生计资本与生计策略关系研究——以张掖市甘州区为例

农民的生计安全与质量问题是当今中国农村的核心问题,稳定的生计可以使有关的政策协调发展、消除贫困并可持续地利用资源.本文采用可持续生计框架为研究基础,农户的生计资产为框架核心,通过建立可持续生计评价指标体系,对农户的生计资产状况和由此决定的资产配置方式--生计策略及二者之间的关系进行初步的研究探讨.结果表明:对张掖市甘州区农户而盲,物质资本的值最高(其值为0.609),人力资本的数值相对较高(其值为0.516),社会资本次之(其值为0.354),金融资本和自然资本的数值相对较低(其值分别为0.286和0.241).在其他条件不变的情况下,自然资本每增加一个单位,将引起农户选择以非农为主与以农业为主生计策略的发生比缩小0.119倍;当其他解释变量不变时,金融资本每增加一个单位,将引起农户选择以非农为主与以农业为主生计策略的发生比扩大9.698倍.所以要想实现农户生计多样化,加强农户抵御风险的能力,政府就必须加强对其资金、技术等方面的支持,使其有能力和资本储备从农业生产转向二、三产业,从而促使农户生计水平得以提高.     

Predicting deer-vehicle collisions in an urban area

Collisions with deer and other large animals are increasing, and the resulting economic costs and risks to public safety have made mitigation measures a priority for both city and wildlife managers. We created landscape models to describe and predict deer-vehicle collision (DVCs) within the City of Edmonton, Alberta. Models based on roadside characteristics revealed that DVCs occurred frequently where roadside vegetation was both denser and more diverse, and that DVCs were more likely to occur when the groomed width of roadside right-of-ways was smaller. No DVCs occurred where the width of the vegetation-free or manicured roadside buffer was greater than 40 m. Landscape-based models showed that DVCs were more likely in more heterogeneous landscapes where road densities were lower and speed limits were higher, and where non-forested vegetation such as farmland was in closer proximity to larger tracts of forest. These models can help wildlife and transportation managers to identify locations of high collision frequency for mitigation. Modifying certain landscape and roadside habitats can be an effective way to reduce deer-vehicle collisions.     

环境税条件下项目可进入与退出期权博弈分析

环境税是解决当前日趋严重的环境与经济发展冲突问题的有效手段之一,研究其如何影响投资者进入与退出项目的竞争策略是更好地制定环境税收政策的前提。与现有文献不同,本文应用期权博弈理论,构建煤电项目双寡头期权博弈模型,分进入和退出两种情况分析项目最优转换策略,并且定量分析环境税税率对最优转换临界值的影响。结果表明:环境税税率与最优转换临界值呈正比关系,即环境税率越低,项目越容易进入,并且更加难以退出;当存在竞争威胁时,投资者会加速进入与退出项目,当环境税强度逐渐变大时,将超过项目相互竞争的影响并起主要作用;在进入情况时存在等待、抢先进入和同时进入均衡,在退出情况时存在不退出、抢先退出和同时退出均衡,最后,分别给出各个均衡条件下环境税政策及影响,为政府制定环境税政策提供一种分析思路。     

Rural Households’ Attitude and Economic Strategies Toward the Conversion of Cropland to Forest and Grassland Program (CCFG): A Case Study in Qira,China

The Conversion of Cropland to Forest and Grassland Program (CCFG), which was initiated by the Chinese government in 1999, is a cropland retirement program with integrated objectives for ecological preservation and local development. The purpose of this article was to study the influencing factors of attitude and economic strategies in rural households toward the CCFG. Rural households’ knowledge, attitude and economic strategies toward the CCFG were investigated through a questionnaire survey in Qira, China. Influencing factors of attitude and strategies of households were analyzed using a logit model technique. The analysis indicated that household’s income level, environmental knowledge of the program, and program implementation were significant influencing factors in a household’s attitude toward the CCFG, while major influencing factors of household strategies were their regional background and availability of income generation sources. Meaningful association was not found between attitude and strategy choices. Rich households had more strategy choices, while poor households were usually confined to low input strategies with uncertain income. To sustain their livelihood, the poor need extra assistances in marketing, loan granting, employment training, information, and technical services.     

