elsewhere should be gained and multimedia fate box models could then be ‘tuned in’ to match better the results of comprehensive multicompartmental transport models. ESS-Submission Editor: Prof. Dr. Michael Matthies (matthies@uos.de)     

SEASONAL ARIMA INFLOW MODELS FOR RESERVOIR SIZING1

ABSTRACT: The reliable sizing of reservoirs is a very important task of hydraulic engineering. Although many reservoirs throughout the world have been designed using Rippl's mass curves with historical inflow volumes at the dam site, this technique is now considered outdated. In this paper, synthetic series of monthly inflows are used as an alternative to historical inflow records. These synthetic series are generated from stochastic SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models. The analyzed data refer to the planned Almopeos Reservoir on the Almopeos River in Northern Greece with 19‐year monthly inflow series. The analysis of this study demonstrates the ability of SARIMA models, in conjunction with the adequate transformation, to forecast monthly inflows of one or more months ahead and generate synthetic series of monthly inflows that preserve the key statistics of the historical monthly inflows and their persistence Hurst coefficient K. The forecasted monthly inflows would be of help in evaluating the optimal real time reservoir operation policies and the generated synthetic series of monthly inflows can be used to provide a probabilistic framework for reservoir design and to cope with the situation where the design horizon of interest exceeds the length of the historical inflow record.     

广州地区PBDEs长距离迁移潜力和总持久性模拟

运用TaPL3.0模型对7种PBDEs同系物在广州地区的长距离迁移潜力(LRTP)和总持久性(Pov)进行了模拟研究,并通过灵敏度分析得到了模型的关键参数.研究结果显示,PBDEs排放至大气中,特征迁移距离(CTD)为296~811km,均值为557km;Pov为19~279d,均值为184d;PBDEs平均约有73.8%分布在土壤中,16.9%分布在沉积物中,9.3%分布在其他三相中.PBDEs排放到水体时,CTD为3090~4291km,均值为3731km;Pov范围为228~854d,均值为731d;平均约92.1%分布在沉积物中,6.8%分布在水相中,1.1%在大气、土壤和植被相中.BDE47迁移潜力最大,BDE209易残留于源区形成点源性污染.PBDEs各同系物主要分布在沉积物和土壤中.随着溴代程度升高,CTD逐渐降低,Pov逐渐升高,与国外研究趋势一致.     

Phytotoxicity and persistence of metribuzin residues in black soil

A bioassay procedure based on the root and shoot growth of cucumber and sorghum were used to study the phytotoxicity, as affected by varying the concentration of metribuzin, and persistence of metribuzin residues in soil. Sorghum and cucumber were found to be very susceptible test plant species to metribuzin. It was found that the persistence and phytotoxicity increased with increasing rate of application of metribuzin, and the relationship between herbicide concentration and phytotoxicity was best described by a quadratic equation. Sorghum and cucumber plants emerged as very sensitive new bioassay plants for metribuzin and could detect residues even at 0.010 and 0.046?ppm in the post harvest soil of potato crop.     

兰州地区典型有机污染物长距离迁移及其总持久性模拟

运用TaPL3模型研究了兰州半干旱地区典型有机污染物通过大气和水体的长距离迁移(LRT)及其总持久性(P_ov),讨论了LRT和Pov之间的关系. 以2,3,7,8-TCDD为例,分别利用灵敏度和蒙特卡罗方法对模型的关键参数和输出结果的不确定性进行了研究. 结果显示:2,3,7,8-TCDD,γ-HCH,BaP和HCB在兰州地区通过大气的特征迁移距离(CTD)分别为126,934,117和13 307 km,P_ov分别为1 421,1 082,1 413和3 949 d;通过水体的CTD分别为6 633,119 000,16 249和16 658 km,P_ov分别为1 584,1 551,2 711和4 428 d,且污染物的LRT和P_ov没有直接的联系. 同国外的研究相比,兰州地区的2,3,7,8-TCDD通过大气的CTD明显偏低,通过水体的CTD明显偏高,而P_ov都明显偏高.      

兰州地区16种多环芳烃的长距离迁移潜力和总持久性模拟研究

使用TaPL3模型对兰州地区16种PAHs通过大气和水体的长距离迁移潜力(LRTP)和总持久性(Pov)进行了模拟研究,比较了不同环数多环芳烃(PAHs)的特征迁移距离(CTD)和Pov的大小,对两者的关系进行了分析讨论,并以BaP为例对关键参数进行了灵敏度分析.研究结果表明,16种PAHs在兰州地区通过大气的特征迁移距离(CTDAir)在18.9km(BghiP)和734.9km(PYR)之间,总持久性(PovAir)在0.41d(ACE)和1304.76d(BaP)之间;通过水体的特征迁移距离(CTDWater)在511.1km(NAP)和34472.6km(BghiP)之间,PovWater在5.35d(NAP)和4156.59d(BghiP)之间.16种PAHs中,芘在空气中的LRTP最大,苯并[ghi]芘在水中的LRTP最大.中、高环数PAHs的PovAir和PovWater要比低环数PAHs高.此外,CTD和Pov没有表现出直接的关系.与国外的同类研究相比,BaP在兰州地区的CTDAir明显偏低.     

