DomPrevPlanning: User-friendly software for planning domino effects prevention

Chains of accidents, in literature generally referred to as domino effects, knock-on effects, cascade effects or escalation effects occur very infrequently but with disastrous consequences. There exist very few software packages to study such domino accidents in complex industrial areas and to forecast potential catastrophes caused by secondary order (involving a sequence of three installations submitted to two consecutive accidents), tertiary order or even higher order accidents. Moreover, available domino software focuses on risk assessment and on consequence assessment. None of these toolkits specifically addresses the prioritization of installation sequences in an industrial area in order to facilitate objective prevention decisions about domino effects. This paper describes the application of a new computer-automated tool designed to support decision-making on preventive and protective measures to alleviate domino effects in a complex surrounding of chemical installations. Using a holistic approach and thus looking at the entire industrial area as a whole, all sequences of three installations in the area are ranked according to their danger contribution to domino effects. An example of a cluster of chemical plants demonstrates the level of qualitative and quantitative input data required. The example is also used to explain the toolkit results, as well as the surplus value and the benefits for company safety managers and regulators.     

中国出口贸易与环境目标相容性评估——基于环境效应分解模型的分析

在理论上,国际贸易既可能促进环境改善,也可能加重环境负担。在实际中,国际贸易对环境的影响最终可分解成规模效应、结构效应和技术效应。本文通过构建一个包括政府因素在内的环境效应分解模型,对中国1996年-2005年出口贸易的环境效应进行了大致估算,结果发现中国出口贸易与环境目标不相容,加重了环境负担。最后,在此基础上提出相应对策建议。     

高含硫天然气净化厂工程运营期生态环境负效应研究——以川渝地区某高含硫天然气净化厂为例

高含硫天然气净化厂工程的运营将不可避免地引起一系列的生态环境负效应.本文在借鉴国内外生态评价相关研究成果的基础上,提出了高含硫天然气净化厂工程运营期生态环境负效应评价指标体系,并采用德尔菲法与层次分析法确定了各指标的权重.经用于川渝地区某高含硫天然气净化厂实例研究,通过模糊综合评价法得出该净化厂运营初期产生的环境负效应为Ⅲ级(中等)的结论,这与工程影响区实际调查结果较为一致,表明文中建立的评价指标体系和采用的评价方法较合理,可为类似净化厂工程生态环境负效应研究与评价提供实用参考.     

Using the multiple capitals framework to connect indicators of regional cumulative impacts of mining and pastoralism in the Murray Darling Basin,Australia

It is commonly recognized that there are constraints to successful regional-scale assessment and monitoring of cumulative impacts because of challenges in the selection of coherent and measurable indicators of the effects. It has also been sensibly declared that the connections between components in a region are as important as the state of the elements themselves. These have previously been termed “linked” cumulative impacts/effects. These connections can be difficult to discern because of a complicated set of interactions and unexpected linkages. In this paper we diagnose that a significant cause of these constraints is the selection of indicators without due regard for their inter-relationships in the formulation of the indicator set. The paper examines whether the common “forms of capital”, i.e., natural (renewable and non-renewable), manufactured, social, human and financial capitals, framework is a potential organizing structure. We examine a large region in western NSW Australia where the predominant production systems are mining and grazing for production of wool, beef and lamb. Production in both is driven by consumption of a non-renewable resource, i.e., ore for mining and topsoil for grazing, the latter on the basis that loss rate estimates far exceed soil formation rates. We propose that the challenge of identifying connections of components within and between capital stores can be approached by explicitly separating stores of capital and the flows of capital between stores and between elements within stores, so-called capital fluxes. We attempt to acquire data from public sources for both capital stores and fluxes. The question of whether these data are a sufficient base for regional assessment, with particular reference to connections, is discussed. The well-described challenge of a comparative common currency for stores and fluxes is also discussed. We conclude that the data acquisition is relatively successful for stores and fluxes. A number of linked impacts are identified and discussed. The potential use of money as the common currency for stores and fluxes of capital is considered. The basic proposition is that replacement or preservation costs be used for this. We conclude that the study is sufficiently positive to consider further research in fully-coupled models of capital stores and fluxes.     

The cumulative dimensions of impact in resource regions

The development of mineral and energy resources worldwide has placed pressure on regional environments, economies and communities. The cumulative impacts, or cumulative effects, arising from overlapping development have stretched political systems that have traditionally been geared toward the regulation and management of individual resource developments, presenting challenges for policy makers, resource developers and civil society actors. An equally challenging task has been realisation of the potential development dividends of mineral and energy resources in the areas of business development, infrastructure, human development or the management of resource revenues. This paper introduces a special issue on ‘Understanding and Managing Cumulative Impacts in Resource Regions’. The special issue interrogates the effectiveness of new and traditional policy responses, explores methods and strategies to better respond to cumulative impacts, and details practical examples of collaborative and coordinated approaches. Papers cover a range of environmental, economic and social issues, geographical regions, commodities, and conceptual approaches. This introductory paper introduces the cumulative impact issues that have manifest in resource regions, critically appraises current conceptions of cumulative impacts, and details management and policy responses to address the cumulative dimensions of impact.     

