安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型

为发展安全科学原理和给事故防控与调查提供新的方法,根据变化对系统安全的影响机制,开展安全降变原理及事故致因新模型研究。首先,提出安全降变原理并解析其内涵及研究意义。其次,基于安全降变原理,给出不同层级安全系统变化的分类实例,并对作业场所事故及其致因重新定义和分类。再次,构建基于安全降变原理的C-S-R事故致因新模型。最后,基于事故案例分析,验证所提出的C-S-R事故致因新模型与安全降变原理的有效性。结果表明,各级安全系统中自发或是受联动的变化超出系统的变化承受水平时,将导致事故的发生。经事故案例分析验证可知,安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型具有充分的实用性。     

Archaeological Evidence of Validity of Fish Populations on Unexploited Reefs as Proxy Targets for Modern Populations

Reef‐fish management and conservation is hindered by a lack of information on fish populations prior to large‐scale contemporary human impacts. As a result, relatively pristine sites are often used as conservation baselines for populations near sites affected by humans. This space‐for‐time approach can only be validated by sampling assemblages through time. We used archaeological remains to evaluate whether the remote, uninhabited Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) might provide a reasonable proxy for a lightly exploited baseline in the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). We used molecular and morphological techniques to describe the taxonomic and size composition of the scarine parrotfish catches present in 2 archaeological assemblages from the MHI, compared metrics of these catches with modern estimates of reproductive parameters to evaluate whether catches represented by the archaeological material were consistent with sustainable fishing, and evaluated overlap between size structures represented by the archaeological material and modern survey data from the MHI and the NWHI to assess whether a space‐for‐time substitution is reasonable. The parrotfish catches represented by archaeological remains were consistent with sustainable fishing because they were dominated by large, mature individuals whose average size remained stable from prehistoric (AD approximately 1400–1700) through historic (AD 1700–1960) periods. The ancient catches were unlike populations in the MHI today. Overlap between the size structure of ancient MHI catches and modern survey data from the NWHI or the MHI was an order of magnitude greater for the NWHI comparison, a result that supports the validity of using the NWHI parrotfish data as a proxy for the MHI before accelerated, heavy human impacts in modern times. Evidencia Arqueológica de la Validez de Poblaciones de Peces en Arrecifes Sin Explotar como Objetivos de Apoderamiento para Poblaciones Actuales     

Water sharing agreements sustainable to reduced flows

By signing a water sharing agreement (WSA), countries agree to release an amount of river water in exchange for a negotiated compensation. We examine the vulnerability of such agreements to reduced water flows. Among all WSAs that are acceptable to riparian countries, we find out the one which is self-enforced under the most severe drought scenarios. The so-called upstream incremental WSA assigns to each country its marginal contribution to its followers in the river. Its mirror image, the downstream incremental WSA, is not sustainable to reduced flow at the source. Self-enforcement problems can be solved by setting water releases and compensations contingent to water flow. We apply our analysis to the Aral Sea Basin. We compute the upstream incremental compensations for the Bishkek agreement and asses its vulnerability with historical flows.     

Parks versus PES: Evaluating direct and incentive-based land conservation in Mexico

Protected areas (PAs) and payments for ecosystem services (PES) are the top two mechanisms available for countries to achieve international REDD agreements, yet there are few empirical comparisons of their effects. We estimate the impacts of PAs and PES on forest conservation, poverty reduction, and population change at the locality level in Mexico in the 2000s. Both policies conserved forest, generating an approximately 20–25% reduction in expected forest cover loss. PES created statistically significant but small poverty alleviation while PAs had overall neutral impacts on livelihoods. Estimates by individual policy type for the same level of deforestation risk indicate that biosphere reserves and PES balanced conservation and livelihood goals better than strict protected areas or mixed-use areas. This suggests that both direct and incentive-based instruments can be effective, and that policies combining sustainable financing, flexible zoning, and recognition of local economic goals are more likely to achieve conservation without harming livelihoods.     

Village-scale reserves in the forest frontier regions of Chenes and Calakmul,Mexico

ABSTRACT

Sketch-map-facilitated interviews were conducted in 23 villages in two adjacent regions in the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico – the Maya (and increasingly Mennonite) forest-agriculture mosaic of the Chenes, and the late-20^th-century-settlement forest frontier of Calakmul – to determine the frequency and typology of local-scale reserves, including the external (e.g. Payments for Environmental Services programs) and internal sources of their generation. 9% of the study communities are found to satisfy the author’s criteria for deliberate, autochthonous reserves. The static polygon reserve and static map are found to have limited value for understanding the evolving cultural ecologies of these regions. Alternative approaches are discussed, particularly those employed by geographers.     