三环唑在稻-土-水体系中的持留、迁移变化

采用田间试验与模拟试验相结合,研究了二环唑在南方稻区稻-土-水体系中的残留与迁变。结果表明,三种土壤吸附性能,海涂土最差,小粉土与青紫泥相差不大。三环唑在海涂土和小粉土上渗漏性有明显差异,吸附性差的海涂土渗漏速率大;不同淋洗水量对海涂土渗漏性影响随淋洗量增加而增大,在田间实际用药水平下,三环唑能够纵向渗漏至地下水,渗漏特性为海涂土>小粉土>青紫泥;三环唑还能够通过地表水流失横向迁移到周围池塘水中,速度较纵向渗漏快。室内控制条件下,水稻秧苗能够吸收土-水体系中的农药,且吸收量与水中农药浓度呈正相关,达极显著水平(0.01水平)。三环唑残留量采用凝结法净化,GC-FPD(S-型)检测。     

Threats to biodiversity from cumulative human impacts in one of North America's last wildlife frontiers

Land‐use change is the largest proximate threat to biodiversity yet remains one of the most complex to manage. In British Columbia (BC), where large mammals roam extensive tracts of intact habitat, continued land‐use development is of global concern. Extant mammal diversity in BC is unrivalled in North America owing, in part, to its unique position at the intersection of alpine, boreal, and temperate biomes. Despite high conservation values, understanding of cumulative ecological impacts from human development is limited. Using cumulative‐effects‐assessment (CEA) methods, we assessed the current human footprint over 16 regional ecosystems and 7 large mammal species. Using historical and current range estimates of the mammals, we investigated impacts of human land use on species’ persistence. For ecosystems, we found that bunchgrass, coastal Douglas fir, and ponderosa pine have been subjected to over 50% land‐use conversion, and over 85% of their spatial extent has undergone either direct or estimated indirect impacts. Of the mammals we considered, wolves were the least affected by land conversion, yet all species had reduced ranges compared with historical estimates. We found evidence of a hard trade‐off between development and conservation, most clearly for mammals with large distributions and ecosystems with high levels of conversion. Rather than serve as a platform to monitor species decline, we strongly advocate these data be used to inform land‐use planning and to assess current conservation efforts. More generally, CEAs offer a robust tool to inform wildlife and habitat conservation at scale.     

Connecting science,policy, and implementation for landscape‐scale habitat connectivity

We examined the links between the science and policy of habitat corridors to better understand how corridors can be implemented effectively. As a case study, we focused on a suite of landscape‐scale connectivity plans in tropical and subtropical Asia (Malaysia, Singapore, and Bhutan). The process of corridor designation may be more efficient if the scientific determination of optimal corridor locations and arrangement is synchronized in time with political buy‐in and establishment of policies to create corridors. Land tenure and the intactness of existing habitat in the region are also important to consider because optimal connectivity strategies may be very different if there are few, versus many, political jurisdictions (including commercial and traditional land tenures) and intact versus degraded habitat between patches. Novel financing mechanisms for corridors include bed taxes, payments for ecosystem services, and strategic forest certifications. Gaps in knowledge of effective corridor design include an understanding of how corridors, particularly those managed by local communities, can be protected from degradation and unsustainable hunting. There is a critical need for quantitative, data‐driven models that can be used to prioritize potential corridors or multicorridor networks based on their relative contributions to long‐term metacommunity persistence.     

单甲脒在土壤中的降解及持久性研究

本文对四种不同类型土壤中单甲脒及其盐酸盐在厌氧与好氧条件下的降解动态及其残留进行了研究。结果表明单甲脒及其盐酸盐均属不稳定的化合物，单甲脒在土壤中的半衰期为４．６－９．１ｄ，其盐酸盐的半衰期为２．０－６．２ｄ。结果还表明单甲脒盐酸盐在厌氧条件下较在好氧条件下降解缓慢；在厌氧条件时，土壤的ｐＨ值对其降解影响较大。在相同条件下，单甲脒比它的盐酸盐酸盐降解慢，其降解速率与土壤ｐＨ值无关。