海水溶解组分复合作用对磺胺吡啶光解的影响

为研究海水环境中共存的溶解性物质的复合效应对抗生素光解的影响,以磺胺吡啶为模型化合物,采用响应面法（RSM）研究了海水环境中代表性溶解性物质（溶解性有机质（DOM）、HCO₃^-、NO₃^-和Cl^-）的复合效应对磺胺吡啶光解动力学的影响.结果表明在P <0.05显著性水平,DOM和HCO₃^--NO₃^-是影响磺胺吡啶光解的显著因素.HCO₃^-淬灭NO₃^-光诱导形成的·OH致使HCO₃^--NO₃^-相互作用抑制磺胺吡啶光解.自由基淬灭实验证实DOM促进磺胺吡啶光解主要是由其激发三重态DOM（³DOM^*）诱导.DOM小分子类似物（芳香酮类）稳态光化学实验发现磺胺吡啶的光解速率常数（k）的对数与³DOM^*的氧化电势呈现正相关,同时研究也发现SAs的最低未占据轨道和最高占据轨道能级差影响SAs与³DOM^*的反应活性.     

介质阻挡放电等离子协同TiO_2-GAC降解甲基橙的研究

采用介质阻挡放电(DBD)等离子协同颗粒活性炭负载TiO2(TiO2-GAC)对甲基橙进行降解,研究了该体系的协同处理效果,探讨了放电电压、初始pH、初始电导率、初始浓度和TiO2-GAC投加量等操作参数的影响,并建立了协同体系的表观反应动力学模型.实验结果表明,DBD与TiO2-GAC联合处理表现出明显的协同效应,处理25min后,协同体系对甲基橙的降解率和COD去除率分别为96.2%和90%,与单独DBD体系相比,分别提高了52.7%和50.4%;协同体系降解甲基橙的过程符合表观反应动力学模型,模型值与实验值吻合良好,总级数为2.352;体系中H2O2、O3浓度测定结果表明,与单独DBD体系对比,协同体系的H2O2浓度增高,而O3浓度降低,说明TiO2-GAC起到了催化作用;TiO2-GAC在DBD体系中获得了原位再生,五次再生循环后再生率达80%.     

我国东部浅水湖泊水生态效应特征

为探究我国东部浅水湖泊生态系统的时空异质性及其演替的响应指标,基于东部浅水湖泊长时间序列（1986-2014年）的监测数据,分析了不同湖泊类型的水质和浮游植物群落分布特征,并综合运用稳态转换理论和典范对应分析方法（CCA）,研究了富营养化湖泊浮游植物群落的演替特征以及响应因子.结果表明:①从水系上看,太湖水系湖泊的水质最差,ρ（TP）、ρ（TN）和ρ（Chla）最高,分别为（0.276±0.606）（3.563±1.430）mg/L和（14.801±10.117）μg/L,SD（透明度）为（0.486±0.272）m;从水文连通性上看,湖泊的水质为通江湖泊>非通江湖泊>阻隔湖泊.②空间分布上,湖口以下干流浮游植物密度最高,为2.674×107 L-1.蓝藻门为东部浅水湖泊的优势种群,密度最高达1.897×107 L-1,绿藻门和硅藻门次之,黄藻门最少,仅为3.951×103 L-1.③东部浅水湖泊生态系统演替发生在ρ（Chla）为5.21~10.57 μg/L阈值范围内.④以东部典型湖泊-太湖为例,浮游植物群落分别在1997-1998年和2000-2001年两个时间梯度达到最大值.EC（电导率）和ρ（TN）是影响太湖浮游植物群落分布的显著因子.研究显示,随着东部浅水湖泊水质恶化,浮游植物群落结构特征发生突变,导致其生态系统发生演替,预防东部浅水湖泊生态系统演变应严控EC和ρ（TN）.      

黄石市大气二氧化氮健康效应与人群暴露风险

为揭示黄石市二氧化氮(NO₂)的健康效应和人群暴露风险特征,收集2015～2020年黄石市NO₂浓度、非意外死亡、呼吸系统和循环系统疾病每日死亡人数、内科疾病每日住院人数以及气象要素等资料,探究了黄石市NO₂时空变化,采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型(GAM)定量评价NO₂对黄石市死亡病例和内科住院病例人数的影响,并对居民的暴露风险(R*)进行评估.结果表明:黄石市NO₂的浓度年内变化呈“U”型,春冬污染较严重,人群密集和工业区NO₂浓度稍高.在最佳滞后时间下,NO₂浓度每增加10μg/m³,非意外死亡、呼吸系统和循环系统病例的死亡人数在lag01、lag3、lag1时达到最大,增加百分比(ER)值分别为1.93%(95%CI:-2.10,6.14),2.13%(95%CI:-6.56,11.62),4.82%(95%CI:-0.22,10.02),内科疾病每日住院人数在lag05时达到最大,增加百分比(IP)值...     

增加投放量对贝类养殖水环境影响的模拟研究

以采集于大连市大窑湾海青岛养殖场的海湾扇贝、虾夷扇贝和牡蛎为研究对象,在实验室模拟增加养殖量的条件下,通过系列检测生态缸中海水的水化指标,探讨了养殖贝类对水环境的影响．实验结果表明：在贝类养殖的过程中,随着养殖生物量的增加,生物体排泄物随之增加,进而造成耗氧量、TOC、CODMn、BOD5和NH4^ -N浓度的增加,DO下降．排泄物的分解、氧化作用使水中pH轻度下降、无机氮浓度急剧增大．由生物污染造成的水质恶化,导致生物死亡率增大。