气候变化对我国水文水资源系统的影响研究

旨在介绍气候变化对我国水文水资源系统影响研究的进展、方法、技术及其优缺点,并分析气候变暖对我国水文水资源系统的影响结果,同时提出自己的一些建议。     

Estimating the potential impact of vegetation on the water cycle requires accurate soil water parameter estimation

It is well known that vegetation dynamics at the catchment scale depends on the prevailing weather and soil moisture conditions. Soil moisture, however, is not equally distributed in space due to differences in topography, weather patterns, soil properties and the type and amount of vegetation cover. To elucidate the complex interaction between vegetation and soil moisture, the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Smith et al., 2001), which provides estimations of vegetation dynamics, but does not consider lateral water fluxes was coupled with the hydrological TOPMODEL (cf. Beven, 2001) in order to be able to evaluate the importance of these lateral fluxes. The new model LG-TM was calibrated and validated in two climatically different mountain catchments. The estimations of runoff were good, when monthly and weekly time scales were considered, although the low flow periods at winter time were somewhat underestimated. The uncertainty in the climate induced change vegetation carbon storage caused by the uncertainty in soil parameters was up to 3-5 kg C m⁻² (depending on elevation and catchment), compared to the total change in vegetation carbon storage of 5-9 kg C m⁻². Therefore accurate estimates of the parameters influencing the water holding capacity of the soil, for example depth and porosity, are necessary when estimating future changes in vegetation carbon storage. Similarly, changes in plant transpiration due to climatic changes could be almost double as high (88 mm m⁻²) in the not calibrated model compared to the new model version (ca 50 mm m⁻² transpiration change). The uncertainties in these soil properties were found to be more important than the lateral water exchange between grid cells, even in steep topography at least for the temporal and spatial resolution used here.     

Particulate matter and downward flux in the Northern and Central Adriatic Sea

During four oceanographic cruises carried out in June 1996, February and June 1997, and February 1998, particulate matter characteristics and short-term downward fluxes measured with drifting sediment traps were studied in two areas of the Adriatic Sea. The investigated areas were located one south of the Po River delta, and the other in the central Adriatic between Pesaro and Ancona. In each area, a frontal system was detected and two stations inside and outside the front, i.e . in coastal and offshore areas, were selected. The particulate and dissolved matter revealed a higher concentration in the coastal areas with the highest values in the central Adriatic coastal zone in both February surveys. Total mass fluxes ranged within two orders of magnitude from 11 to 3139 r mg m d in the northern area and similarly from 20 to 3864 r mg r m r d in the southern one, with higher values in the coastal stations. The organic carbon accounted for 3-30% of total flux in the northern coastal station with higher values in June, whereas at the offshore station it ranged from 6 to 39% in summer, decreasing to values lower than 10% in February. In the southern zone the organic carbon content was less than 2% in winter and from 3 to 33% in summer. The organic carbon fluxes (1-82 and 6-71 r mg C m d in the northern and southern area) were comparable with others measured with drifting sediment traps in the same area, though much lower with respect to those measured with long-term moored sediment traps. The export of organic carbon from the photic layer (expressed as the percentage of primary production) in the northern area was less than 10% at the coastal station, reaching a maximum of 12% in the offshore area. In the central Adriatic area it was greater, with values reaching up to 66% at the coastal station in June 1996. The organic carbon loss via sedimentation from the POC pool was low ( i.e. <1.5% per day) at both stations in the northern zone, while in the southern area the export was generally greater, exceeding 10% in the offshore area.     

Developing sustainable water management scenarios by using thorough hydrologic analysis and environmental criteria

Wetlands constitute a significant source of life since they incorporate unique habitats with endemic and migrant species. They also contribute to the preservation of high global biodiversity and they are under protection according to EU legislation. Nevertheless, during the last century, significant degradation has been observed in wetlands, mainly due to intensification of agriculture and poor water management practices. Calcareous fens habitat with the endangered species Cladium mariscus and Carex spp. is an ecologically significant wetland that undergoes great ecological stresses globally, due to the irrational use of water resources. In Trichonis lake, Western Greece, this habitat has been under deterioration during the last 50 years due to the lack of a sustainable water management plan that has caused destabilization of the hydrologic balance and high water level fluctuations. This human induced hydrologic regime has led to seasonal shifting between drought and flooding which constitute unfavorable conditions for this fen habitat and as a result significant elimination of this ecosystem extent has occurred. This study has adopted technologically advanced scientific methods such as GIS applications and remote sensing techniques to quantify the existing water resources and formulate a sustainable management scheme by considering both anthropogenic water uses and environmental protection.     

