侧流化学磷回收强化生物除磷的模拟预测与试验验证

为了强化污水中生物除磷作用,本研究通过模拟预测与实验室试验验证了厌氧上清液侧流化学磷沉淀与回收对强化生物除磷的促进作用.模拟预测与试验结果表明,在进水COD/P=37.5工况下,当侧流比增加至30%时,通过化学磷沉淀（调节pH＞9.0）可使出水中TP浓度从碳源抑制时的＜6.0 mg·L-1（以P计）下降至≤1.0 mg·L-1（以P计）,同时可回收进水中P负荷的64%.经验证与校正后的TUD数学模型模拟预测有着与试验结果近乎一致的效果.因此,数学模拟技术完全有可能取代中间试验过程而直接将小试结果放大至工程应用.     

雷达电磁环境的联合建模与仿真

随着雷达灵敏度、精度的提高,对电磁环境的依赖性也越来越大.首先分析了美军的联合建模与仿真系统(JMASS),指出建立一个综合的、可重用的雷达电磁仿真环境是电子战仿真的关键;重点研究了基于球不变随机过程(SIRP)的K分布杂波模型,以及地面/海面的多路径效应模型;最后建立了雷达电磁环境的模型并进行了仿真.     

Seismic fragility analysis of a coupled tank-piping system based on artificial ground motions and surrogate modeling

The catastrophic consequences of recent NaTech events triggered by earthquakes highlighted the inadequacy of standard approaches to seismic risk assessment of chemical process plants. To date, the risk assessment of such facilities mainly relies on historical data and focuses on uncoupled process components. As a consequence, the dynamic interaction between process equipment is neglected. In response to this gap, researchers started a progressive integration of the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) risk assessment framework. However, a few limitations still prevent a systematic implementation of this framework to chemical process plants. The most significant are: (i) the computational cost of system-level simulations accounting for coupling between process equipment; (ii) the experimental cost for component-level model validation; (iii) a reduced number of hazard-consistent site-specific ground motion records for time history analyses.In response to these challenges, this paper proposes a recently developed uncertainty quantification-based framework to perform seismic fragility assessments of chemical process plants. The framework employs three key elements: (i) a stochastic ground-motion model to supplement scarcity of real records; (ii) surrogate modeling to reduce the computational cost of system-level simulations; (iii) a component-level model validation based on cost-effective hybrid simulation tests. In order to demonstrate the potential of the framework, two fragility functions are computed for a pipe elbow of a coupled tank-piping system.     

EVALUATION OF RUNOFF,EROSION, AND PHOSPHORUS MODELING SYSTEM—SIMPLE1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of Spatially Integrated Models for Phosphorus Loading and Erosion (SIMPLE) in predicting runoff volume, sediment loss, and phosphorus loading from two watersheds. The modeling system was applied to the 334 ha QOD subwatershed, part of the Owl Run watershed, located in Fauquier County, Virginia, and to the 2240 ha watershed, Battle Branch, located in Delaware County, Oklahoma. Simulation runs were conducted at cell and field scales, and simulation results were compared with observed data. Runoff volume and dissolved phosphorus loading were measured at the Battle Branch watershed. Runoff volume, sediment yield, and total phosphorus loading were measured at the QOD site. SIMPLE tended to underestimate runoff volumes during the dormant period, from November to March. The comparison between observed and predicted dissolved phosphorus showed better correlation than for observed and predicted total phosphorus loading. Cell level simulations provided similar estimates of runoff volume and phosphorus loading when compared to field level simulations for both watersheds. However, observed sediment yields better compared with the values predicted from the cell level simulation when compared to field level simulation. Finally, results of model evaluation indicated that SIMPLE's predictive ability is acceptable for screening applications but not for site-specific quantitative predictions.     

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES FOR WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLORADO AND SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASINS1

ABSTRACT: A wide variety of regional assessments of the water-related impacts of climatic change have been done over the past two decades, using different methods, approaches, climate models, and assumptions. As part of the Water Sector research for the National Assessment of the Implications of Climatic Variability and Change for the United States, several major summaries have been prepared, looking at the differences and similarities in results among regional research projects. Two such summaries are presented here, for the Colorado River Basin and the Sacramento River Basin. Both of these watersheds are vitally important to the social, economic, and ecological character of their regions; both are large snowmelt-driven basins; both have extensive and complex water management systems in place; and both have had numerous, independent studies done on them. This review analyzes the models, methods, climate assumptions, and conclusions from these studies, and places them in the context of the new climate scenarios developed for the National Assessment. Some significant and consistent impacts have been identified for these basins, across a wide range of potential climate changes. Among the most important is the shift in the timing of runoff that results from changes in snowfall and snowmelt dynamics. This shift has been seen in every regional result across these two basins despite differences in models and climate change assumptions. The implications of these impacts for water management, planning, and policy are discussed.     

