Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment1

Shrestha, Rajesh R., Yonas B. Dibike, and Terry D. Prowse, 2011. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 74‐89. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00592.x Abstract: This paper presents a modeling study on climate‐induced changes in hydrologic and nutrient fluxes in the Upper Assiniboine catchment, located in the Lake Winnipeg watershed. The hydrologic and agricultural chemical yield model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to model a 21‐year baseline (1980‐2000) and future (2042‐2062) periods with model forcings for future climates derived from three regional climate models (RCMs) and their ensemble means. The modeled future scenarios reveal that potential future changes in the climatic regime are likely to modify considerably hydrologic and nutrient fluxes. The effects of future changes in climatic variables, especially precipitation and temperature, are clearly evident in the resulting snowmelt and runoff regimes. The future hydrologic scenarios consistently show earlier onsets of spring snowmelt and discharge peaks, and higher total runoff volumes. The simulated nutrient loads closely match the dynamics of the future runoff for both nitrogen and phosphorus, in terms of earlier timing of peak loads and higher total loads. However, nutrient concentrations could decrease due to the higher rate of runoff increase. Overall, the effects of these changes on the nutrient transport regime need to be considered together with possible future changes in land use, crop type, fertilizer application, and transformation processes in the receiving water bodies.     

Water Quality and Land Use Changes in the Alafia and Hillsborough River Watersheds,Florida, USA1

Abstract: Spatial distribution of land use can have a substantial effect on surface and groundwater quality. Our objective was to test for trends in flow components and water quality related to changes in land use in the Alafia and Hillsborough River watersheds in Florida, USA, over the period 1974‐2007. In addition, water quality statistics were evaluated in the perspective of numeric water quality criteria and proposed reclassification of segments of the Alafia River. Trends in 10 water quality parameters and three discharge variables were evaluated using a nonparametric trend detection test. Results of land use analysis indicated substantial urbanization and loss of agricultural land in the study area. Discharge variables did not exhibit significant trends, whereas trends in the majority of water quality concentrations were negative or nonsignificant with total nitrogen and total Kjeldahl nitrogen as exceptions showing positive trends. Changes in nutrient pathways could not be clearly identified. Considering recently promulgated numeric nutrient criteria and standards for dissolved fluoride, much of the Alafia River was found to be out of compliance. While there were land use changes and changes in water quality over the study period, it was difficult to identify a direct cause‐effect relationship. Responses to regulatory efforts, such as the Clean Water Act and improvements in phosphate mining practices, may have had greater impacts on water quality than changes in land use.     

小流域视角下生态—经济价值评估及补偿机制——以辽宁庄河市为例

为响应生态文明建设对生态效益和经济效益综合增长的需求,丰富国土空间研究的自然生态视角,以辽宁省庄河市为例,研究小流域地区生态价值核算及经济补偿问题。在坚持生态完整和划清事权原则下,通过叠加小流域区和行政区边界,构建“县域—小流域—次小流域—微流域+村域”分层级分单元的空间体系。在生态完整的小流域及次小流域单元尺度上,通过生态—经济相对优先模型计算单元间的生态补偿关系;在“微流域+村域”的基础单元尺度上,以国土空间保护与开发评价为基础,通过分单元分类管控的方式,确保生态补偿的实施和落地。通过构建生态—经济价值评估体系,探索适用于山地丘陵地区的国土空间保护与开发平衡发展的方式。     

SWAT与MIKE21耦合模型及其在澎溪河流域的应用

结合SWAT分布式模型研究污染负荷的优势和MIKE21模型对水动力水质先进的模拟技术,构建SWAT与MIKE21耦合模型。根据澎溪河地形、土壤、植被、气象、水文、水质资料,在空间上建立流域SWAT水文单元与MIKE21水动力模型边界的连接,在量值上建立SWAT模型各水文单元污染物负荷输出量与MIKE21模型污染浓度输入量之间的分配关系,研究澎溪河流域输沙量、氮、磷负荷量和水污染。模拟结果表明：2009年3月至2010年3月澎溪河渠马、高阳、黄石、双江大桥4个断面的总氮、总磷浓度和叶绿素a含量的模拟值与实测值具有较好的一致性,澎溪河回水区水质为中营养~中富营养状态,水体氮、磷等营养盐浓度主要受面源污染的影响。SWAT与MIKE21耦合模型可靠性好,适合于流域水污染研究     

Anthropogenic influences on a mediterranean Nature Reserve: modelling and forecasting

The lagoon of Biguglia (northeastern Corsica) is one of a number Nature Reserve. Anthropogenic activities are increasing over its watershed however. The present study aims to examine the state of health of the lagoon with the example of two pollutants (Cd and Cu). Water samples were collected in spring and summer 1997. The trace metal fluxes between the various compartments were measured. Transfer processes from the watershed to the lagoon were also examined. The temporal evolution of Cd and Cu content is assessed on the one hand by comparing the present data with former reference work (1992). On the other hand, a 5-box model is implemented in order to reduce the complex functioning of the lagoon to a system of differential equations. With the help of a numerical resolution method, the increase of metallic concentration levels is estimated since 1992. On the basis of 1997 data, two hypotheses are compared. The hypothesis that takes into account a growing increase of anthropogenic activities on the watershed gives, by extrapolation, results that are closer to field measurements. However, even with this hypothesis, the cadmium content in the lagoon is underestimated. This may signify that for this metal the evolution of the lagoon pollution is more important than a linear increase.     