Recommended design for more accurate duplication of natural conditions in salt marsh creation

Construction of 653 ha of salt marsh habitat from dredged material near the Aransas National Wildlife Refuge, Texas, has been proposed, with the goal of increasing the area of habitat available to endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana). We assessed prototype created wetlands, and their similarity to natural reference sites, in terms of topography, vegetation, and hydrology. The created sites were steeply sloped relative to natural sites and were dominated by monotypic stands of Spartina alterniflora. Natural sites were dominated by vegetation more tolerant of desiccation and hypersalinity and by unvegetated salt pans. Differences in vegetation communities and distributions of habitat types resulted from efforts to enhance habitat diversity in created marsh cells through manipulation of marsh topography. However, the scale at which this diversity occurred in natural marsh of the study area was not considered. When constructing wetlands in cellular configurations, we recommend creation of large complexes of adjoining, hydrologically linked, cells wherein the desired habitat diversity is created at the scale of the entire complex, rather than within a single cell. Suggested design modifications would increase the similarity of created marshes to natural reference sites, potentially improving habitat function.     

The Macquarie Marshes in Arid Australia and their waterbirds: A 50-year history of decline

We investigated the relationship between total annual flow of water in the Macquarie River and the extent of flooding in the northern part of the Macquarie Marshes and trends in waterbird populations from 1983 to 1993. The amount of water in the Macquarie River measured each year within the Macquarie Marshes explained about 86% of the variation in area flooded in the northern part of this wetland. This allowed use of long-term data on flow at Oxley, a gauge within the Macquarie Marshes, as an index to flooding. Annual flows at Oxley have decreased significantly for high and medium rainfall events in the catchment, despite no trend in rainfall between 1944 and 1993. The area flooded by large floods has contracted by at least 40–50% during the last 50 years (1944–1993). Water use has progressively increased upstream in the period, depriving the Macquarie Marshes of water: 51% of all water passing Dubbo each year, a gauge 100 km upstream, reached the Macquarie Marshes in the period 1944–1953, but by 1984–1993 this had declined to 21%. Numbers of species and density of waterbirds on the northern part of the Macquarie Marshes declined between 1983 and 1993. Three other wetlands, not affected by water abstractions, showed no declines. We believe the decline was due to wetland degradation as a result of decreased flooding. We estimated more than 88,000 waterbirds in the Macquarie Marshes in October 1984, establishing the site as an important wetland site in Australia. The extent and viability of this wetland will depend on maintaining or increasing the water supply.     

The hydrogeology of a tailings impoundment formed by central discharge of thickened tailings: implications for tailings management

The Kidd Creek Cu–Zn sulfide mine is located near Timmins, Ontario. Mill tailings are thickened and deposited as a slurry in a circular impoundment with an area of approximately 1200 ha. Deposition of tailings as a thickened slurry from a central discharge ramp results in a conical-shaped tailings deposit with low perimeter dykes, a uniform grain-size distribution, uniform and low hydraulic conductivity, and a tension-saturated zone above the water table up to 5 to 6 m thick. These characteristics provide benefits over conventionally disposed tailings with respect to tailings management. The thick tension-saturated zone within the tailings limits the thickness of unsaturated tailings that are susceptible to rapid sulfide oxidation. The conical shape of the deposit results in the formation of a recharge area near the centre of the impoundment and discharge in the peripheral areas. In contrast, the elevated nature of many conventional, unthickened tailings impoundments results in recharge over most of the surface of the impoundment, with discharge occurring outside the impoundment through large containment dykes. Three-dimensional pore water flow modelling suggests that approximately 90% of the total discharge from the thickened tailings occurs within the tailings impoundment. When discharge is confined within the impoundment, there is improved control over low-quality effluent, and an opportunity to design passive control measures to reduce treatment costs and minimize environmental impacts.     

