江汉平原湿地功能下降与洪涝灾害关系分析

建国以来，江汉平原湿地面积及其生态功能发生了很大的变化，根据史志记载和气候资料，对江汉平原洪涝灾害的发生规律和变化趋势进行了分析，总结出江汉平原洪涝灾害频率趋高、江河湖高水位频率明显增加、外洪内涝日益严重的变化特点。据此，从时间上探讨了湿地变化与洪涝灾害之间的联系，发现历史和近代洪涝灾害的频发期与相应时期的围垦和江堤修筑有较好的对应。结合国土资源部土地变更调查数据分析了近10年来江汉平原湖泊湿地的主要转移途径，从空间上探讨了湿地动态变化与江汉平原洪涝灾害发生之间的内在联系，研究结果表明江汉平原洪涝灾害的发生和湿地面积的减少及其功能的退化之间存在着很好的相关性，从而进一步证实了湿地的围垦和退化是导致其调蓄能力降低，引发洪涝灾害加剧等负页环境效应的一个重要原因。     

Individual dispersal status influences space use of conspecific residents in the common lizard, Lacerta vivipara

The effects of immigration on the behaviour of residents may have important implications for the local population characteristics. A manipulative laboratory experiment with yearlings of the common lizard (Lacerta vivipara) was performed to test whether the introduction of dispersing or philopatric individuals influences the short-term spacing behaviour of resident individuals. Staged encounters were carried out to induce interactions within dyads. The home cage of each responding individual was connected by a corridor to an unfamiliar “arrival cage” to measure the latency to leave their own home cage after each encounter. Our results showed that the time that pairs spent in close proximity was longer when a dispersing individual was introduced in the home cage. The latency to leave the home cage was longer after the introduction of a dispersing individual. These response variables were not influenced by the relative body sizes of contestants nor by the level of aggression towards each other. In contrast, the aggressive response was significantly influenced by the residency asymmetry established experimentally (“owner” of the home cage vs introduced individual). Our results suggest that the space use by resident individuals is influenced by the dispersal status of conspecifics. The potential ultimate causes driving this effect are discussed.     

A multi-agent simulation to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in southern France

A multi-agent simulation (MAS) was developed to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue in southern France, a non-endemic area where mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles (Culicidae) live. The contact rate between people and potential malaria vectors, or the human biting rate, is one of the key factor to predict the risk of re-emergence of malaria, would the parasite be introduced in the region. Our model (called MALCAM) represents the different agents that could influence malaria transmission in the Camargue – people, mosquitoes, animal hosts and the landscape – in a spatially explicit environment. The model simulates spatial and temporal variations in human biting rate at the landscape scale. These variations depend on the distribution of people and potential vectors, their behaviour and their interactions. A land use/cover map was used as a cellular-spatial support for the movements of and interactions between mobile agents. The model was tested for its sensitivity to variations in parameter values, and for the agreement between field observations and model predictions. The MALCAM model provides a tool to better understand the interactions between the multiple agents of the disease transmission system, and the land use and land cover factors that control the spatial heterogeneity in these interactions. It allows testing hypotheses and scenarios related to disease dynamics by varying the value of exogenous biological, geographical, or human factors. This application of agent-based modelling to a human vector-borne disease can be adapted to different diseases and regions.     

可持续环境与自然资源发展核算

对自然资源耗减价值的核算范围、核算原理、核算方法及环境污染损失价值时间长度的确定进行了论述。为准确的核算绿色GDP,研究资源、环境与经济发展之间的关系,提供了准确的数量依据。     

Eco-environmental information system of Tianjin City─Design, implementation and applications

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川中丘陵区典型土地利用方式下磷素迁移的初步研究

通过野外定位观测,对川中丘陵区坡耕地、水田与林地地表径流水中磷素迁移形态、迁移通量进行了初步研究。结果表明,坡耕地、林地磷素迁移以颗粒吸附态为主,水田磷素迁移以水溶性磷为主,所有土地利用类型径流中总磷含量已超过水体富营养化的标准。坡耕地、水田和林地地表径流水中磷迁移的通量分别为0.88 kg/(hm2.a),0.15 kg/(hm2.a)与0.33 kg/(hm2.a)。     

福建省龙海市土地利用空间分布影响因子的尺度效应分析

土地利用在不同的规模尺度上具有不同的特征,某个研究尺度上的影响因子可能在其它尺度上并不发生作用。论文运用统计方法与GIS技术从自然环境、社会经济以及基础设施条件各方面分析福建省龙海市土地利用空间分布影响因素及其尺度效应。综合考虑9种主要的土地利用方式和23个候选影响因子,其中土地利用数据来自2000年11∶0000土地利用详查数据,地形数据来自15∶0000DEM,而社会经济统计数据如人口分布来自以乡镇为统计单元的统计年鉴,因此必须根据其空间分布与影响因子的关系进行空间化处理。采用的基本研究单元为100m×100m,在此基础上生成200m×200m,300m×300m～2000m×2000m多个空间尺度序列数据图层。通过分别构建不同聚合规模上的土地利用空间分布驱动模型,探讨了福建省龙海市土地利用空间分布影响因子的尺度规模效应。研究表明,不仅模型的解释能力会随聚合规模发生变化,影响因子本身及其影响系数也随研究尺度发生不同程度的变化,呈现出显著的尺度依赖性规律。龙海市主要地类受坡度、海拔高程等地形条件的严格限制,而地形因素是不容易随时间发生改变的,因此自然条件优越的地区适合多种用地类型,因而将是用地矛盾的焦点。     

基于InVEST-PLUS模型的碳储量空间关联性及预测——以广东省为例

构建土地利用碳储量数据库,基于InVEST模型Carbon模块,得到广东省1990~2020年碳储量时空分布情况.用Moran’s I指数和Getis-Ord Gi^*分析格网尺度下碳储量时空分布特征,用Anselin Local Moran’s I得到LISA集聚图.然后运用PLUS模型和14个土地利用驱动因子预测2050年土地利用及其碳储量分布.结果表明,土地利用变化直接影响区域碳储量高低,林地、草地等具有生态服务功能地类碳密度最高,分别是188.44,329.34Mg/hm².碳储量空间格局整体呈现出中部低、北部高、东西中等的特点.碳储量空间分布特征与土地利用特征一致,碳储量显著高值集聚区域分布在建设用地少、生态用地多且连片的粤北地区,显著低值区域分布在国土开发强度和生态用地破碎化程度高的珠三角地带.在自然发展情景下,到2050年广东省土地利用碳储量将减少4327.21万Mg,随着国土空间进一步开发,环珠江口沿岸城市碳储量持续下降.增加植被生态系统碳储量,是实现碳中和的重要手段之一.要继续维持粤北山区生态保护屏障的重要地位,减缓珠三角城市土地开发强度,提高建设用地集约节约能力,形成平衡协调的土地利用和碳储量格局.