Using environmental heterogeneity to plan for sea‐level rise

Environmental heterogeneity is increasingly being used to select conservation areas that will provide for future biodiversity under a variety of climate scenarios. This approach, termed conserving nature's stage (CNS), assumes environmental features respond to climate change more slowly than biological communities, but will CNS be effective if the stage were to change as rapidly as the climate? We tested the effectiveness of using CNS to select sites in salt marshes for conservation in coastal Georgia (U.S.A.), where environmental features will change rapidly as sea level rises. We calculated species diversity based on distributions of 7 bird species with a variety of niches in Georgia salt marshes. Environmental heterogeneity was assessed across six landscape gradients (e.g., elevation, salinity, and patch area). We used 2 approaches to select sites with high environmental heterogeneity: site complementarity (environmental diversity [ED]) and local environmental heterogeneity (environmental richness [ER]). Sites selected based on ER predicted present‐day species diversity better than randomly selected sites (up to an 8.1% improvement), were resilient to areal loss from SLR (1.0% average areal loss by 2050 compared with 0.9% loss of randomly selected sites), and provided habitat to a threatened species (0.63 average occupancy compared with 0.6 average occupancy of randomly selected sites). Sites selected based on ED predicted species diversity no better or worse than random and were not resilient to SLR (2.9% average areal loss by 2050). Despite the discrepancy between the 2 approaches, CNS is a viable strategy for conservation site selection in salt marshes because the ER approach was successful. It has potential for application in other coastal areas where SLR will affect environmental features, but its performance may depend on the magnitude of geological changes caused by SLR. Our results indicate that conservation planners that had heretofore excluded low‐lying coasts from CNS planning could include coastal ecosystems in regional conservation strategies.     

Conservation implications of anthropogenic impacts on visual communication and camouflage

Anthropogenic environmental impacts can disrupt the sensory environment of animals and affect important processes from mate choice to predator avoidance. Currently, these effects are best understood for auditory and chemosensory modalities, and recent reviews highlight their importance for conservation. We examined how anthropogenic changes to the visual environment (ambient light, transmission, and backgrounds) affect visual communication and camouflage and considered the implications of these effects for conservation. Human changes to the visual environment can increase predation risk by affecting camouflage effectiveness, lead to maladaptive patterns of mate choice, and disrupt mutualistic interactions between pollinators and plants. Implications for conservation are particularly evident for disrupted camouflage due to its tight links with survival. The conservation importance of impaired visual communication is less documented. The effects of anthropogenic changes on visual communication and camouflage may be severe when they affect critical processes such as pollination or species recognition. However, when impaired mate choice does not lead to hybridization, the conservation consequences are less clear. We suggest that the demographic effects of human impacts on visual communication and camouflage will be particularly strong when human‐induced modifications to the visual environment are evolutionarily novel (i.e., very different from natural variation); affected species and populations have low levels of intraspecific (genotypic and phenotypic) variation and behavioral, sensory, or physiological plasticity; and the processes affected are directly related to survival (camouflage), species recognition, or number of offspring produced, rather than offspring quality or attractiveness. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic effects on the visual environment may be of similar importance relative to conservation as anthropogenic effects on other sensory modalities.     

Spatial Patterns of Breeding Success of Grizzly Bears Derived from Hierarchical Multistate Models

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low‐elevation wetlands or mid‐elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy—herbaceous alpine ecotones—were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. Patrones Espaciales del Éxito Reproductivo de Osos Pardos, Derivados de Modelos Jerárquicos Multi‐Estado     

Are the costs worth the benefits? Shared perception and the aggregation of organizational climate ratings

A definitional component of organizational climate is the focus on employees' shared perceptions of the focal climate domain. To operationalize the notion of sharedness, researchers typically aggregate employees' domain‐specific climate perceptions to a higher level and justify this aggregation using quantitative indices of agreement. In the current paper, I argue that although accounting for sharedness among employees can provide some valuable insight, our overreliance on sharedness obscures some of the very organizational phenomena of interest. I discuss this issue by focusing on four costs of making unfounded assumptions regarding sharedness: (a) Aggregation assumes individual differences are a function of random error; (b) aggregation assumes that social situations are uniform across employees; (c) aggregation assumes that the unit of analysis is clear‐cut; and (d) aggregation assumes the group mean is meaningful. I argue that researchers carefully need to weigh the costs of violating these assumptions against the expected benefits of aggregating employees' climate perceptions, recognizing that sometimes employees' perceptions (i.e., psychological climate) might provide greater insight into phenomena of interest. Although I discuss these costs within the context of organizational climate research, these arguments apply to other research areas where individual perceptions are aggregated (e.g., research on leadership and teams).     