广州市生态风险重点及其防范策略

为了构建更适宜居住生活、更适宜创业发展的山水田园型生态城市，为实现城市可持续发展的总目标，广州市必须系统而有重点地防范生态风险，解决制约广州城市发展的重点和潜在的战略生态问题，保障城市生态安全。本文着重探讨了广州城市发展中的台风、暴雨、洪涝、临海重工业的发展布局与近岸海域生态系统的保护、饮用水保障与水环境质量、机动车尾气污染与大气环境质量等重点生态环境问题及其防范策略。     

新时期中国粮食供需平衡态势及粮食安全观的重构

粮食安全是保证任何人在任何时候都能得到为了生存和健康所需要的足够食物。新时期（2015-2050年）我国国内农业资源开发潜力已接近极限,中国粮食安全的总体思路正在面临重构。粮食安全在个人层面是营养安全,在国家层面是国家粮食的可获得能力,国家粮食可获得能力包括粮食生产能力和粮食进口能力,论文从个人营养安全和国家粮食可获得能力视角,对新时期我国粮食供需平衡进行分析,结果表明,在维持现有粮食生产能力的情况下,我国粮食安全保障程度为110.88%~117.49%,粮食具有保障平衡的基本能力,口粮安全保障程度为158.57%~168.02%,口粮具有保障充分平衡的能力,而饲料粮的保障程度只有79.41%~84.15%,保障程度不足。这一有所宽裕的粮食供需平衡态势为允许小幅度市场波动来实现粮食供需动态平衡提供了弹性空间,也为国家粮食政策调整提供了契机和条件。为建立我国新时期粮食安全保障体系,确保粮食供求基本平衡,建议：1）在资源端建立基本农田制度,维持粮食可持续生产能力;2）在生产端逐步发展经营规模较大的专业化粮食生产实体;3）在流通环节充分利用现代网络技术和电子商务模式,培育全国性和区域性现代粮食市场体系,融入国际市场,确保国家粮食安全的有效供应;4）在储备环节完善粮食储备体系,调整粮食储备的结构和规模。     

Stakeholder Management for Conservation Projects: A Case Study of Ream National Park, Cambodia1

The paper gives an account of the development and implementation of a stakeholder management framework at Ream National Park, Cambodia. Firstly, the concept of stakeholder is reviewed in management and in conservation literatures. Secondly, the context in which the stakeholder framework was implemented is described. Thirdly, a five-step methodological framework is suggested: (1) stakeholder analysis, (2) stakeholder mapping, (3) development of generic strategies and workplan, (4) presentation of the workplan to stakeholders, and (5) implementation of the workplan. This framework classifies stakeholders according to their level of influence on the project and their potential for the conservation of natural resources. In a situation characterized by conflicting claims on natural resources, park authorities were able to successfully develop specific strategies for the management of stakeholders. The conclusion discusses the implications of the Ream experience and the generalization of the framework to other protected areas.     

大连市金州区外向型农业的空间发展战略

本文在深入分析大连市金州区发展外向型农业优势的基础上,探讨了该区外向型农业空间发展的原则和指导思想,初步界定了基地空间范围及未来的发展布局,为金州区外向型农业空间发展战略提供了理论依据。     

国民灾害感知能力测评指标体系研究

国民灾害感知状态在一定程度上会影响到政府减灾战略的制定和实施。建立国民灾害感知能力测评指标体系,采用问卷调查方式,运用比较分析法,对国民个性特征与灾害感知能力的关系进行了研究,结果表明:(1)从性别特征来看,女性的灾害感知能力强于男性;(2)从年龄特征来看,灾害感知能力由强到弱依次为:20～30岁、0～20岁、40～50岁、30～40岁、50～60岁、60岁以上;(3)从文化程度来看,灾害感知能力由强到弱依次为:高中或中专、大专以上、文盲、初中、小学;(4)从职业特征来看,灾害感知能力由强到弱依次为:学生、农民、教师、工人、公务员;(5)从居住地环境特征来看,灾害感知能力由强到弱依次为:中小城市、农村、乡镇、大城市。     

Geopolitics of global climate change and energy security

Currently,the problem of climate change is already far beyond the category of scientific research,and it affects the economic operation mode,interests pattern,and geographical relationships and becomes the focus of global governance.During the transition period of the international economic and social development and the critical transformation period of the world geopolitical pattern reorganization,China’s industrialization is still at the intermediate stage,and tackling with climate change is also China’s internal demand under this development stage.With more influence of climate change on national competitiveness,climate change and geopolitics present complex multiple relations,and climate change in the era of geopolitical landscape gradually affected the national strategy and diplomacy.This article offered some relevant suggestions based on evaluating the new geopolitical characteristics of climate change:(1)weighing of interests and properly handling the complex relations among major powers during international climate negotiations;(2)strengthening risk judgments and actively cooperating with the United States and the European Union on energy and climate change;(3)relying on the"One Belt(Silk Road Economic Belt)and One Road(twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road)"to ensure China’s energy security and actively participating in the global energy governance;(4)strengthening the"south-south cooperation"mechanism innovation and increasing the investment.