基于结构分解法的长江经济带产业排水量驱动因素评估

为分析长江经济带产业排水量变化的驱动因素,以2002年、2007年和2012年长江经济带11省市投入产出表、排水估计量为基础,利用基于投入产出的结构分解法对各省市数据进行比较静态分析,对驱动产业排水量变化的因素进行分解及定量评估,包括节水减排效应、投入结构效应、需求结构效应及规模效应.结果表明:①长江经济带产业排水量由增长趋势变为下降趋势,2002—2007年排水量增长了16.9%,2007—2012年排水量降低了0.4%,2002年、2007年、2012年产业平均耗水率为46%,上海市、江苏省等省市产业排水量下降趋势明显.②规模效应是驱动各省市产业排水增加的主要因素,其在2002—2007年、2007—2012年带动排水量分别增长了67%和61%;规模效应影响逐渐分化,上海市、江苏省、浙江省规模效应带动产业排水量增幅逐渐减弱.③节水减排效应是驱动排水量减少的最主要因素,其在2002—2007年、2007—2012年带动排水量分别减少了35%和60%,节水减排效应影响逐渐增强,各省市排水强度明显降低.④长江经济带大部分省市的需求结构效应驱动产业排水量不断减少,其驱动力的绝对值呈增长趋势;投入结构效应对产业排水量的驱动力较弱且变化规律性不明显.建议长江经济带通过技术进步、应用创新等提高清洁生产能力,通过需求及投入结构优化带动产业结构调整,对进一步降低产业排水量具有一定价值.      

POC的结构参数对DMCC发动机排放影响的试验研究

在一台直列4缸增压中冷电控单体泵柴油机的进气道上增加甲醇喷射装置,实现柴油甲醇二元燃料燃烧(DMDF)模式.利用废气分析仪对其主要气体排放进行测量,研究在排气管上加装的柴油颗粒氧化催化转化器结构参数对尾气催化效率的影响,试验结果表明:POC长度越长,对碳烟、THC、和未燃甲醇的转化效果越好,甲醇替代率为30%、POC长度为100 mm时,对碳烟、CO、THC和未燃甲醇的平均净化效率分别为15.00%、91.61%、75.56%、66.96%,长度增加至200 mm后,上述效率明显提高,分别提高到30.37%、99.29%、67.55%、95.44%;POC孔密度增加,POC对碳烟、CO及未燃甲醇的转化效率有小幅增加,甲醇替代率为30%时,孔密度从200目增加到300目,对碳烟、CO和未燃甲醇的催化效率分别从19.61%、94.66%、86.07%提高到23.06%、97.44%和88.56%;POC结构参数的改变对NO_x的转化效率影响不大.     

船体钢海水腐蚀研究进展

介绍了船体钢在海水中的腐蚀行为,总结了影响船体钢耐蚀性的因素及其改善耐蚀性的方法,总结了船体钢耐海水腐蚀性能研究、测试的试验方法,分析了试验方法对评价船体钢耐蚀性的适用性,指出了当前船体钢耐海水腐蚀性能研究的问题。     

豫西南环境变迁与土壤发生的研究

本文以豫西南的三个土壤剖面为对象，研究了土壤的形态、理化和矿物学特性，探索环境与土壤发生的关系．结果表明：发育在中更新世母质上的红粘土与毗邻区域的地带性土壤相比，具有较低的粘粒硅铝率、较小的风化淋溶系数和较高的游离氧化铁，既属于古环境景观影响下的产物，但又表现出有一定的复钙作用和较高的ＰＨ值．这些特性说明此种古土壤出露地表后，虽保留其残遗特征，却又进行着与现代生物气候条件相谐调的过程．     

Causal modelling of multivariate outcomes from developmental toxicity experiments

Exposure to developmental toxicants may cause foetal malformations, increase foetal death or resorption and reduce foetal weight. The correlations among these developmental endpoints have been reported, but their causal relationships have not been investigated. Structural equation models (path models) were applied to study the patterns of causation among the four developmental outcomes, number of viable foetuses, number of malformations, number of deaths/resorptions, and average foetal weight; these outcomes were modelled as response variables with the dose level and number of implants (litter size) modelled as independent variables. Three hypothesized path models were fitted to developmental toxicity data from a study of the herbicide 2,4,5-T exposure in mice. One model, which hypothesized that foetal weight, implicitly a mechanism such as cellular growth, affects both malformations and death/resorption (equivalently, viability) with no causation relationship between malformation and death/resorption, described data consistently well for three strains of mice. The most consistent relationship found was a strong direct effect of foetal weight on malformations, and the correlation between malformations and death/resorption (or reduced viability) was likely spurious.     