Interactions between Carbon Sequestration and Shade Tree Diversity in a Smallholder Coffee Cooperative in El Salvador

Agroforestry systems have substantial potential to conserve native biodiversity and provide ecosystem services. In particular, agroforestry systems have the potential to conserve native tree diversity and sequester carbon for climate change mitigation. However, little research has been conducted on the temporal stability of species diversity and aboveground carbon stocks in these systems or the relation between species diversity and aboveground carbon sequestration. We measured changes in shade‐tree diversity and shade‐tree carbon stocks in 14 plots of a 35‐ha coffee cooperative over 9 years and analyzed relations between species diversity and carbon sequestration. Carbon sequestration was positively correlated with initial species richness of shade trees. Species diversity of shade trees did not change significantly over the study period, but carbon stocks increased due to tree growth. Our results show a potential for carbon sequestration and long‐term biodiversity conservation in smallholder coffee agroforestry systems and illustrate the opportunity for synergies between biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. Interacciones entre el Secuestro de Carbono y la Diversidad de Árboles de Sombra en una Cooperativa de Café de Pequeños Agricultores en El Salvador     

Understanding Interaction Effects of Climate Change and Fire Management on Bird Distributions through Combined Process and Habitat Models

Abstract: Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process‐based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf‐area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species’ use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.     

中国城市热岛时空特征及其影响因子的分析

全球气候变暖背景下,城市热岛效应会加重城市地区的热胁迫,对人类健康和生存发展提出严峻挑战.近年来我国雾-霾污染情况严重,但雾-霾对城市热岛影响的认识仍较匮乏.本研究基于MODIS遥感卫星地表温度数据,明确了我国2003~2013年白天、夜间以及四季城市热岛的空间变化,并从生物物理学和生物化学角度定量分析其控制机制.结果表明,影响我国白天城市热岛强度的主要因素为人口、农田灌溉和植被活动.纬度、降水量、反照率以及气溶胶浓度是夜间城市热岛强度的主控因子.从对比城乡粗糙度、反照率等生物物理学属性的角度,揭示了乡村背景环境对城市热岛分析的重要影响.结果表明,雾-霾治理可以缓解我国夜间城市热岛现象和热胁迫,有利于缓解区域甚至全球气候变化.     

模拟气候升温对湿地土壤微生物群落及磷素形态的影响

通过构建微宇宙湿地柱模拟气候升温的方法,采用高通量测序和核磁共振技术,分别研究了湿地土壤微生物群落和磷素形态对暖化作用的响应特征.结果表明,暖化作用导致了Firmicutes、Clostridia、Clostridiales、Clostridiaceae和Clostridium的相对丰度分别显著下降65%~98%、69%~87%、67%~87%、73%~97%和74%~93%,这表明暖化作用对不同分类水平上的物种Firmicutes到Clostridium具有显著的抑制效应.通过主坐标分析和聚类分析,不同湿地柱采样点的暖化组与对照组样本表现出显著的分离特征,揭示了暖化作用能够诱导微生物群落组成发生显著性变化.磷酸单酯和正磷酸盐是各湿地柱土壤主导的磷素形态,同时暖化作用导致了XX湿地柱采样点的磷酸单酯和正磷酸盐相对丰度分别显著升高275%和下降20%,JH湿地柱采样点的磷酸单酯和多聚磷酸盐相对丰度分别显著升高85%和下降49%,这表明不同磷素形态对暖化作用的响应具有土壤异质性特征.通过典型对应分析,揭示了暖化条件下微生物群落组成的显著变化对磷素形态具有显著的影响效应.     

南京江北核心区气候环境宜居性评价

气候环境条件是影响宜居的一个重要因素。运用多层次评价模型,从气象灾害、大气环境、人体健康及生态气象等4个层面筛选出20项指标,构建区域气候环境宜居性的评价体系,基于层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标的权重,并以南京江北核心区为例,对其宜居水平进行评价。结果表明:在青奥生态建设期间(2011—2014年),研究区的宜居水平整体呈上升趋势,属于宜居范畴,接近非常宜居的标准。这反映青奥会期间的环境整治与灾害防治工作初见成效,对江北核心区的宜居性起正效应作用。     

Sensitivity of Precipitation Statistics to Urban Growth in a Subtropical Coastal Megacity Cluster

This short paper presents an investigation on how human activities may or may not affect precipitation based on numerical simulations of precipitation in a benchmark case with modified lower boundary conditions, representing different stages of urban development in the model. The results indicate that certain degrees of urbanization affect the likelihood of heavy precipitation significantly, while less urbanized or smaller cities are much less prone to these effects. Such a result can be explained based on our previous work where the sensitivity of precipitation statistics to surface anthropogenic heat sources lies in the generation of buoyancy and turbulence in the planetary boundary layer and dissipation through triggering of convection. Thus only mega cities of sufficient size, and hence human-activity-related anthropogenic heat emission, can expect to experience such effects. In other words, as cities grow, their effects upon precipitation appear to grow as well.