Validating graph-based connectivity models with independent presence–absence and genetic data sets

Habitat connectivity is a key objective of current conservation policies and is commonly modeled by landscape graphs (i.e., sets of habitat patches [nodes] connected by potential dispersal paths [links]). These graphs are often built based on expert opinion or species distribution models (SDMs) and therefore lack empirical validation from data more closely reflecting functional connectivity. Accordingly, we tested whether landscape graphs reflect how habitat connectivity influences gene flow, which is one of the main ecoevolutionary processes. To that purpose, we modeled the habitat network of a forest bird (plumbeous warbler [Setophaga plumbea]) on Guadeloupe with graphs based on expert opinion, Jacobs’ specialization indices, and an SDM. We used genetic data (712 birds from 27 populations) to compute local genetic indices and pairwise genetic distances. Finally, we assessed the relationships between genetic distances or indices and cost distances or connectivity metrics with maximum-likelihood population-effects distance models and Spearman correlations between metrics. Overall, the landscape graphs reliably reflected the influence of connectivity on population genetic structure; validation R² was up to 0.30 and correlation coefficients were up to 0.71. Yet, the relationship among graph ecological relevance, data requirements, and construction and analysis methods was not straightforward because the graph based on the most complex construction method (species distribution modeling) sometimes had less ecological relevance than the others. Cross-validation methods and sensitivity analyzes allowed us to make the advantages and limitations of each construction method spatially explicit. We confirmed the relevance of landscape graphs for conservation modeling but recommend a case-specific consideration of the cost-effectiveness of their construction methods. We hope the replication of independent validation approaches across species and landscapes will strengthen the ecological relevance of connectivity models.     

成都平原蔬菜生产中灌溉水对农药渗漏的影响研究

针对成都平原蔬菜生产中大量施用农药、大量灌水的特点,首次在国内应用欧洲官方成熟的农药评估模型——PEARL模型,研究评估了成都平原当前蔬菜生产中的灌溉方式对两种不同特性农药的渗漏的影响。杀毒矾(土壤吸附力(KOM)为0 L/kg,半衰期(DT50)为80 d)在没有灌溉条件下,其渗出土体时的最大质量浓度是190μg.L-1,而有灌溉条件下其渗出质量浓度则可达523μg.L-1,是没有灌溉条件下的2.75倍。三唑磷(KOM为200 L.kg-1,DT50为60 d)在没有灌溉条件下,其渗出土体时的最大质量浓度是0.025μg.L-1,而有灌溉条件下其渗出质量浓度为0.13μg.L-1,比没有灌溉时提高了4.2倍。不管有没有灌溉三唑磷在该地区对地下水的污染风险都很小,而杀毒矾的风险则很高。因此,农药的化学特性是影响农药渗漏的最重要的因子。在蔬菜生产中应尽量选用被土壤吸附力强、半衰期短的农药,例如:三唑磷;农药在土壤中的移动载体是土壤水,不合理的灌溉会大大地加大农药淋溶,应当多使用微喷、滴灌等节水灌溉措施,减少使用漫灌等耗水多的原始灌溉方式。     

Developing shared qualitative models for complex systems

Understanding complex systems is essential to ensure their conservation and effective management. Models commonly support understanding of complex ecological systems and, by extension, their conservation. Modeling, however, is largely a social process constrained by individuals’ mental models (i.e., a small-scale internal model of how a part of the world works based on knowledge, experience, values, beliefs, and assumptions) and system complexity. To account for both system complexity and the diversity of knowledge of complex systems, we devised a novel way to develop a shared qualitative complex system model. We disaggregated a system (carbonate coral reefs) into smaller subsystem modules that each represented a functioning unit, about which an individual is likely to have more comprehensive knowledge. This modular approach allowed us to elicit an individual mental model of a defined subsystem for which the individuals had a higher level of confidence in their knowledge of the relationships between variables. The challenge then was to bring these subsystem models together to form a complete, shared model of the entire system, which we attempted through 4 phases: develop the system framework and subsystem modules; develop the individual mental model elicitation methods; elicit the mental models; and identify and isolate differences for exploration and identify similarities to cocreate a shared qualitative model. The shared qualitative model provides opportunities to develop a quantitative model to understand and predict complex system change.     

Improving inferences about private land conservation by accounting for incomplete reporting

Private lands provide key habitat for imperiled species and are core components of function protectected area networks; yet, their incorporation into national and regional conservation planning has been challenging. Identifying locations where private landowners are likely to participate in conservation initiatives can help avoid conflict and clarify trade-offs between ecological benefits and sociopolitical costs. Empirical, spatially explicit assessment of the factors associated with conservation on private land is an emerging tool for identifying future conservation opportunities. However, most data on private land conservation are voluntarily reported and incomplete, which complicates these assessments. We used a novel application of occupancy models to analyze the occurrence of conservation easements on private land. We compared multiple formulations of occupancy models with a logistic regression model to predict the locations of conservation easements based on a spatially explicit social–ecological systems framework. We combined a simulation experiment with a case study of easement data in Idaho and Montana (United States) to illustrate the utility of the occupancy framework for modeling conservation on private land. Occupancy models that explicitly accounted for variation in reporting produced estimates of predictors that were substantially less biased than estimates produced by logistic regression under all simulated conditions. Occupancy models produced estimates for the 6 predictors we evaluated in our case study that were larger in magnitude, but less certain than those produced by logistic regression. These results suggest that occupancy models result in qualitatively different inferences regarding the effects of predictors on conservation easement occurrence than logistic regression and highlight the importance of integrating variable and incomplete reporting of participation in empirical analysis of conservation initiatives. Failure to do so can lead to emphasizing the wrong social, institutional, and environmental factors that enable conservation and underestimating conservation opportunities in landscapes where social norms or institutional constraints inhibit reporting.