运用SCI-GROW模型预测农药对地下水的污染风险

在对美国环境保护局开发的地下水暴露评价模型进行比较的基础上,选择SCI-GROW模型预测我国福建省甘蔗种植区5种常用农药对地下水的污染风险,并将模型预测结果与该地区地下水中农药的实测结果进行比较,对模型进行验证.结果表明,模型预测结果与实测结果之间具有很好的相关性,SCI-GROW模型能较好地用于我国东南沿海等地下水位较高、降水量较大、土壤砂性等地下水易受污染地区农药的筛选评价.最后,运用SCI-GROW模型预测涕灭威等17种我国常用农药对地下水的污染风险,为这些农药的科学使用提供参考.     

A Numerical and Field Investigation of Surface Heat Fluxes from Small Wind-Sheltered Waterbodies in Semi-Arid Western Australia

Shelterbelts are used for a variety of purposes in agricultural environments, primarily because of their ability to improve the downwind microclimate. Excessive evaporative losses from small, agricultural water supply reservoirs in semi-arid Western Australia motivated a combined numerical modelling and field investigation into the potential for using shelterbelts to reduce evaporation from these open waterbodies. A numerical model of the disturbed momentum and turbulence fields in the region modified by the wind-shelter was employed and accounted for the presence of a waterbody downwind. The model was coupled with conservation equations for heat and moisture and sensible and latent heat fluxes were estimated from the simulated momentum, temperature and humidity fields. The numerical simulations were tested against four days of field data from two experiments conducted in the agricultural districts of southwest Western Australia that measured boundary-layer evolution over a variety of small waterbodies protected by artifical and natural wind-shelters. The model provided good predictions of windspeed during neutral conditions, but inadequate specification of the upwind boundary during non-neutral stabilities resulted in the model failing to capture any sensitivity to atmospheric stability as seen in the field data. Despite this limitation, the temperature and humidity fields were adequately captured by the model, and evaporative mass flux predictions also agreed well with estimates taken from water-balance measurements. It is concluded that well-designed wind-shelters can reduce evaporation from open waterbodies by 20–30% as a result of reductions in the velocity scales responsible for removing moisture from the water surface. The model can be used to estimate the values of various shelterbelt design parameters (e.g., porosity, height) that could be applied in the field to provide optimum evaporation reductions.     

广州市东部地区土地资源承载力研究

应用土地遥感解译图，对广州市东部地区的土地利用现状进行分析；并根据广州总体发展战略规划，进行了东部地区土地资源承载力研究。结果表明，如果2020年广州市东部地区耕地保有面积达到基本农田保护区面积。则城市发展所需的土地资源可以满足规划要求。城市发展建设应先占用那些质量较差的农用地。     

城市大气污染综合治理规划方法

以北京市2008年三种主要大气污染物PM10、SO2及NOx环境空气质量达标方案的设计为案例，从城市大气污染综合治理规划方法学角度，提出并发展了一套包括环境空气质量的模拟、城市背景浓度的确定、优化模型、传输矩阵、分区规划、等效排放、措施信息库等方法在内的城市大气污染综合治理规划问题的整体解决的技术方案，为全国其它类似城市进行大气污染综合治理规划提供一种实例与参考，同时，研究的结果对北京市2008年大气污染控制对策的制定提供了科学的依据。     

应用HYDRUS-1D模型模拟农田土壤水渗漏及硝态氮淋失特征

在定位试验基础上,应用HYDRUS-1D模型对黄淮海平原典型土壤(黄潮土)中土壤水渗漏及硝态氮淋失动态进行了模拟分析。结果表明:在传统水氮管理模式下,黄潮土2m土体深处的土壤水渗漏和硝态氮淋失非常严重,2个轮作期内,土壤水渗漏总量占地表总入水量的23.7%,硝态氮淋失总量占总输入N量的15.9%,冬小麦生长季的硝态氮淋失量大于夏玉米生长季;改良灌溉和改良施肥模式下产生的硝态氮淋失量比传统灌溉和传统施肥模式减少74.7%,节约灌溉水211.5mm、节省施N423.5kg·hm-2。     

纳滤膜处理高浓度废液分离规律研究

利用管式或卷式纳滤膜处理废弃母液，在固定工艺条件下，透过液通量与浓缩时间呈一定数学关系；当浓缩进行到最后，透过液中的COD浓度会突然提高，该突然下降时间应长连续浓缩时间，抗生素截留率的变化规律基本与COD的去除率相同，但数值不同。利用COD的变化规律基本可以确定抗生素的变化趋势。     

天津市机动车污染评估方法

依据城市机动车空气污染评价方法确立了天津市空气污染物机动车污染的评价体系。该评价体系具有准确性、先进性和实用性，采用科学的方法估算天津市城区机动车排气污染物的排放浓度及总量对环境空气污染的分担率。科学地给出了天津市现阶段机动车污染的现状及发展趋势，为环境保护决策提供了科学依据。     

Use of Substitute Species in Conservation Biology

Abstract:  In conservation biology, researchers often want to study the reasons why an endangered population is faring poorly but are unable to study it directly for logistical or political reasons. Instead they study a species that substitutes for the one of concern in the hope that it will cast light on the conservation problem. Here we outline the assumptions underlying this approach. Substitutes can be different populations or species and may be chosen because they are similar biologically to the target or representatives of a constellation of species of which the target is one. They also may be used to develop a predictive model to which the conservation target can be related. For substitutes to be appropriate, they should share the same key ecological or behavioral traits that make the target sensitive to environmental disturbance and the relationship between population vital rates and level of disturbance should match that of the target. These conditions are unlikely to pertain in most circumstances and the use of substitute species to predict endangered populations' responses to disturbance is questionable.     

岳阳市城市绿化树种的选择及配置模式研究

选择观赏价值高、抗逆性强、保健功能强、经济效益高同时具有丰富历史文化底蕴和地方特色的植物材料用于城市林业建设中,可显著提高城市园林绿化的科技含量和综合效益;在园林植物配置上,根据园林美学原则和功能性要求,进行混植、群植、丛植、对植和孤植等,在充分发挥树木的群体美和个体美的同时可显著提高配置模式的整体功能性．     

A General Model for Analyzing Data from Mark-recapture Experiments with an Application to the Pacific Halibut

A general model is developed to examine the patterns of the regional movement of tagged and released fish from mark-recapture experiments. It is a stochastic model that incorporates fishing mortality, natural mortality, fish movement, tag-shedding, and different rates of reporting. A likelihood function is constructed for estimating its parameters. We used this model to analyze data on the Pacific halibut from mark-recapture experiments conducted by the International Pacific Halibut Commission (IPHC), with a total of 36,058 releases from 1982 to 1986 and 5,826 recoveries from 1982 to 2000. We estimated their rates of movement among IPHC management areas, along with their instantaneous rates of natural and fishing mortalities. Our analysis revealed that fish movement was not significant among areas, with a resident probability of > 0.92. This lends support to the IPHC catch-at-age stock assessment model (which has no built-in movement components). The estimated instantaneous rate of natural mortality (0.198 year⁻¹) lies between that assumed in all IPHC stock assessments before 1998 (0.20 year⁻¹) and that from 1999 onwards (0.15 year⁻¹). The estimates of the instantaneous rates of fishing mortality were consistent with those from the IPHC stock assessment model. Received: April 2003 / Revised: May 2005