两晋以来气候变化对太湖流域稻麦两熟复种的影响

太湖流域的稻麦两熟复种大约产生于东晋南朝时期（317～589年）,此后这一种植制度长期存在,并不断有所发展。考察发现,此一区域的稻麦两熟在历史上的大多数时候并无突出的季节矛盾,只是有两个时期例外。这两个时期一是明末清初,一是19世纪。太湖流域历史上突出的季节矛盾不由人口、品种等社会原因引起,而由气候变化这一自然因素导致。明末清初和19世纪分别是历史上最为寒冷的时期,是气候变冷造成了这一区域稻麦两熟突出的季节矛盾     

南通地区冰后期泥沙沉积量和环境变化的初步研究

南通地区位于长江三角洲北翼,其冰后期的环境变化以最大海侵时期为界,之前为海侵期,表现为海水入侵,陆地面积减少。之后海面趋于稳定,长江泥沙在河口地区持续沉积的作用下,表现为南通地区的逐渐成陆过程。利用收集的84个分布于南通地区及附近的钻孔剖面资料,将其按不同厚度的沉积相进行整理,结合前人研究成果,根据不同的数据基础运用IDW（Inverse Distance Weighted）插值对南通地区冰后期沉积厚度分布和环境变化过程分别进行了初步研究。结果表明：南通地区古河谷区是冰后期主要的泥沙沉积区,沉积物厚度、体积和重量大于北翼地区,北翼前缘沉积要大于后缘。冰后期古河谷区沉积泥沙4 8922×108 t,北翼地区沉积泥沙1 0453×108 t,二者之比约为47〖DK〗∶10,泥沙沉积强度之比约2〖DK〗∶1。从冰后期海侵初期到最大海侵时期,再到南通成陆的晚期,南通地区水域面积比例先由622%上升到95%,再缩减到331%,陆地面积比例先由378%缩减到5%,而后又上升至669%。尽管钻孔资料可以为南通地区有历史记载之前的时期提供宏观的环境变化框架,但由于钻孔资料在测年数据及沉积相的划分方面分辨率较低,在表现南通地区历史时期的环境变化方面存在不足,需要结合考古、文物等历史资料和土壤分布等自然地理信息进行更为详细的研究     

Changes in bird‐migration patterns associated with human‐induced mortality

Many bird populations have recently changed their migratory behavior in response to alterations of the environment. We collected data over 16 years on male Great Bustards (Otis tarda), a species showing a partial migratory pattern (sedentary and migratory birds coexisting in the same breeding groups). We conducted population counts and radio tracked 180 individuals to examine differences in survival rates between migratory and sedentary individuals and evaluate possible effects of these differences on the migratory pattern of the population. Overall, 65% of individuals migrated and 35% did not. The average distance between breeding and postbreeding areas of migrant individuals was 89.9 km, and the longest average movement of sedentary males was 3.8 km. Breeding group and migration distance had no effect on survival. However, mortality of migrants was 2.4 to 3.5 times higher than mortality of sedentary birds. For marked males, collision with power lines was the main cause of death from unnatural causes (37.6% of all deaths), and migratory birds died in collisions with power lines more frequently than sedentary birds (21.3% vs 6.3%). The percentage of sedentary individuals increased from 17% in 1997 to 45% in 2012. These results were consistent with data collected from radio‐tracked individuals: The proportion of migratory individuals decreased from 86% in 1997–1999 to 44% in 2006–2010. The observed decrease in the migratory tendency was not related to climatic changes (temperatures did not change over the study period) or improvements in habitat quality (dry cereal farmland area decreased in the main study area). Our findings suggest that human‐induced mortality during migration may be an important factor shaping the migration patterns of species inhabiting humanized landscapes.     

Short-term changes in mobile dunes at Port Alfred,South Africa

Development along the western beachfront of Port Alfred, which is situated along a sandy shoreline, increased markedly in the 1960s as the coastal town became a popular holiday resort. This development included the removal of coastal vegetation, which resulted in the destabilization of dunes and migration of sand westerly onto the road, West Beach parking lot, and lawns of the cabanas. Sand traps were constructed to collect sand blowing across the dunes over set periods, and the net sand movement along the mobile dune belt was calculated using Hunter's equation. The dunes show an easterly movement of sand at a rate of 3.5 m/yr, which is comparable with figures recorded along other areas of this coastline. Considering the wind regime and amount of sand movement along this coast, it is inappropriate to clear vegetation and develop within the dune region.     

