Improving inverse model fitting in trees—Anisotropy,multiplicative effects,and Bayes estimation

Model fitting for individual-based effects in forests has some problems. Because samples measuring the separate influence of each individual are rarely available, the measured value in the sample represents the influence of all surrounding individual trees. Therefore, it is helpful to build inverse models that use the spatial pattern of the variable as well as that of the source trees. For example, since seed dispersal is influenced by wind effects, a model is discussed describing anisotropic effects to ensure an unbiased estimate of the total fruit number. Further, we present a model describing the absorption of radiation by trees. In this case a multiplicative combination of individual effects yields the total effect. Our approach uses logarithmic transformations of the original data to model multiplicative combinations as sum of transformed single effects. For fitting model parameters we propose an approach based on Bayesian statistics, to ensure ecologically interpretable parameters.     

Implications of simultaneity in a physical damage function

A modeler must often rely on highly simplified representations of complex physical systems when analyzing associated economic issues. Herein, we consider a management problem in which a bioeconomic system exhibits simultaneity in processes governing productivity and damage. In this case, it may benefit the producer to sacrifice productivity to reduce the costs associated with increased damage. We specify empirically a structural damage relationship that explains the biological process by which an invasive species damages a host and estimate the structural model and its reduced form with an exceptional dataset on infestation of olives by the olive fruit fly. We contrast the results of these models with the approach typically taken in the economic literature, which expresses damage as a function of pest density. The population-based approach introduces significantly greater bias into the individual grower's choice of damage-control inputs than estimates based on the structural model.     

Characterizing sources of nitrate leaching from an irrigated dairy farm in Merced County, California

Dairy farms comprise a complex landscape of groundwater pollution sources. The objective of our work is to develop a method to quantify nitrate leaching to shallow groundwater from different management units at dairy farms. Total nitrate loads are determined by the sequential calibration of a sub-regional scale and a farm-scale three-dimensional groundwater flow and transport model using observations at different spatial scales. These observations include local measurements of groundwater heads and nitrate concentrations in an extensive monitoring well network, providing data at a scale of a few meters and measurements of discharge rates and nitrate concentrations in a tile-drain network, providing data integrated across multiple farms. The various measurement scales are different from the spatial scales of the calibration parameters, which are the recharge and nitrogen leaching rates from individual management units. The calibration procedure offers a conceptual framework for using field measurements at different spatial scales to estimate recharge N concentrations at the management unit scale. It provides a map of spatially varying dairy farming impact on groundwater nitrogen. The method is applied to a dairy farm located in a relatively vulnerable hydrogeologic region in California. Potential sources within the dairy farm are divided into three categories, representing different manure management units: animal exercise yards and feeding areas (corrals), liquid manure holding ponds, and manure irrigated forage fields. Estimated average nitrogen leaching is 872 kg/ha/year, 807 kg/ha/year and 486 kg/ha/year for corrals, ponds and fields respectively. Results are applied to evaluate the accuracy of nitrogen mass balances often used by regulatory agencies to assess groundwater impacts. Calibrated leaching rates compare favorably to field and farm scale nitrogen mass balances. These data and interpretations provide a basis for developing improved management strategies.     

GIS网络服务区分析在重庆市主城区夜间施工噪声投诉处置中应用

通过对重庆市主城区夜间施工噪声投诉处置现状分析,以主城区道路交通网络、环境监察机构分布等数据专题建模,采用G IS的网络服务区功能的分析结果,提出车辆调度合理化建议方案,为环境监察部门的夜间施工噪声投诉处置车辆部署调度提供辅助技术支持。     

APPLICATION OF A SEDIMENT ROUTING MODEL TO A MIDDLE EUROPEAN WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: A simulation model that computes sediment yield due to sheet and rill erosion at the outlet of a large watershed requires daily precipitation and the soil, topographic, and vegetative characteristics of the watershed. An important problem, particularly in a large watershed, is the transport of sediment produced in the sub-watersheds to the outlet of the whole watershed. This problem is approached mathematically by a sediment routing model that is used as a component of the total model.     

