Factors affecting the quantitative uncertainty of the estimated short-term intake. Part I—Calculation methods

ABSTRACT

The calculation of the combined uncertainty of the international estimated short-term intake (IESTI) of ethephon residues in apples is shown as an example. The ethephon residues in apples were reported by the Joint FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)/WHO (World Health Organization) Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR). The apple consumption data were taken from the IESTI (international short-term intake) calculation template used by the JMPR. The IESTI was calculated with the currently used method (case 2a) and a proposed one recommended by the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority)/RIVM (Dutch National Institute for Public Health) Scientific Workshop co-sponsored by FAO and WHO. In this example, the ratio of IESTI_proposed/IESTI_current and their combined relative uncertainty are about 2.8, and 1.7, respectively. The larger IESTI and uncertainty obtained with the proposed equation are the consequence of calculation only with the large portion (LP) instead of its combination with unit mass, and the MRL instead of the highest residue (HR). The LP is the major contributor to the combined uncertainty. Both the calculated IESTI and its combined uncertainty depend on the actual food – pesticide residue combination, and should be calculated for each case.     

2005年中国气态α HCH的人体暴露和健康风险分析

为评估由我国大气中α HCH所导致的人体健康风险,利用CanMETOP 模拟的2005年日均α HCH大气浓度,基于吸入因子和致癌风险进行研究。结果表明年吸入因子呈东部>西部,北部>南部的特征,东中和东北部地区的吸入因子分别主要由人口密度和α HCH大气浓度贡献,东中和东南部地区的个体健康损失小于东北地区,东中和东南部地区年内逐月吸入因子分配较为均匀,而东北地区主要集中的夏季,东北地区个体致癌风险系数明显高于中部和南部。推测由其它污染物所形成的暴露风险具有类似的时空分布。加之夏季东北地区集中降水所形成的湿沉降以及气温升高等因素,使摄食暴露和皮肤接触暴露增大,东北地区人群的复合暴露风险将显著大于其它地区     

Dietary patterns and blood levels of PCDDs, PCDFs, and dioxin-like PCBs in 1656 Japanese individuals

The association between dietary patterns and blood dioxin levels has not been fully investigated. The present study population consisted of 755 men and 901 women (aged 15-73 years) living in 90 different areas of 30 prefectures of Japan. Dietary habits were assessed by inquiring about the consumption frequency of 28 foods, food groups and beverages. In addition, the blood levels of 29 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzo-furans (PCDFs), and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyl (DL-PCBs) congeners were determined by high-resolution gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. The median total toxicity equivalent (TEQ) in the blood, which was calculated on the basis of the toxicity equivalency factors of WHO (2005), was 16 pg TEQ g⁻¹ lipid. Principal component analysis identified five dietary patterns: Healthy diet (high intake of vegetables and fruits); Meat/High fat intake (high intake of meat, meat products, and eggs); Seafood and Alcohol (high intake of fish, shellfish, and alcoholic beverages); Miscellaneous; and Milk products and Alcohol intake (high intake of milk, Milk products, and alcoholic beverages). After adjusting for sex, age, body mass index, and smoking habits, the Seafood and Alcohol pattern scores were significantly related to higher blood levels of total TEQ and PCDDs/PCDFs/DL-PCBs, and the Milk products and Alcohol pattern scores were correlated with higher blood levels of DL-PCBs. More detailed analysis showed that the intake frequencies for alcoholic beverages and seafood were independently and positively associated with total TEQ and the TEQ of PCDFs and DL-PCBs. The association between alcoholic beverage intake and PCDDs was also significant. Analysis of dietary patterns may be useful for identifying the dietary characteristics of individuals with a high dioxin body burden.     

Does the Temporal Resolution of Precipitation Input Influence the Simulated Hydrological Components Employing the SWAT Model?

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of sub‐daily precipitation time steps on model performance and hydrological components by applying the Green and Ampt infiltration method using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Precipitation was measured at a resolution of 0.1 mm and aggregated to 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐min time steps. Daily discharge data over a 10‐year period were used to calibrate and validate the model. Following a global sensitivity analysis, relevant parameters were optimized through an automatic calibration procedure using SWAT‐CUP for each time step. Daily performance statistics were almost equal among all four time steps (NSE ≈ 0.47). Discharge mainly consisted of groundwater flow (55%) and tile flow (42%), in reasonable proportions for the investigated catchment. In conclusion, model outputs were almost identical, showing simulations responded nearly independently of the chosen precipitation time step. This held true for (1) the selection of sensitive parameters, (2) performance statistics, (3) the shape of the hydrographs, and (4) flow components. However, a scenario analysis revealed that the precipitation time step becomes important when saturated hydraulic conductivities are low and curve numbers are high. The study suggests that there is no need in using precipitation time steps <1 h for lowland catchments dominated by soils with a low surface runoff potential if daily flow values are being considered. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Evaluation of a Watershed Model for Estimating Daily Flow Using Limited Flow Measurements1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was evaluated for estimation of continuous daily flow based on limited flow measurements in the Upper Oyster Creek (UOC) watershed. SWAT was calibrated against limited measured flow data and then validated. The Nash‐Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and mean relative error values of daily flow estimations were 0.66 and 15% for calibration, and 0.56 and 4% for validation, respectively. Also, further evaluation of the model’s estimation of flow at multiple locations was conducted with parametric paired t‐test and nonparametric sign test at a 95% confidence level. Among the five main stem stations, four stations were statistically shown to have good agreement between predicted and measured flows. SWAT underestimated the flow of the fifth main stem station possibly because of the existence of complex flood control measures near to the station. SWAT estimated the daily flow at one tributary station well, but with relatively large errors for the other two tributaries. The spatial pattern of predicted flows matched the measured ones well. Overall, it was concluded from the graphical comparisons and statistical analyses of the model results that SWAT was capable of reproducing continuous daily flows based on limited flow data as is the case in the UOC watershed.     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls in food and feed in the Lithuanian market