An on-farm survey of spatial and temporal stratifications of 17β-estradiol concentrations

17β-estradiol (E2) is a natural estrogenic hormone found in animal manure and urine, which may cause endocrine disruption in sensitive organisms. 17β-Estradiol has been widely detected in the environment, and animal agriculture may be an important source. The objectives of this study were to investigate the potential sources and/or spatial and temporal characteristics contributing to detections of E2 at the farm-scale. Soil cores, segmented into 0.15 m increments, were taken down to the water table from four locations (three potential E2 sources and one control) at or around a swine (Sus scrofa domesticus) farm on five different dates between 2006 and 2007. Estradiol was quantified in the soil-water extracts using liquid chromatography-with tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS) analysis. Estradiol detections were widespread and found in 128 out of 345 extractions (37%). Concentrations ranged from 0 to 1910 ng L⁻¹ (porewater equivalents). A location that received field application of manure had significantly lower E2 concentrations compared to other locations. Also, the spring 2007 E2 concentrations were significantly higher than all other sample dates, perhaps related to climatic and hydrological events. Results suggested E2 was not directly related to manure sources, but was widespread in this environment. Where E2 was detected, highest concentrations favored the upper profile, while the greatest frequency of detections was in the lower profile and near the water table. Detections of E2 were associated with high organic mater contents in the upper profile and high sand contents in the lower profile. The study suggests that E2 is widespread in some soil environments, raising questions as to the source and mechanisms that facilitate its transport and mobility.     

Integrated model projections of climate change impacts on a North American lake

Climate change is likely to impact terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems via numerous physical and biological mechanisms. This study outlines a framework for projecting potential impacts of climate change on lakes using linked environmental models. Impacts of climate drivers on catchment hydrology and thermal balance in Onondaga Lake (New York State) are simulated using mechanistic models HSPF and UFILS4. Outputs from these models are fed into a lake ecosystem model, developed in AQUATOX. Watershed simulations project increases in the magnitude of peak flows and consequent increases in catchment nutrient export as the magnitude of extreme precipitation events increases. This occurs concurrently with a decrease in annual stream discharge as a result of increased evapotranspiration. Simulated lake water temperatures increase by as much as 5 °C during the 2040-2069 time period, accompanied by a prolonging of the duration of summer stratification. Projected changes include shifts in the timing of nutrient cycling between lake sediments and water column. Plankton taxa projected to thrive under climate change include green algae and Bosmina longirostris. Responses for species at higher trophic levels are mixed. Benthic macroinvertebrates may either prosper (zebra mussels) or decline (chironomids), while fish (e.g., gizzard shad) exhibit high seasonal variability without any clear trend.     

Impacts of climatic change on water and natural hazards in the Alps: Can current water governance cope with future challenges? Examples from the European “ACQWA” project

This paper reviews the possible future situation of the Rhone River in the Swiss part of its catchment. Physical processes in the Alps govern the behaviour of the Rhone from its source (Rhone Glacier) to the Lake of Geneva, and substantial changes are expected to occur in the amount and seasonality of precipitation, and in the response of snow and glaciers to a warming climate. As a result, discharge in the alpine part of the Rhone River is likely to undergo an increase in winter and early spring, but strongly decreases from late spring to late autumn. These changes in water regimes will certainly be accompanied by more frequent geomorphic hazards, related to increases in heavy precipitation events and the melting of permanently frozen grounds. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, and agriculture, while shifts in extreme events will have an impact on the vulnerability of infrastructure and a range of economic sectors and services. Projections of the future course of events can help in advance planning and decision making in order to alleviate some of the more negative consequences of climate and hydrological impacts on key economic sectors in the region. This paper will thus discuss issues related to current and future water governance in the region, whether water-related policies are sufficiently robust today to cope with what may be rapid changes in water availability and water use in coming decades, and to resolve possible rivalries between economic sectors that may be increasingly confronted with problems of water availability at critical times of the year.