A hybrid decision-making approach based on FCM and MOORA for occupational health and safety risk analysis

IntroductionWith the development of industries and increased diversity of their associated hazards, the importance of identifying these hazards and controlling the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks has also dramatically augmented. Currently, there is a serious need for a risk management system to identify and prioritize risks with the aim of providing corrective/preventive measures to minimize the negative consequences of OHS risks. In fact, this system can help the protection of employees’ health and reduction of organizational costs. Method: The present study proposes a hybrid decision-making approach based on the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), and Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) for assessing and prioritizing OHS risks. After identifying the risks and determining the values of the risk assessment criteria via the FMEA technique, the attempt is made to determine the weights of criteria based on their causal relationships through FCM and the hybrid learning algorithm. Then, the risk prioritization is carried out using the MOORA method based on the decision matrix (the output of the FMEA) and the weights of the criteria (the output of the FCM). Results: The results from the implementation of the proposed approach in a manufacturing company reveal that the score at issue can overcome some of the drawbacks of the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) in the conventional FMEA, including lack of assignment the different relative importance to the assessment criteria, inability to take into account other important management criteria, lack of consideration of causal relationships among criteria, and high dependence of the prioritization on the experts’ opinions, which finally provides a full and distinct risk prioritization.     

分析大气环境中PM2.5的研究进展与治理

本文主要针对大气环境中PM2.5展开深入研究和论述,先介绍了大气环境中PM2.5的定义和危害,然后结合重量法、光散射法以及β射线吸收法等,对PM2.5的检测技术进行了深入分析,最后提出了几点治理措施,比如加大法治建设和政府监管力度、降低机动车尾气排放、控制工业废气排放、增加植被、加强区域联防联控机制的构建等,以对大气环境中PM2.5含量进行合理化控制,并将空气污染指数保持在可控范围内,避免大气环境污染问题的出现。     

Negotiating environmental agreements under ratification constraints

We analyze the impact of ratification constraints on the optimal terms of international environmental agreements (IEAs). For this, we combine the literature on IEAs with the public choice literature on two-level games. By also incorporating uncertain preferences of the pivotal voter in the ratification stage, we make several important contributions: (i) we contribute to a more realistic modeling of the temporal structure of international agreements, (ii) we show a surprising, yet intuitive non-monotonic relationship between the optimal commitment level and the variance of ratification decisions, (iii) we identify reasons to expect a larger number of countries to join international negotiations than predicted by most of the coalition formation literature based on a representative agent model. Ratification constraints thereby can improve the welfare gains from stable international agreements.     

“引江济太”过程中长江-望虞河-贡湖氮、磷输入特征研究

为了解"引江济太"调水过程中长江、望虞河对贡湖营养盐输入特征,于2013年8月和2013年12月引水期间对20个采样点各形态N、P质量浓度的沿程和时间变化以及百分含量占比进行研究.结果表明,两个不同的引水期,长江-望虞河-贡湖段水体各形态N、P沿程和时间变化均表现不一:长江引水经望虞河入贡湖后,水体NO-2-N、NO-3-N、NH+4-N和TN质量浓度均较长江和望虞河段有不同程度的降低,而贡湖段DON质量浓度显著高于长江和望虞河段,但长江-望虞河段水体各形态N中NO-3-N质量浓度最高.长江和望虞河TP质量浓度总体表现平稳,而各形态P质量浓度在两个引水时期内有所变化.从时间变化来看,2013年8月水体的DON和TP质量浓度总体上高于12月;而NO-3-N和DOP质量浓度总体上低于12月.总体来说,两个引水时期内,NO-3-N和TPP是望虞河经长江引水的主要N、P形态;而贡湖经望虞河水体输入的N、P主要形态分别为NO-3-N、PO3-4-P和TPP.     

加强土壤污染防治资金和工程项目管理的建议

文章首先分析了中央财政土壤污染防治专项资金的性质,结合资金管理办法进一步阐明了资金使用范围、资金分配方式、绩效导向和信息公开要求。分析了部分省份开展的土壤污染防治工程项目、资金管理制度建设的现状和获得2016年第一批土壤污染防治专项资金支持项目的情况,对比指出了在支持重点、支持方式上的不同特点。基于主要问题,从加强土壤污染防治项目储备库建设、开展项目与资金规范管理的制度建设、明确不同对象的组织管理职责、重视咨询服务队伍和专家队伍建设等四个方面,阐述了加强土壤污染防治项目组织和资金管理的建议,为相关环境管理部门提供决策参考。