水体突发污染事件的在线生物监测技术研究进展

水体突发性污染事件的污染方式具有多样性,污染物种类具有复杂性。水体突发污染事件的特征决定在线生物监测的难度。结合受试生物种类和生物生理生态指标的不同,综合分析了已经报道的水体污染在线生物监测技术。根据统计分析结果,已经报道的水体突发性污染在线生物监测技术主要分为:基于生物行为变化的在线生物监测技术、基于生物生理变化的在线生物监测技术和基于综合生物指标的在线生物监测技术3类。在不同生物种类和生理生态指标分析基础上,对不同在线生物监测技术的基本原理和优缺点进行分析,也对不同在线生物监测技术存在的缺点提出解决的主要方案,为水体突发污染事件监测分析提供支持,以满足水体突发污染事件的在线监测和应急管理需求。     

Threats to Avifauna on Oceanic Islands

Abstract:  Results of the study by Blackburn et al. (2004 a ) of avifauna on oceanic islands suggest that distance from the mainland and time since European colonization have major influences on species extinctions and that island area is a significant but secondary contributing factor. After augmenting the data of the study on geographical properties for some of the islands they examined, we used a causal analysis approach with structural equation modeling to reexamine their conclusions. In our model geographical properties of islands, such as island area and isolation, were considered constraints on biological factors, such as the number of introduced mammalian predators and existing number of avifauna, that can directly or indirectly influence extinction. Of the variables we tested, island area had the greatest total influence on the threat of extinction due to its direct and indirect effects on the size of island avifauna. Larger islands had both a greater number of threatened bird species and more avifauna, increasing the number of species that could become threatened with extinction. Island isolation also had a significant, positive, and direct effect on threats to island avifauna because islands farther from the mainland had fewer current extant avifauna. Time since European colonization had a significant negative, but relatively weaker, influence on threats compared with the traditional biogeographic factors of island area and distance to the mainland. We also tested the hypothesis that the amount of threat is proportionally lower on islands that have had more extinctions (i.e., there is a "filter effect"). Because the proportion of bird extinctions potentially explained only 2.3% of the variation in the proportion of threatened species on islands, our results did not support this hypothesis. Causal modeling provided a powerful tool for examining threat of extinction patterns of known and hypothesized pathways of influence.     

岛屿地形下的核电厂护岸防洪设计研究

对国内第一个岛屿地形下核电厂的护岸防洪设计进行了研究,提出直立式护岸结构方案以满足核电厂防洪和避让毗邻海岛的要求。在波浪数值模拟计算结果基础上,开展了波浪整体物理模型试验、波浪局部整体物理模型试验和波浪断面物理模型试验,对护岸的越浪量和结构稳定性进行了优化验证。研究结果表明,岛屿地形下,波浪破碎和波能集中导致护岸堤身坡脚处波高增大,须加高挡浪墙和优化挡浪墙结构型式;在相同的越浪量标准下,采用直立堤结构相对斜坡堤结构对应的护岸挡浪墙的高程须明显加高;利用部分海岛地形斜坡高地作为厂区护岸一部分时,原状海岛地形斜坡高地处的波浪爬高效应明显,须加高邻近护岸挡浪墙的高程。     

丹江口水库水体氮的时空分布及入库通量

为解析丹江口水库水体氮的时空分布特征及主要污染来源,以丹江口库区及主要入库河流为研究对象,分析了水体氮的空间分布、季节及年际变化;利用回归分析,解析了氮污染驱动因素;并估算了入库河流氮通量及对库区氮污染负荷的贡献率. 结果表明:研究区水体ρ(TN)、ρ(NH₄+-N)分别在0.07~16.73和0.01~10.65 mg/L之间,年均值分别为2.34和0.71 mg/L,空间分布呈入库河流高于库区的趋势;季节特征表现为春季、冬季>秋季>夏季. 2005—2014年库区水体ρ(TN)整体呈先升后降的趋势,其中取水口陶岔断面ρ(TN)上升较快,2012年较2007年增加了1.5倍,2013年开始ρ(TN)有所下降,但仍然维持在较高水平. 近10年来库区水体ρ(NH₄+-N)始终维持在较低水平. 神定河、犟河、泗河、剑河等环库支流河口氮污染最严重,城镇化是造成流域水体氮污染的主要驱动力. 汉江TN入库量贡献最大,占63.0%,其中境外来水TN入库量占总量的59.2%,为达到丹江口水库生态环境保护要求的Ⅲ类水质(GB 3838—2002《地表水环境质量标准》)目标,汉江TN需削减量为16 715.0 t/a. 境内河流中,环库河流的TN入库量最大,其中泗河、老灌河、神定河、金钱河、犟河和天河等TN入库量较大,TN需削减量分别为 2 286.7、2 197.7、1 493.6、1 106.9、979.1和728.9 t/a.      

Association between resiliency and posttraumatic growth in firefighters: the role of stress appraisal

The purpose of this study was to establish the relation between resiliency and the level of positive changes, comprising posttraumatic growth in a group of firefighters experiencing job-related traumatic events and the mediating role of stress appraisal in this relation. The study was performed on a group of 100 firefighters from firefighting and rescue brigades, out of which 75 admitted to experiencing a traumatic event. Firefighters covered by the study were on average 31.51 years old (SD?=?6.34). A Polish version of Posttraumatic Growth Inventory, the Resiliency Assessment Scale and Stress Appraisal Questionnaire were used in the study. The results have shown that 22.7% of firefighters displayed low, 58.6% average and 18.7% high intensity of positive changes resulting from a traumatic event. Resiliency poorly correlates with posttraumatic growth expressed in changes in self-perception, and strongly correlates with stress appraisal, negatively correlates with threat and harm/loss and positively correlates with challenge. Appraisal of stress as a threat and challenge appeared to be mediators of the relationship between resiliency and posttraumatic growth.