Identifying Linkages Between Land Use,Geomorphology, and Aquatic Habitat in a Mixed-Use Watershed

The potential impacts of land use on large woody debris (LWD) were examined in Sourdough Creek Watershed, a rapidly growing area encompassing Bozeman, Montana, USA. We identified six land classes within a 250 m buffer extending on either side of Sourdough Creek and assessed aquatic habitat and geomorphologic variables within each class. All LWD pieces were counted, and we examined 14 other variables, including undercut bank, sinuosity, and substrate composition. LWD numbers were generally low and ranged from 0 to 8.2 pieces per 50 m of stream. Linear regression showed that LWD increased with distance from headwaters, riparian forest width, and sinuosity in four of the six land classes. Statistically significant differences between land classes for many aquatic habitat and geomorphologic variables indicated the impacts of different land uses on stream structure. We also found that practices such as active wood removal played a key role in LWD abundance. This finding suggests that managers should prioritize public education and outreach concerning the importance of in-stream wood, especially in mixed-use watersheds where wood is removed for either aesthetic reasons or to prevent stream flooding.     

中国跨省界流域生态补偿实践进展与思考

建立流域生态补偿机制是协调流域保护和发展的重要途径,自2012年全国首个跨省界流域新安江生态补偿机制试点实施以来,截至目前已有10个跨省界流域建立了生态补偿机制,区域生态环境质量明显改善,但是在机制建立和实践过程中还存在概念泛化、动能不足、效益不明显以及方法指导少等问题,针对上述问题,本文提出优先考虑在水源地上游,探索市场化、多元化的补偿方式,加快形成一套技术方法体系等建议,以期为我国流域生态补偿制度的推进和完善提供参考。     

Modeling of Sediment Yield From Anjeni-Gauged Watershed,Ethiopia Using SWAT Model1

Setegn, Shimelis G., Bijan Dargahi, Ragahavan Srinivasan, and Assefa M. Melesse, 2010. Modeling of Sediment Yield From Anjeni-Gauged Watershed, Ethiopia Using SWAT Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):514-526. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00431.x Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested for prediction of sediment yield in Anjeni-gauged watershed, Ethiopia. Soil erosion and land degradation is a major problem on the Ethiopian highlands. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the performance and applicability of SWAT model in predicting monthly sediment yield and assess the impacts of subbasin delineation and slope discretization on the prediction of sediment yield. Ten years monthly meteorological, flow and sediment data were used for model calibration and validation. The annual average measured sediment yield was 24.6 tonnes/ha. The annual average simulated sediment yield was 27.8 and 29.5 tones/ha for calibration and validation periods, respectively. The study found that the observed values showed good agreement with the simulated sediment yield with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.81, percent bias (PBIAS) = 28%, RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) = 0.23, and coefficient of determination (R²) = 0.86 for calibration and NSE = 0.79, PBIAS = 30%, RSR = 0.29, and R² = 0.84 for validation periods. The model can be used for further analysis of different management scenarios that could help different stakeholders to plan and implement appropriate soil and water conservation strategies.     

怒江流域森林资源的本土利用调查与分析

基于怒江流域北段高黎贡山自然保护区周边4个社区的森林资源利用状况详细调查数据,运用建房频率计算农村地区建房周期、气干密度换算薪材材积等方法,分别依本土居民的建材、薪材、围栏（篱）用材和非木材林产品（NWFPs）4种森林资源利用方式,计算、分析怒江流域北段森林资源当地利用的消耗量和消耗结构。结果显示：怒江流域北段建房材消耗量0.10 m³ /a·人,薪材3.87 m³/a·人,农地围栏用材0.019 m³/a·人,年户均采集以菌类和中药材为主的非木材林产品73.95 kg。表明消耗量最大的利用形式是薪材,而非传统认为的建房材和农地围栏材;农村社区木楞房、木片房和农地围栏“长期留存”,而薪材流量大“库存小”的表象,是导致认识偏差的原因。调查社区的地理位置、社区规模和民族组成等在怒江流域北段具较强代表性,结果可为调查区森林资源可持续经营提供参考,也可为高黎贡山（怒江）国家级自然保护区的科学管理提供依据.     

西苕溪流域土地利用对氮素输出影响研究

以位于太湖地区的西苕溪流域为研究区,利用Arcview3.2的水文模拟和空间分析扩展模块进行子流域划分和典型小流域选择,通过对2000年TM/ETM遥感影像解译获得流域土地利用数据.在2004年分3次(7月、9月、12月)监测了各个小流域出口的总氮浓度,用以表征流域氮素输出强度.基于以上数据,分析了小流域氮素输出的时空变化差异以及土地利用结构对氮素输出影响.结果表明:各个小流域氮素输出差异很大,空间上有从上游到下游逐渐增大的趋势,时间变化上,西苕溪流域中下游的小流域氮素输出7月>9月>12月,上游地区的小流域则与之相反,这与流域的降雨径流分布和土地利用方式差异有关.多个小流域的对比分析表明,流域土地利用结构对氮素输出的影响更大.流域内林地面积比例越大,氮输出强度越小;相反,与人类活动有关的土地利用类型如耕地和居民地比例增大将带来氮素输出增大的后果,而氮素输出的强度似乎与流域面积大小无关.