Analysis of bank erosion on the Merced River,Yosemite Valley,Yosemite National Park,California, USA

Channel changes from 1919 to 1989 were documented in two study reaches of the Merced River in Yosemite National Park through a review of historical photographs and documents and a comparison of survey data. Bank erosion was prevalent and channel width increased an average of 27% in the upstream reach, where human use was concentrated. Here, trampling of the banks and riparian vegetation was common, and banks eroded on straight stretches as frequently as on meander bends. Six bridges in the upper reach constrict the channel by an average of 38% of the original width, causing severe erosion. In the downstream control reach, where human use was minimal, channel widths both decreased and increased, with a mean increase of only 4% since 1919. Bank erosion in the control reach occurred primarily on meander bends. The control reach also had denser stands of riparian vegetation and a higher frequency of large woody debris in channels. There is only one bridge in the lower reach, located at the downstream end. Since 1919, bank erosion in the impacted upstream reach contributed a significant amount of sediment (74,800 tonnes, equivalent to 2.0 t/km²/yr) to the river. An analysis of 75 years of precipitation and hydrologic records showed no trends responsible for bank erosion in the upper reach. Sediment input to the upper reach has not changed significantly during the study period. Floodplain soils are sandy, with low cohesion and are easily detached by lateral erosion. The degree of channel widening was positively correlated with the percentage of bare ground on the streambanks and low bank stability ratings. Low bank stability ratings were, in turn, strongly associated with high human use areas. Channel widening and bank erosion in the upper reach were due primarily to destruction of riparian vegetation by human trampling and the effect of bridge constrictions on high flow, and secondarily to poorly installed channel revetments. Several specific recommendations for river restoration were provided to park management.     

陕西关中地区水文气候状况对全球变暖的响应问题探讨

利用1953－1999年陕西关中地区年平均气温、年降永量和同期中国年平均气温距平资料，分析对比关中地区近50年气温变化与周期中国气温变化、气温与降水之间的关系，对关中地区日趋严重的水资源退化问题进行了探讨，揭示了全球变化的背景下关中地区气候变化的区域性特点及其气候干暖化趋势。关中地区未来气候将更趋干暖化，生态环境将更加脆弱。建议在西部大开发当中，把生态环境建设放在首要位置。     

FLOOD STAGE FORECASTING WITH SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES1

ABSTRACT: Machine learning techniques are finding more and more applications in the field of forecasting. A novel regression technique, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the statistical learning theory is explored in this study. SVM is based on the principle of Structural Risk Minimization as opposed to the principle of Empirical Risk Minimization espoused by conventional regression techniques. The flood data at Dhaka, Bangladesh, are used in this study to demonstrate the forecasting capabilities of SVM. The result is compared with that of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based model for one‐lead day to seven‐lead day forecasting. The improvements in maximum predicted water level errors by SVM over ANN for four‐lead day to seven‐lead day are 9.6 cm, 22.6 cm, 4.9 cm and 15.7 cm, respectively. The result shows that the prediction accuracy of SVM is at least as good as and in some cases (particularly at higher lead days) actually better than that of ANN, yet it offers advantages over many of the limitations of ANN, for example in arriving at ANN's optimal network architecture and choosing useful training set. Thus, SVM appears to be a very promising prediction tool.     

TIDE GATE INFLUENCES ON A TIDAL MARSH1

ABSTRACT: Construction of a tide gate at the mouth of the north channel of the Savannah River in Georgia has resulted in significant changes in salinities influencing marsh community changes. The tide gate is directly responsible for a 2 to 6 mile upstream displacement of salt water in the river. In the marsh, soil salinities ranged from 0.0 ppt at upstream sites to 12 ppt at downstream sites when the tide gate was in operation. Within two months of taking the tide gate out of operation, interstitial salinities at the downstream sites dropped to 4 ppt. Influences of the tide gate on marsh vegetation were modeled in a geographic information system. With the tide gate out of operation, the model predicts that freshwater marsh would increase in area by 340 percent.     

经济结构变动对环境污染物排放的影响分析

本文利用投入产出技术给出一类经济结构变动对环境污染物排放的影响分析模型,该方法着重分析了各产业部门的生产技术变动、最终需求变动及收入变动对环境污染物排放量的影响。