基于PLUS-InVEST模型的江西省生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测

土地利用变化是影响陆地生态系统碳储量变化的重要因素,研究土地利用变化与碳储量之间关系对优化区域土地利用结构,维持区域碳平衡可提供可靠的数据支撑.以江西省为例,分析1990~2020年土地利用变化,基于PLUS模型,结合自然发展情景、生态优先情景和经济发展情景设置,对2030年江西省土地利用格局进行模拟分析,运用InVEST模型测算1990~2020年及未来不同情景下江西省碳储量变化,利用空间自相关分析探索江西省不同情景下陆地生态系统碳储量时空变化特征,并提出相应的政策建议.结果表明:①1990~2020年江西省碳储量整体呈下降趋势,共减少4.58×10⁷ t.其中,水域和建设用地的面积增加,耕地、林地、草地及未利用地面积减少是导致碳储量减少的主要原因.②2030年江西省陆地生态系统碳储量在自然发展情景、生态优先情景和经济发展情景下分别为2.20×10⁹、2.24×10⁹和2.19×10⁹ t.③3种情景下的碳储量值在空间分布上具有相似性,碳储量高值区域在江西省北部、西北部及西部区域出现集聚,低值区域则在中部区域聚集.研究结果可为江西省未来国土空间规划,提升陆地生态系统碳储量提供数据支撑.     

Water-smart growth planning: linking water and land in the arid urbanizing American West

Linking water and land is essential in planning for the future of the western United States. We propose the concept of ‘water-smart growth’ and explore its implications through incorporating water considerations into the SLEUTH land-use model. The urban growth trajectory in Cache County, Utah, is modeled from 2007 to 2030 under four different scenarios: current trend; smart growth; water-smart growth with moderate implementation; and water-smart growth with full implementation. Comparisons of simulation results illustrate the extent and ways in which water-smart growth would alter current established land-use growth patterns. The approach represents an initial step to better integrate land and water in urban growth modeling and planning. This study's purposes are to provide improved understanding and representation of linkages between water and land in urbanizing environments, offer insights from a set of modeled options, and demonstrate the significance of integrating land and water in planning practices.     

化工园区安全规划发展历史回顾

系统回顾了化工园区安全规划的发展历史,简要介绍不同国家化工园区安全规划的分区制思想以及相应的法律法规要求。以1970年代中期为界,化工园区安全规划历史大体可分为两个阶段。第一阶段基本确立了土地利用规划分区制的思想,风险越大,工业活动就建设在距人居环境越远的区域。但由于没有量化的理论和方法支持,因此,不能准确确定合适的安全距离。第二阶段从科学的土地利用规划开始并得益于定量风险评价的日趋成熟和广泛使用。由于能够定量计算出比较准确的安全距离和可承受风险,因而可以更好地进行工业活动分区和安全规划。目前单纯基于风险的安全规划暴露出一定的局限性,人们不仅要考虑工业活动的潜在风险,而且需要综合考虑经济、社会、环境、生态以及人文历史等诸多因素,因此,急需研究能够综合处理复杂问题的安全规划理论和方法。回顾历史并分析和比较,笔者认为,科学的安全规划是预防重特大事故的根本措施之一,健全的法制基础是实施安全规划的必要保障,风险评价技术是实施安全规划的有力武器。取得的研究成果对我国化工园区以及其他工业园区的建设具有一定的借鉴和启迪作用。     

经济增长方式转变与节约利用土地研究

在当前努力实现经济增长方式转变的过程中,经济方式的转变与节约利用土地资源的关系有待探讨。经济增长方式的本质内容是生产要素的组合和使用方式。转变经济增长方式,即从依靠生产要素的数量扩张而实现的粗放型经济增长,转变为依靠生产要素的效率提高而实现的集约型经济增长[1]。土地作为社会经济发展的重要要素之一,对土地资源的节约利用是实现集约型经济增长的重要内容之一,同时节约利用土地资源对经济增长方式的转变起着重要的促进作用。     