Foods and feeds were analyzed during the period of 2007–2014 employing validated and accredited methods based on gas chromatography–high-resolution mass spectrometry. Sampling has been carried out in-line with national monitoring programs as well as during import controls into Lithuania. Food samples such as eggs, milk, beef, pork, poultry, fats of plant and animal origin, fish, cod liver, and feed samples such as premixes, feeds of plant origin, compound feed, mineral feed, vegetable oil, and fish meals were analyzed. Most of the samples exhibited concentrations below maximum limits, except cod liver. Health impacts were assessed in respect to human daily intakes. Data between groups are compared.     

The health risk assessment of organochlorine pesticides in smoked fish products available in Szczecin,Poland

The aim of this study was to determine the concentration of organochlorine pesticides [HCH and isomers (α, β, γ), aldrin, dieldrin, endrin, heptachlor and heptachlor epoxide and DDT and its metabolites (op’-DDD, pp’-DDD, op’-DDT, pp’-DDE, pp’-DDT] in smoked fish. Analysis was made of 12 typical smoked fish products that are the most popular among customers from the city of Szczecin, Poland. Pesticide residues were found in all samples of smoked fish. The smoked sprat and cold-smoked Baltic salmon were the most contaminated smoked fish products in terms of chlorine pesticides. The sum of DDT metabolites ranged from 1.48 (smoked mackerel) to 35.53 ng/g wet weight (smoked sprat), with the lowest concentrations found for op’-DDT and the highest for pp’-DDE. The level of heptachlor epoxide isomer B was low and ranged from 0.06 ± 0.01 (smoked eel) to 0.27 ± 0.07 ng/g w.w. (smoked sprat). The content of heptachlor was 0.48–1.99 ng/g w.w. Concentration of endrin was higher compared to other pesticides, ranged from 1.50 (cold-smoked salmon fillet) to 16.84 ng/g w.w (hot-smoked warehou). The contamination of smoked products was significantly low and poses no risk to the health of consumers provided that they eat a diverse diet. The concentration of organochlorine pesticides in the analysed products was below the standards accepted in European countries.     

Pesticide residue dynamics in passion fruits: Comparing field trial and modelling results

We evaluated the exposure to pesticides from the consumption of passion fruits and subsequent human health risks by combining several methods: (i) experimental field studies including the determination of pesticide residues in/on passion fruits, (ii) dynamic plant uptake modelling, and (iii) human health risk assessment concepts. Eight commonly used pesticides were applied onto passion fruits cultivated in Colombia. Pesticide concentrations were measured periodically (between application and harvest) in whole fruits and fruit pulp. Measured concentrations were compared with predicted residues calculated with a dynamic and crop-specific pesticide uptake model, namely dynamiCROP. The model accounts for the time between pesticide application and harvest, the time between harvest and consumption, the amount of spray deposition on plant surfaces, uptake processes, dilution due to crop growth, degradation in plant components, and reduction due to food processing (peeling). Measured and modelled residues correspond well (r² = 0.88-0.99), with all predictions falling within the 90% confidence interval of the measured values. A mean error of 43% over all studied pesticides was observed between model estimates and measurements. The fraction of pesticide applied during cultivation that is eventually ingested by humans is on average 10⁻⁴-10⁻⁶, depending on the time period between application and ingestion and the processing step considered. Model calculations and intake fractions via fruit consumption based on experimental data corresponded well for all pesticides with a deviation of less than a factor of 2. Pesticide residues in fruits measured at recommended harvest dates were all below European Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) and therefore do not indicate any violation of international regulatory thresholds.     

Residues of persistent organic pollutants in frequently-consumed vegetables and assessment of human health risk based on consumption of vegetables in Huizhou,South China

Concentrations of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), 16 phthalate esters (PAEs), eight organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and seven polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in 17 frequently-consumed varieties of vegetables collected from 48 sites in Huizhou were measured. Concentrations of PAHs and PAEs of leafy vegetables were higher than those of gourd and fruit vegetables but it was the opposite for OCPs and PCBs. A questionnaire of 450 local residents on vegetable consumption showed that the total vegetable ingested rates of females and males were 278.80 g person⁻¹ d⁻¹ and 282.92 g person⁻¹ d⁻¹, respectively. The weight-specific daily intakes of pollutants by females were higher than those by males because of differences in body weight. Twenty-seven pollutants were used to assess the potential risk to human health by calculating target hazard quotient (THQ) values. Results showed that the risk to females was higher than for males. OCPs were the major contributors to the risk for both females and males. The main risks were from consumption of eggplant, Chinese lettuce and luffa and were significantly related to the contents of di-nonyl phthalate, β-hexachlorocyclohexane, γ-hexachlorocyclohexane, p,p-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and p,p-dichlorodiphenyl dichloroethane in vegetables. Although the THQ values induced by individual pollutants were relatively low, the total THQ values induced by 27 pollutants were above 1 in some administrative regions of Huizhou, which might give cause for concern.