WATER USE REDUCTIONS FROM RETROFIHNG INDOOR WATER FIXTURES1

ABSTRACT: A water use model was developed to estimate water savings from installation of low-flow showerheads and toilet displacement devices in residential housing. The model measures household water use in per capita terms with adjustments for age of occupants, household income, if occupants responsible for direct payment of water bill, and type of water fixtures. Detailed data on 308 single family residences involved with a pilot retrofit program in the Seattle, Washington, area were analyzed. We estimated per capita indoor water use to decline by 6.4 and 2.1 percent from complete installation of low-flow showerheads and toilet displacement devices, respectively.     

Integrated assessment: Missing link in the acid rain debate?

The United States is finding it difficult to develop a coherent policy on acid rain. Despite more than a decade of scientific research and policy initiatives, no clear course of action has been identified. This article argues that what is missing is an integrated assessment of the scientific knowledge that will guide the political process. The role of the integrated assessment is described, and a conceptual framework presented that would accomplish the desired goal. Currently available acid rain assessment models are compared against this framework and found to be less than satisfactory. The article concludes by stressing the opportunity now available to the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to perform such an assessment and break the logjam.     

ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF LONG-TERM STREAM TEMPERATURES ON THE STEAMBOAT CREEK BASIN,OREGON: IMPLICATIONS FOR LAND USE AND FISH HABITAT1

ABSTRACT: Steamboat Creek basin is an important source of timber and provides crucial spawning and rearing habitat for anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Because stream temperatures are near the upper limit of tolerance for the survival of juvenile steelhead, the possible long-term effect of clear-cut logging on stream temperatures was assessed. Twenty-year (1969–1989) records of summer stream temperature and flow from four tributaries and two reaches of Steamboat Creek and Boulder Creek (a nearby unlogged watershed) were analyzed. Logging records for the Steamboat Creek basin and air temperature records also were used in the analysis. A time-series model of the components of stream temperature (seasonal cycle of solar radiation, air temperature, streamflow, an autoregressive term of order 1, and a linear trend variable) was fitted to the water-temperature data. The linear trend variable was significant in all the fitted models except Bend Creek (a tributary fed by cool ground-water discharge) and Boulder Creek. Because no trends in either climate (i.e., air temperature) or streamflow were found in the data, the trend variable was associated with the pre-1969 loss and subsequent regrowth of riparian vegetation and shading canopies.     

EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT OF POPULATIONS USING ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING,DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS,AND GIS1

ABSTRACT: Simulation of ground-water flow and fate of contaminants in the subsurface environment constitutes a major phase of most environmental assessment and site remediation studies. These simulation studies yield information on spatial and temporal distributions of contaminants in the subsurface media. An important use of this information is to conduct exposure assessment studies. Spatial and temporal distributions of both chemical concentrations and exposed populations render this integrated exposure analysis task rather difficult. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), on the other hand, provide a platform in which layered, spatially distributed databases can be manipulated with ease, thereby simplifying exposure analysis tasks significantly. In this paper, we describe procedures that combine the simulation models and demographic databases under a GIS platform to automate the exposure assessment phase of a typical health assessment study. Procedures developed herein significantly simplify the post-processing phase of the analysis, and render the overall task more ‘user friendly.’ A site-specific application is included as a demonstration of the proposed process.     

CONFLICTING PERSPECTWES ABOUT DETECTION LIMITS AND ABOUT THE CENSORING OF ENVIRONMENTAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: Current conventions for reporting analytical results from environmental samples brings the objectives of laboratory scientists into conflict with those of environmental scientists. The objective of chemical analyses is to provide estimates of the true composition of samples. Reported results must reflect the analytical uncertainty. Current conventions require left-censoring of those results below the Limit of Detection. The objective of statistical interpretation of environmental data is to provide estimates of the characteristics of ecosystems. Such statistical analyses are often confounded by left-censoring of analytical results. We review the different points of view and propose a compromise which recognizes these conflicting perspectives.