黄土高原半干旱区侧柏林群落土壤呼吸日变化及季节动态变化特征

Desertification is one of the most serious eco-environmental problems around Qinghai Lake. Based on GIS and RS, GIS analysis was used to obtain the information of spatial-temporal change and different pattern of desertification in each county around Qinghai Lake in four phases of 1976, 1987, 1995 and 2006. Using the function of intersect and overlay supported by ARCGIS, with analyzing attributes of vector RS images, we obtained transition data and established transfer matrix of land-use types in recent 30 years, besides, protracted land-use transition maps of all desertification classes. In further, we analyzed transition quantity and direction of desertification in each county, moreover, reconstructed the process of spatial-temporal evolution of desertification. The results are showed below: (1) it′s the transition between desertified land and others but not in the desertified that played the main role in Gangcha and Gonghe County, while the transfer between desertified lands were greater than that with other land-use types in Haiyan County. (2) Extremely severe desertified land mainly distributes in Ketu and Sand Islands that belongs to Haiyan County, and moderate desertified land in riversides of Gangcha County, also, the light desertification expanded too rapidly to become the most desertified land-use type in the surrounding of Qinghai Lake since 1976. (3) By using relative change rate of desertified land, the regional variability rank from top to toe was Gangcha, Haiyan and Gonghe.     

大城市土地利用优化与抗震防灾规划

随着城市人口的增加和工业化、城镇化水平的提高，导致非农建设用地需求增大，人地矛盾日益突出，盲目增加建设用地需求量，会增大城市的危险性系数。采用地理信息系统技术，在分析北京市地震烈度对土地影响的基础上，对土地利用的数量结构和空间结构进行了优化，以实现对土地资源的合理利用、安全规划和优化配置。     

城乡交错带土地利用研究——以芜湖市为例

城乡交错带是城市扩展和农村发展的前沿,也是统筹城乡关系的重点地区。选择芜湖市城乡交错带为研究区域,利用2004年土地利用数据分析了芜湖市城乡交错带地域土地利用的现状和存在的主要问题及其原因,探讨了2006年辖区调整后该地域土地利用的对策与措施。     

醴陵市土地利用与生态环境建设问题研究

在阐述醴陵市土地利用和生态环境现状的基础上,分析了醴陵市土地利用中存在的主要问题,对生态环境现状进行了评价,并提出了醴陵市生态环境建设与保护的战略步骤和措施。     

基于土地利用变化的生态服务价值损益估算--以大庆市为例

土地利用／覆盖变化遥感研究表明，大庆市自1988年以来土地利用状态变化很大，由此引起了该区域生态环境的一系列响应及其生态系统服务价值的变化。以大庆市1988年和2001年的Landsat TM图像解译数据为基础，应用Costanza等人对全球生态系统服务价值的测算方法，分析了该市土地利用变化及其所引起的生态系统服务价值的变化。研究结果表明，13年间，大庆市土地利用的变化损害了该区域生态系统的生态服务功能，使生态系统服务价值损失了20．76％-24．01％。     

TIM: Assessing the sustainability of agricultural land management

TIM (Threat Identification Model) is a framework for the ex ante assessment of agricultural land management sustainability at the land unit scale that identifies sources of unsustainability within agricultural land management systems. The model explicitly links defined hazards to land productivity and environmental integrity, land resource data and information, and land management practice options using expert and local knowledge on land management and its potential effects. The model was tested in the Crystal Creek Subcatchment, a narrow coastal strip of land situated in north Queensland, Australia. This area was chosen due to the expansion of the sugar industry onto increasingly marginal land in the area, which represents a threat to sustainable land use and a requirement for careful land-use planning and land management.TIM may be used in a relational database as a stand alone decision support system for land-management planning. Its usefulness in land-use planning is greatest when it is linked to a Geographic Information System (GIS) as shown in this paper. GIS allows TIM outputs, such as constraints to agriculture and site-specific best-management practices, to be identified in a spatially explicit manner.The main advantages of TIM are that it can be done ex ante, it removes the need to define sustainability assessment criteria and indicators, it utilises current understanding of the causes and effects of land degradation and how different land-management practices influence these, and links this knowledge to definite land-management options.